I begged Santa — let Trump lead the Republican Party to defeat

Los Angeles Times

Column: I begged Santa — let Trump lead the Republican Party to defeat

Nicholas Goldberg – December 26, 2022

Former President Donald Trump greets supporters during his Save America rally in Perry, Ga., on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Ben Gray)
Former President Trump at a “Save America” rally in Perry, Ga., in 2021. (Ben Gray / Associated Press)

Prognostication is thankless work, especially when it comes to politics.

But because it’s the happy holiday season, I’m going to pay a little attention to a faint and uncharacteristically optimistic voice in the back of my head and lay out what to me seems to be a not-inconceivable and oh-so-delicious scenario of the future.

It is this — that Donald Trump sticks around to run a real 2024 campaign, as promised. But instead of successfully rallying his loyal troops and cruising demonically back into power, he continues his downward slide in the polls, becomes increasingly desperate — and foments within his own party the sort of self-destructive internecine trouble that he alone has the ability to stir up.

In this scenario, instead of causing fear and trembling in Democrats, he spews his bitterness and bile at his fellow Republicans, further weakening his already splintering party, trolling opponents, sowing chaos, division and confusion and making a bitter, bruising battle out of the primary process because he can still command the loyalty of millions of voters.

As a result, the Republicans lose big in November 2024.

Why would Trump do such a thing? Because why not!

He’s not a party loyalist. He doesn’t feel a smidgen of allegiance to his fellow Republicans or to conservative ideology or to the GOP’s ultimate victory over the Democrats. He’s all about Trump, remember? And anyone who gets in his way is an enemy.

Could it really happen? Could Trump cripple his own party that badly?

Well, the latest holiday elf to hint at these glad tidings is no left-of-center optimist or self-serving Democratic operative. It’s none other than that grand old man of the GOP, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Gingrich told the New York Times that he was worried about what he called a “1964 division” — a rancorous, disabling rift between Trump’s supporters and the anti-Trump wing of the party comparable to the divide in 1964 between the conservative Republicans who backed Barry Goldwater for president and the moderates who supported Nelson Rockefeller.

“I can imagine a Trump-anti-Trump war over the next two years that just guarantees Biden’s reelection in a landslide and guarantees that Democrats control everything,” Gingrich said.

You can be sure that’s what I asked Santa for. It’d be a better gift than 1,000 Trump NFT trading cards depicting the former president in superhero spandex or white tie and tails or riding a giant red, white and blue elephant.

Just imagine how it could play out.

Trump could seek the nomination and, in the process, lay into his fellow Republicans so viciously that the eventual nominee would emerge battered beyond recognition. (Trump’s already starting his attacks on Florida Gov. “Ron DeSanctimonious.” Heh-heh.)

If he loses the nomination, Trump could refuse to endorse the winner. Or come out against the nominee, which would be a big deal given how many supporters he has.

He could lose the nomination and (petulant spoiler that he is) run as an independent.

He could even walk away and start his own party — the MAGA Party, let’s say, which could siphon off millions of rural, non-college-educated white voters from the GOP.

After all, he’s got no sense of fair play or good sportsmanship, and no concept of limited war.

It’s obvious that Republican voters are already badly divided over Trump.

On the one hand, he won 74 million votes in 2020. And some substantial portion of those voters are unwaveringly loyal to him, not to the party. The Q-Anoners, Oath Keepers, Proud Boys and their ilk, for example. They’re not going to shift their allegiances to the Jeb Bushes of the world. Probably not to the Cruzes, Rubios or DeSantises either.

“I don’t think we should underestimate the stickiness of [Trump’s] base,” one Democratic operative told the L.A. Times recently.

On the other hand, Trump is currently declining in the polls, thanks to the Jan. 6 committee hearings, the Justice Department investigation and the other criminal inquiries — and to the embarrassing fact that his handpicked candidates in the midterms performed so badly that his influence is being carefully reevaluated.

He’s damaged goods, to say the least. Some Republicans — the rational ones — are beginning to run for the hills.

In a Wall Street Journal poll released last week, 71% of Republicans said they held a favorable view of him, down from 85% in March and 90% or higher during most of his presidency.

Party bigwigs, eager to see Republican voters united behind a strong presidential candidate, had no doubt hoped Trump would not run again. When he declared several weeks ago that he would, Alyssa Farah Griffin, a former director of strategic communications for Trump, said, “No credible person in the Republican Party wanted this announcement today.”

Fading away quietly is not Trump’s style. And it would be foolish to discount his influence. For all his bombast and bluster and his current travails, he’s shown a remarkable political resilience and acumen.

So an acrimonious, polarizing, punishing 2024 battle is entirely possible.

On the other hand, all my cheerful prognostication could be wrong.

This could be the end of the Trump era; he could slink away from the 2024 battle rather than risk becoming a diminished and rejected “loser,” and the GOP could rebound. Or, worse, he could keep his base and grow it again through his peculiar brand of political charisma and reemerge as president for a second term. That would be an unspeakable disaster.

But from Christmas to New Year’s, at least, I’m choosing to believe in the joyful possibility of a Trump-instigated Republican meltdown.

What a holiday gift that would be! Here’s hoping.

China is losing its place as the center of the world’s supply chains. Here are 5 places supply chains are going instead.

Business Insider

China is losing its place as the center of the world’s supply chains. Here are 5 places supply chains are going instead.

Huileng Tan – December 26, 2022

Chinese factory economy
China is the factory of the world, but COVID-19 has shown the world needs more than China to keep supply chains robust.Visual China Group/Getty Images
  • China’s COVID-19 policies are pushing companies to diversify supply chains away from the country.
  • They had already begun moving out over geopolitical tensions and tariffs from the Trump era.
  • India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Bangladesh are stepping up to replace the world’s factory.

China has been the factory of the world for the past four decades. The pandemic triggered a reckoning of this status.

An employee works on the assembly line of electric bicycles at a workshop of Yadea Technology Group Co., Ltd.
China’s draconian COVID-19 restrictions have hit global supply chains.Chen Shichuan/VCG/Getty Images

China’s rise as the world’s factory spanned four decades and ushered in an era of globalization and integrated supply chains.

That facade started to crumble around 2018 after President Donald Trump launched a trade war against the East Asian giant. This, in turn, has prompted investors to reassess their geopolitical risks.

While some investors did move parts of their manufacturing facilities out of China at the time, it was the pandemic — and China’s zero-COVID policy — that drove home the importance of not depending on one country for manufacturing needs.

“The geopolitical tensions, in themselves, may not have resulted into this level of realignment of supply chains, but COVID certainly provided that extra vision, extra fillip, the extra fuel to the fire,” Ashutosh Sharma, a research director at the market-research firm Forrester, told Insider this month.

And the effects of the trade war linger. President Joe Biden hasn’t put the kibosh on the elevated tariffs Trump imposed on China — in fact, in October, he imposed export controls on shipping equipment to Chinese-owned factories making advanced logic chips. This further burdened a strained relationship.

To navigate this complicated web of US-China trade tensions, multinationals are, now more than ever, looking to hedge their business risks.

Here are five countries where China’s supply chains are moving to.

India is trying to unseat China in higher-end manufacturing, with the iPhone maker Apple and chipmakers eyeing its vast land and young population.

An Indian employee works on an air conditioning unit at the Panasonic 'eco ideas' factory at Jhajjar in Haryana on December 12, 2012.
India has vast land and a young population.Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty Images

With its vast land and large, young population, India is a logical alternative to China as the world’s factory.

India is set to surpass China in 2023 as the most populous country, the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in a July report.

Apple has already moved some of its iPhone production to the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka and is exploring moving its iPad manufacturing to the South Asian nation. JPMorgan analysts expect Apple to move 5% of its iPhone 14 production to India by the end of 2022, they wrote in a September note. They said they believed 1 in 4 iPhones would be made in India by 2025.

“India has a large labor pool, a long history of manufacturing, and government support for boosting industry and exports,” Julie Gerdeman, the CEO of Everstream, a platform for supply-chain risk management, told Insider. “Because of this, many are exploring whether Indian manufacturing is a viable alternative to China.”

The move is easier said than done.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been working on attracting foreign direct investments since he took office in 2014, sending FDI to a record $83.6 billion in the past fiscal year, according to government data.

But significant hurdles still exist — even though the Indian government is boosting its appeal for foreign investments, it’s harder to do business in the country than in China, partly because of bureaucracy and multiple stakeholders that prolong decision-making.

Vietnam has been undergoing rapid economic reform since 1986, which has yielded significant returns.

Garment factory workers working in a factory in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Garment-factory workers in Hanoi, Vietnam.Manan Vatsyayana / AFP

As a communist country, Vietnam — like China — has been undergoing rapid economic reform since 1986.

The reforms have yielded results, propelling Vietnam from “one of the world’s poorest nations to a middle-income economy in one generation,” The World Bank said in a November post.

In 2021, Vietnam attracted over $31.15 billion in foreign-direct-investment pledges — up more than 9% from the prior year, according to the country’s Ministry of Planning and Investment. About 60% of the investments went into the manufacturing-and-processing sector.

Vietnam’s key strengths are in the manufacturing of apparel, footwear, and electronics and electrical appliances.

Apple has already moved some iPhone manufacturing to Vietnam and is planning to move some of its MacBook production to the Southeast Asian nation.

Other companies that have shifted some of their production lines out of China to Vietnam are Nike, Adidas, and Samsung.

Thailand’s FDI rose threefold between 2020 and 2021.

Natawut Lorboon works at the production line of Dunan Metals Thailand Co., Ltd, in the Thai-Chinese Rayong industrial zone in Rayong Province, Thailand, Nov. 8, 2022.
Thailand is a key auto and electronics manufacturing hub.Rachen Sageamsak/Xinhua/Getty Images

As Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, Thailand has been moving up the value chain in manufacturing and is a production hub for car parts, vehicles, and electronics, with multinationals such as Sony and Sharp setting up shop there.

Sony said in 2019 it was closing its Beijing smartphone plant to cut costs and relocated some of the production to Thailand. Sharp said in the same year it was moving some of its printer production to Thailand because of the US-China trade war.

It’s not just international firms. Even Chinese companies have relocated parts of their supply chains to Thailand. Companies producing solar panels, such as Shanghai’s JinkoSolar, are moving their production to the island nation to take advantage of lower costs and avoid geopolitical tensions, the South China Morning Post reported in July.

“Setting up manufacturing plants abroad didn’t come from [the pursuit of] opportunities, it is more of a strategy to deal with challenges to gain market access,” Zhuang Yan, the president of Canadian Solar, said at an industry event in July, SCMP reported.

Foreign direct investments rose threefold to 455.3 billion Thai baht, or about $13.1 million, between 2020 to 2021, the Thailand Board of Investment announced in February.

Bangladesh is already a beneficiary of the supply-chain shift away from China. It now wants a bigger slice of the pie.

Women manufacturing clothes in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is home to a huge garment-manufacturing sector.Mustasinur Rahman Alvi/Eyepix Group/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Even before the COVID-19 lockdowns crippled China’s manufacturing sector, Bangladesh was a rising star in the garment-manufacturing sector.

Bangladesh’s rise was primarily due to rising labor costs in China predating Trump’s presidency.

The cost difference is large — the average monthly salary of a worker in Bangladesh is $120, or less than one-fifth of the $670 a factory worker takes home in the southern-China manufacturing hub of Guangzhou, Mostafiz Uddin, the owner of the Bangladeshi apparel manufacturer Denim Expert, told Insider.

“Moreover, rising material costs is pushing apparel companies to look for alternative destinations like Bangladesh where production prices are comparatively low,” Uddin said.

Despite a high-profile building collapse that killed at least 1,132 people in April 2013 and dented Bangladesh’s work-safety reputation, its garment-manufacturing industry is a key pillar of its economy, accounting for nearly 85% of shipments, or over $42 billion of the country’s exports, in 2021. The country is also the world’s second-largest garments exporter, after China.

Bangladesh is now working to attract investments beyond the garment sector into others, including pharmaceuticals and agriculture processing.

Malaysia has for years been eyeing opportunities emerging from companies shifting away from China.

An attendant checks bottles on a production line at the Coca-Cola bottling plant in Nilai on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur.
Malaysia’s FDI inflows hit a five-year high of $48.1 billion in 2021.Manan Vatsyayana/AFP/Getty Images

Malaysia has been eyeing opportunities from the manufacturing shift out of China for the past few years.

It has made some headway with the efforts, as it has attracted at least 32 projects that have relocated from China to Malaysia, the Malaysian Investment Development Authority said in July 2020. The authority didn’t provide details of the projects or of the companies that moved.

But even before the pandemic, tech investments into Malaysia had been rising because of lower labor costs and US-China trade tensions. Major deals over the past few years included a 1.5 billion Malaysian ringgit, or $339 million, investment by the US chip giant Micron over five years starting in 2018. Jabil, a US company that makes iPhone covers, has also expanded its operations in Malaysia.

“We knew quite a number that have expressed their intention to shift from China and we have engaged them. The only thing is timing,” Azman Mahmud, then the CEO of the Malaysian Investment Development Authority, told The Malaysian Reserve in 2020.

Malaysia’s FDI inflows hit a five-year high of $48.1 billion in 2021, with manufacturing of electronics and vehicles being the main contributor, according to official government information.

No more Band-Aids: How to make the Colorado River sustainable for the long term

AZ Central – The Arizona Republic

No more Band-Aids: How to make the Colorado River sustainable for the long term

Margaret Garcia and Elizabeth Koebele – December 26, 2022

The Colorado River Basin is in the midst of a sustainability crisis.

Climate change and severe drought, coupled with historic overallocation of the river, have caused water users to rapidly drain the system’s major reservoirs to their lowest levels since construction.

Prior water management actions, such as urban water conservationinfrastructure efficiency investments, and water delivery reductions, have bought Colorado River water users time. But that time is now running out. Some water users are already experiencing dire effects of this crisis, while others prepare for cuts looming on the horizon.

Colorado River Basin policymakers stand at a critical juncture. They have an opportunity to avert more severe impacts of the crisis by implementing policy and management changes that go beyond the relatively incremental steps taken thus far.

How do we find long-term sustainability?

However, negotiating such major changes is extremely challenging, especially given the basin’s complex legal structure of water rights, its users’ diverse demands and uncertainty around how much water will be available in the future.

This raises the question: How can basin policymakers create transformational change that advances the long-term sustainability of the Colorado River amid this crisis?

What lurks in Lake Mead?Bodies and boats surface as water levels decline

Drawing on our experience studying water management transitions through the lenses of water resource engineering and collaborative policymaking, we offer three substantive and procedural suggestions that can help Colorado River Basin policymakers realize transformational change.

1. Move away from a fixed quantity of water
A buoy sits high and dry on cracked earth previously under the waters of Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area near Boulder City, Nev., on June 28, 2022. Living with less water in the U.S. Southwest is the focus for a conference starting Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2022, in Las Vegas, about the drought-stricken and overpromised Colorado River.
A buoy sits high and dry on cracked earth previously under the waters of Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area near Boulder City, Nev., on June 28, 2022. Living with less water in the U.S. Southwest is the focus for a conference starting Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2022, in Las Vegas, about the drought-stricken and overpromised Colorado River.

First, policymakers must stabilize the Colorado River system, meaning that water use does not exceed water availability. However, because streamflow is expected to continue to decline as temperatures rise, any stabilization solution must be adaptable to changes in water availability as they occur.

One way to achieve this is to change the indicators of system-wide water availability that trigger water management actions. Basin managers currently use slow-responding reservoir levels (which may also be muddled by complex water accounting) for this purpose. A more responsive indicator, such as a 5-year rolling average of inflow, could be used in the short term to minimize reliance on dwindling storage.

In the longer term, Basin managers could also consider an adaptive approach used in other areas of the West that converts fixed-quantity water rights to shares of the total quantity of available water, with the allocation of shares tailored to account for the existing water rights priority structure. The total quantity of available water could be adjusted to slowly refill reservoirs, serving to mitigate large water cuts in dry years. This additional step would help the system move beyond stabilization and into longer-term recovery.

2. Prioritize ideas to reduce uncertainty

Moving to the type of management regime described above will likely mean painful cuts for water users throughout the Colorado River Basin in the coming years. However, it could create more predictability and reliability in the long term – values that Basin managers have previously signaled agreement around.

Managing for a smaller known quantity of water is often easier than managing for the unknown. Achieving this, however, requires that all water users, including historically marginalized tribes and environmental groups, have an equitable seat at the negotiating table in order to reduce uncertainty about future water uses and needs.

3. Think beyond ‘how to share water cuts’

Finally, policymakers must expand their conception of “water sustainability” in the Colorado River Basin. For thriving communities and economies, water is a means, not an end. Beyond water use directly for human, public and ecological health, water enables food production and energy generation.

Broadening our thinking from “how to share water reductions” to “how to maintain regional food and energy security” opens new opportunities for negotiation and collaboration beyond the traditional “zero-sum” mentality.

These could include investing recently allocated federal funds for drought mitigation in improving agricultural water use efficiency, supporting the clean energy transition and conserving ecosystems to achieve more holistic sustainability goals, rather than temporarily buying more time through short-term conservation measures.

Transforming Colorado River Basin management to mitigate the current water crisis and realize long-term water sustainability requires changing not only policies but also the way we think about water use and needs.

The three suggestions presented above can help policymakers to meet this moment of historic challenge and historic opportunity by moving beyond incremental change and fostering a new era of solutions for the Colorado River.

Margaret Garcia, Ph.D, is an assistant professor in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment at Arizona State University. Elizabeth A. Koebele, Ph.D., is an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno, where she researches the use and implications of collaborative approaches to governing water resources.

How Americans Can Stand Against Extremism

By The Editorial Board – December 24, 2022

A hole in a window, with a rainbow banner in the background.
Credit…Justin Metz

This editorial is the sixth in a series, “The Danger Within,” urging readers to understand the danger of extremist violence and possible solutions. Read more about the series in a note from Kathleen Kingsbury, the Times Opinion editor.

Whoever shot the small steel ball through the front window of the Brewmaster’s Taproom in Renton, Wash., this month wasn’t taking chances. The person wore a mask and removed the front and rear license plates of a silver Chevrolet Cruze. The police still have no leads.

The bar’s owner, Marley Rall, thought the motivation seemed clear: The attack followed social media posts from conservatives angry about the bar’s Drag Queen Storytime and Bingo, slated for the following weekend.

The Taproom sits in a two-story office park a 15-minute drive from downtown Seattle. It has a little outside patio and about two dozen local craft beers on tap. Dogs are welcome. A sign on the door reads: “I don’t drink beer with racists. #blacklivesmatter.” Now there’s also a note with an arrow pointing to the hole in the window reading: “What intolerance looks like.”

Over the past two years, criticism of the bar’s long-running monthly Drag Queen Storytime had been limited to nasty voice mail messages and emails. But talk on right-wing message boards has turned much darker, Ms. Rall said. One post this month about the Taproom event read: “Drag Queen Storytime Protest. STOP Grooming Kids! Bring signs, bullhorns, noisemakers.”

Ms. Rall knew how protests like this could escalate. There was an incident in 2019 at a library drag queen story hour about 10 minutes from the bar, where members of the Proud Boys and other paramilitary groups got into a shouting match with supporters of the event.

Was the shot at the Taproom a warning? She had no way to know, so she kept the event on the calendar.

Sitting in a corner of the Taproom a few hours before her story time was set to begin, Sylvia O’Stayformore said she didn’t care if the Proud Boys showed up to an event that was aimed at teaching children empathy. Protesters or not, she had a show to put on. “I’d never be intimidated by all this,” she said.

Far-right activists have been waging a nationwide campaign of harassment against L.G.B.T.Q. people and events in which they participate. Drag queen story events are similar to other public readings for children, except that readers dress in a highly stylized and gender-fluid manner and often read books that focus on acceptance and tolerance. This month alone, drag queen events were the target of protests in Grand Prairie, TexasSan AntonioFall River, Mass.Columbus, OhioSouthern Pines, N.C.Jacksonville, Fla.Lakeland, Fla.ChicagoLong Island; and Staten Island.

On Monday, protesters vandalized the home of a gay New York City councilor with homophobic graffiti and attacked one of his neighbors in protest of drag queen story hours held at libraries.

The protests use the language of right-wing media, where demonizing gay and transgender people is profitable and popular. Tucker Carlson, a Fox News host who rails against transgender people and the medical facilities that serve them, has the highest-rated prime-time cable news program in the country. Twitter personalities with millions of followers flag drag events and spread anti-trans rhetoric that can result in in-person demonstrations or threats. Facebook pages of activist groups can mobilize demonstrators with ease.

Some Republican lawmakers are using the power of the state in service of the same cause. Several states are trying to restrict or ban public drag shows altogether, amid a record number of anti-L.G.B.T.Q. bills introduced this year. Republican politicians also used a barrage of lies about trans people in their campaign ads during the midterm elections, funded to the tune of at least $50 million, according to a report released in October from the Human Rights Campaign Foundation.

This campaign isn’t happening in a vacuum. Levels of political violence are on the rise across the country, and while some of it comes from the left, a majority comes from the right, where violent rhetoric that spurs actual violence is routine and escalating. At anti-L.G.B.T.Q. events, sign-waving protesters are increasingly joined by members of the street-fighting Proud Boys and other right-wing paramilitary groups. Their presence increases the risk of such encounters turning violent.

In a series of editorials, this board has argued for a concerted national effort against political violence. It would require cracking down on paramilitary groups, tracking extremists in law enforcement, creating a healthier culture around guns and urging the Republican Party to push fringe ideas to the fringes. Every American citizen has a part to play, and the most important thing we all can do is to demand that in every community, we treat our neighbors — and their civil liberties and human rights — with respect.

One way to do that is to call out and reject the dehumanizing language that has become so pervasive in online discussions, and in real life, about particular groups of people. Calling L.G.B.T.Q. people pedophiles is an old tactic, and it makes ignoring or excusing any violence that may come their way easier. While direct calls for violence are beyond the pale for most Republican politicians, and the causes of specific violent acts are not easily traced, calling transgender people pedophiles or “groomers” is increasingly common and usually goes unchallenged.

Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida, released a TV ad recently in which he said: “The radical left will destroy America if we don’t stop them. They indoctrinate children and try to turn boys into girls.” A conservative activist group recently ran ads in several states, including one that said, “Transgenderism is killing kids.” This year, as Florida lawmakers debated the so-called Don’t Say Gay bill, a spokeswoman for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida posted on Twitter: “If you’re against the Anti-Grooming Bill, you are probably a groomer or at least you don’t denounce the grooming of 4-8 year old children. Silence is complicity.”

The silence from a great majority of Republicans on the demonization of, and lies about, trans people has indeed meant complicity — complicity in what experts call stochastic terrorism, in which vicious rhetoric increases the likelihood of random violence against the people who are the subject of the abusive language and threats.


Drag queen story hours aren’t the only current target for right-wing extremists. On Aug. 30, an operator at Boston Children’s Hospital, a pioneer in providing gender-affirming care, answered the telephone at about 7:45 p.m. and received a disturbing threat. “There is a bomb on the way to the hospital,” the caller said. “You better evacuate everyone, you sickos.” It was the first of seven bomb threats the hospital received over several months. The most recent came on Dec. 14.

After extremists posted online the address of a physician who works with trans children at the hospital, the doctor had to flee the home. “These have been some of the hardest months of my life,” the doctor said.

Around the country, at least 24 hospitals or medical facilities in 21 states have been harassed or threatened in the wake of right-wing media attacks, according to a tally this month by the Human Rights Campaign Foundation. To protect their employees, some hospitals are stripping information about the transgender services they provide from their websites. The messages that appear to trigger these attacks are often outlandish lies about what care these medical facilities actually provide. As a result, many hospitals feel they have no choice but to protect their staff, even if it means making the care they provide less visible. Removal of official information creates a risk that more disinformation could fill the void.

Given the transnational nature of extremism, these threats can come from anywhere. The F.B.I. arrested three people in connection with the various threats against Boston doctors. One person lived in Massachusetts, another in Texas and the third in Canada.

Data collected by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which tracks political violence, puts the harassment of hospitals into a wider, troubling context. Acts of political violence against the entire L.G.B.T.Q. community have more than tripled since 2021; anti-L.G.B.T.Q. demonstrations have more than doubled in the same period. And the nature of the intimidation is changing: Protesters dressed as civilians have been replaced by men in body armor and fatigues; signs have been replaced by semiautomatic rifles.

Even dictionary publishers have become targets. This year, a California man was arrested for threatening to shoot up and bomb the offices of Merriam-Webster because he was angry about its definitions related to gender identity.

Congress approves new election rules in Jan. 6 response


Congress approves new election rules in Jan. 6 response

Nicholas Riccardi – December 23, 2022

In this image released in the final report by the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022, President Donald Trump talks on the phone to Vice President Mike Pence from the Oval Office of the White House on the morning of Jan. 6, 2021. Congress has passed changes to the arcane law that controls how it ratifies the winner of a presidential election. The legislation is an effort to close loopholes that Trump and his allies tried to exploit so he could remain president after losing the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden. (House Select Committee via AP)
In this image released in the final report by the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022, President Donald Trump talks on the phone to Vice President Mike Pence from the Oval Office of the White House on the morning of Jan. 6, 2021. Congress has passed changes to the arcane law that controls how it ratifies the winner of a presidential election. The legislation is an effort to close loopholes that Trump and his allies tried to exploit so he could remain president after losing the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden. (House Select Committee via AP)
FILE - Vice President Mike Pence hands the electoral certificate from the state of Arizona to Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., as he presides over a joint session of Congress as it convenes to count the Electoral College votes cast in November's election, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021. Congress on Friday, Dec. 23, gave final passage to legislation changing the arcane law that governs the certification of a presidential contest, the strongest effort yet to avoid a repeat of Donald Trump's violence-inflaming push to reverse his loss in the 2020 election. (Saul Loeb/Pool via AP, File)
 Vice President Mike Pence hands the electoral certificate from the state of Arizona to Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., as he presides over a joint session of Congress as it convenes to count the Electoral College votes cast in November’s election, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021. Congress on Friday, Dec. 23, gave final passage to legislation changing the arcane law that governs the certification of a presidential contest, the strongest effort yet to avoid a repeat of Donald Trump’s violence-inflaming push to reverse his loss in the 2020 election. (Saul Loeb/Pool via AP, File)

Congress on Friday gave final passage to legislation changing the arcane law that governs the certification of a presidential contest, the strongest effort yet to avoid a repeat of Donald Trump’s violence-inflaming push to reverse his loss in the 2020 election.

The House passed an overhaul of the Electoral Count Act as part of its massive, end-of-the-year spending bill, after the Senate approved identical wording Thursday. The legislation now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

Biden hailed the provisions’ inclusion in the spending bill in a statement Friday, calling it “critical bipartisan action that will help ensure that the will of the people is preserved.”

It’s the most significant legislative response Congress has made yet to Trump’s aggressive efforts to upend the 2020 election results, and a step that been urged by the House select committee that conducted the most thorough investigation into the violent siege of the Capitol.

The provisions amending the 1887 law — which has long been criticized as poorly and confusingly written — won bipartisan support and would make it harder for future presidential losers to prevent the ascension of their foes, as Trump tried to do on Jan. 6, 2021.

“It’s a monumental accomplishment, particularly in this partisan atmosphere, for such a major rewrite of a law that’s so crucial to our democracy,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California Los Angeles. “This law goes a long way toward shutting down the avenues Trump and his allies tried to use in 2020, and could have been exploited in future elections.”

On Jan. 6, Trump targeted Congress’ ratification of the Electoral College’s vote. He tried to exploit the vice president’s role in reading out the states’ electors to get Mike Pence to block Biden from becoming the next president by omitting some states Biden won from the roll. The new provisions make clear that the vice president’s responsibilities in the process are merely ceremonial and that the vice president has no say in determining who actually won the election.

The new legislation also raises the threshold required for members of Congress to object to certifying the electors. Before, only one member of the House and Senate respectively had to object to force a roll call vote on a state’s electors. That helped make objections to new presidents something of a routine partisan tactic — Democrats objected to certifying both of George W. Bush’s elections and Trump’s in 2016.

Those objections, however, were mainly symbolic and came after Democrats had conceded that the Republican candidates won the presidency. On Jan. 6, 2021, Republicans forced a vote on certifying Biden’s wins in Arizona and Pennsylvania even after the violent attack on the Capitol, as Trump continued to insist falsely that he won the election. That led some members of Congress to worry the process could be too easily manipulated.

Under the new rules, one-fifth of each chamber would be required to force a vote on states’ slates of electors.

The new provisions also ensure only one slate of electors makes it to Congress after Trump and his allies unsuccessfully tried to create alternative slates of electors in states Biden won. Each governor would now be required to sign off on electors, and Congress cannot consider slates submitted by different officials. The bill creates a legal process if any of those electors are challenged by a presidential candidate.

The legislation would also close a loophole that wasn’t used in 2020 but election experts feared could be, a provision that state legislatures can name electors in defiance of their state’s popular vote in the event of a “failed” election. That term has been understood to mean a contest that was disrupted or so in doubt that there’s no way to determine the actual winner, but it is not well-defined in the prior law.

Now a state could move the date of its presidential election — but only in the event of “extraordinary and catastrophic events,” like a natural disaster.

Hasen said that while the changes are significant, dangers still remain to democracy, noting that in Arizona, the Republican nominee for governor, Kari Lake, was waiting on a ruling Friday in a lawsuit she filed to overturn the victory of her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs.

“Nobody should think that passage of this legislation means we’re out of the woods,” Hasen said. “This is not one and done.”

GOP Sen. Mike Lee said that ‘Rudy is walking malpractice’ after Giuliani left him an accidental voicemail on January 6

Business Insider

GOP Sen. Mike Lee said that ‘Rudy is walking malpractice’ after Giuliani left him an accidental voicemail on January 6

Sonam Sheth – December 23, 2022

Rudy Giuliani
Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images
  • GOP Sen. Mike Lee described Rudy Giuliani as “walking malpractice” following the Capitol riot.
  • Lee texted then national security advisor Robert O’Brien after getting a voicemail from Giuliani that was intended for GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville.
  • In the message, Giuliani urged Tuberville and “our Republican friends” to delay Congress’ certification of Biden’s victory.

Republican Sen. Mike Lee described former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani as “walking malpractice” in a late-night text to then national security advisor Robert O’Brien.

That’s according to the January 6 select committee, which released its full 845-page report on the deadly Capitol siege late Thursday.

“You can’t make this up. I just got this voice message [from] Rudy Giuliani, who apparently thought he was calling Senator Tuberville,” Lee’s text said. “You’ve got to listen to that message. Rudy is walking malpractice.”

GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama was one of several lawmakers Giuliani tried to contact before Congress resumed its joint session to certify Joe Biden’s victory following the Capitol riot.

“I’m calling you because I want to discuss with you how they’re trying to rush this hearing and how we need you, our Republican friends, to try to just slow it down so we can get these legislatures to get more information to you,” Giuliani said in the voicemail intended for Tuberville.

Lee’s text to O’Brien was buried in an endnote in Chapter 7 of the report, titled “187 Minutes of Dereliction.” He texted O’Brien at 10:55 p.m. ET on January 6, per the endnote.

It’s one of dozens of times Giuliani is mentioned in the committee’s report, which paints a damning portrait of how the former New York mayor and his cohorts relied on dubious and conspiratorial theories to try to nullify Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election and install Trump for a second presidential term.

Bill Stepien, Trump’s 2020 campaign manager, told the committee that he was so uncomfortable with Giuliani’s post-election antics that he locked Giuliani out of his office and instructed his assistant not to allow the former mayor to enter.

“I told her, don’t let anyone in,” Stepien testified. “You know, I’ll be around when I need to be around. You know, tell me what I need to know. Tell me what’s going on here, but, you know, you’re going to see less of me. And, you know, sure enough, you know, Mayor Giuliani tried to, you know, get in my office and ordered her to unlock the door, and she didn’t do that, you know.”

“Mayor Rudy Giuliani exposed and took down the mafia not just here in America, but also in Italy,” Ted Goodman, a communication and political advisor to Giuliani, told Insider in a statement. “He rooted out corruption in government, prosecuted some of the largest insider trading cases on Wall Street, and cleaned up the streets of New York. Partisan politics aside, he is unquestionably one of the greatest prosecutors in American history.”

Some of the claims Giuliani and his allies made were so outlandish that even Trump found them hard to believe.

For instance, the committee’s report describes one phone call, on November 20, 2020, between Trump and the GOP-linked lawyer Sidney Powell, who worked closely with Giuliani on election litigation.

Powell spouted baseless allegations of widespread voter fraud during the call, including one claim that the voting tech company Dominion Voting Systems had colluded with the Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez — who died in 2013 — to tilt the election in Biden’s favor.

According to testimony from Trump’s top communications aide Hope Hicks, the president muted himself while Powell was detailing these allegations during their call. Hicks testified that Trump laughed at Powell and told others in the room, “This does sound crazy, doesn’t it?”

Giuliani is currently facing possible disbarment as a Washington, DC, ethics panel reviews his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

His “misconduct” after the election was “so serious that it should never be allowed to happen again,” disciplinary counsel Hamilton Fox said last week.

The DC Board of Professional Responsibility determined in a preliminary finding that Giuliani violated at least one ethics rule by filing a legal challenge in Pennsylvania seeking to throw out millions of votes in the state. The decision is not binding, and the hearing committee will consider alternative sanctions proposals before putting out a report with a final recommendation.

Giuliani vehemently defended himself throughout the proceedings, accusing the disciplinary counsel of engaging in a “personal attack” without presenting proper evidence. He also told Robert Bernius, the chairman of the panel overseeing the hearings, that Fox’s statements were an “outrage.”

Note: This story has been updated with a statement from Giuliani’s representative.

Sepsis is one of the most expensive medical conditions in the world – new research clarifies how it can lead to cell death

The Conservation

Sepsis is one of the most expensive medical conditions in the world – new research clarifies how it can lead to cell death

Alexander (Sasha) Poltorak, Professor of Immunology, Tufts University and Hayley Muendlein, Research Assistant Professor of Immunology, Tufts University – December 23, 2022

Bacteria (clusters of light pink, surrounded by larger magenta blood cells) can cause deadly infections, but overreactive immune responses can deliver the lethal blow. <a href=
Bacteria (clusters of light pink, surrounded by larger magenta blood cells) can cause deadly infections, but overreactive immune responses can deliver the lethal blow. Scharvik/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition arising from the body’s overreactive response against an infection, leading it to injure its own tissues and organs. The first known reference to “sepsis” dates back more than 2,700 years, when the Greek poet Homer used it as a derivative of the word “sepo,” meaning “I rot.”

Despite dramatic improvements in understanding the immunological mechanisms behind sepsis, it still remains a major medical concern, affecting 750,000 people in the U.S. and nearly 50 million people globally each year. Sepsis accounted for 11 million deaths worldwide in 2017, and is the most expensive medical condition in the U.S., costing over tens of billions of dollars annually.

We are researchers who study how certain types of bacteria interact with cells during infections. We wanted to understand exactly how an overreactive immune response can result in detrimental and even lethal effects like sepsis. In our newly published research, we discovered the cells and molecules that potentially trigger death from sepsis.

TNF in autoimmunity and sepsis

The body’s response to infection starts when immune cells recognize components of the invading pathogen. These cells then release molecules like cytokines that help eliminate the infection. Cytokines are a broad group of small proteins that recruit other immune cells to the site of infection or injury.

While cytokines play an essential role in the immune response, excessive and uncontrolled cytokine production can lead to a dangerous cytokine storm associated with sepsis. Cytokine storms were first seen in the context of graft versus host disease, arising from transplant complications. They can also occur during viral infections, including COVID-19. This uncontrolled immune response can lead to multi-organ failure and death.

Among the hundreds of cytokines that exist, tumor necrosis factor, or TNF, stands tall as the most potent and the most studied for nearly the past 50 years.

Tumor necrosis factor owes its name to its ability to induce tumor cells to die when the immune system is stimulated by a bacterial extract called Coley’s toxin, named after the researcher who identified it over a century ago. This toxin was later recognized to be lipopolysaccharide, or LPS, a component of the outer membrane of certain types of bacteria. LPS is the strongest known trigger of TNF, which, once on alert, aids in the recruitment of immune cells to the infection site to eliminate invading bacteria.

In normal conditions, TNF promotes beneficial processes such as cell survival and tissue regeneration. However, TNF production must be tightly regulated to avoid sustained inflammation and continuous proliferation of immune cells. Uncontrolled TNF production can lead to the development of rheumatoid arthritis and similar inflammatory conditions.

In infection conditions, TNF must also be tightly regulated to prevent excessive tissue and organ damage from inflammation and an overactive immune response. When TNF is left uncontrolled during infections, it can lead to sepsis. For several decades, studies of septic shock were modeled by investigating responses to bacterial LPS. In this model, LPS activates certain immune cells that trigger the production of inflammatory cytokines, in particular TNF. This then leads to excessive immune cell proliferation, recruitment and death, ultimately resulting in tissue and organ damage. Too strong of an immune response is not a good thing.

Researchers have shown that blocking TNF activity can effectively treat numerous autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease. Use of TNF blockers has dramatically increased in the past decades, reaching a market size of roughly $40 billion.

However, TNF blockers have been unsuccessful in preventing the cytokine storm that can arise from COVID-19 infections and sepsis. This is in part because exactly how TNF triggers its toxic effects on the body is still poorly understood despite years of research.

How TNF can be lethal

Studying sepsis might provide some clues as to how TNF mediates how the immune system responds to infection. In acute inflammatory conditions such as sepsis, TNF blockers are less able to address TNF overproduction. However, studies in mice show that neutralizing TNF can prevent the death of the animal from bacterial LPS. Although researchers do not yet understand the reason for this discrepancy, it highlights the need for further understanding how TNF contributes to sepsis.

Blood cells made in the bone marrow, or myeloid cells, are known to be the major producers of TNF. So we wondered if myeloid cells also mediate TNF-induced death.

TNF (blue) is implicated in a number of inflammatory diseases. <a href=
TNF (blue) is implicated in a number of inflammatory diseases. selvanegra/iStock via Getty Images Plus

First, we identified which particular molecules might offer protection from TNF-induced death. When we injected mice with a lethal dose of TNF, we found that mice lacking either TRIF or CD14, two proteins typically associated with immune responses to bacterial LPS but not TNF, had improved survival. This finding parallels our earlier work identifying these factors as regulators of a protein complex that controls cell death and inflammation in response to LPS.

Next, we wanted to figure out which cells are involved in TNF-induced death. When we injected a lethal dose of TNF in mice lacking the two proteins in two specific types of myeloid cells, neutrophils and macrophages, mice had reduced symptoms of sepsis and improved survival. This finding positions macrophages and neutrophils as major triggers for TNF-mediated death in mice.

Our results also suggest TRIF and CD14 as potential treatment targets for sepsis, with the ability to both reduce cell death and inflammation.

The Conservation is an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts.

‘Openly Gay’ Rep.-Elect George Santos Didn’t Disclose Divorce With Woman

Daily Beast

‘Openly Gay’ Rep.-Elect George Santos Didn’t Disclose Divorce With Woman

Roger Sollenberger – December 22, 2022

Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty
Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty

Republican congressman-elect George Santos is under new scrutiny after a New York Times report earlier this week uncovered a string of apparent outright fabrications at the heart of some of the most fundamental facts of his life, but that backstory may also be notable for what Santos did not include—a publicly undisclosed marriage.

Santos, who claims he has “never experienced discrimination in the Republican Party,” broke barriers this year when he became the first openly gay non-incumbent GOP candidate elected to Congress.

But according to court records obtained by The Daily Beast, Santos appears to be the subject of a previously unacknowledged Sept. 2019 divorce with a woman in Queens County, New York. The divorce—which Santos has not discussed publicly—adds new uncertainty to his already shaky biographical and political claims.

“I am openly gay, have never had an issue with my sexual identity in the past decade, and I can tell you and assure you, I will always be an advocate for LGBTQ folks,” Santos told USA Today in October, responding to criticism about his support for Florida’s so-called “Don’t Say Gay Bill” signed into law this year by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.

New York Congressman-Elect George Santos Reportedly Caught Lying, Again

Less than two weeks after his divorce was finalized, Santos filed the official paperwork to launch his 2020 campaign. And while his 2022 campaign bio mentions his husband, who according to Santos lives with him and their four dogs on Long Island, he’s kept this previous marriage out of the public eye entirely.

It’s entirely possible that Santos, who claims he has “never experienced discrimination in the Republican Party,” has been living comfortably as an openly gay man for, as he says, more than a decade. People get married for countless reasons. But Santos’ situation is curious because he never disclosed his divorce to voters, and never reconciled his prior marriage to a woman—which ended just 12 days before he established his first congressional campaign—with his claims of being an out and proud gay Republican.

Santos, 34, made his first bid for Congress in 2020, losing to Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) before toppling Democratic opponent Robert Zimmerman this year. But following a New York Times investigation that suggested Santos had fictionalized key elements of his resume, he’s already facing calls to resign, as well as a possible ethics investigation.

The colleges Santos says he attended don’t have a record of him; Citigroup and Goldman Sachs don’t either, though he claimed to work there; the IRS has no record of his nonprofit; he still faces “unresolved” legal trouble in Brazil; his past business ventures appear flimsy; and even his address was called into question.

In response to the Times report, Santos’ attorney Joseph Murray released a statement that, while stopping short of denying the accusations, painted his client as a victim, because he “represents the kind of progress that the Left is so threatened by—a gay, Latino, immigrant and Republican who won a Biden district in overwhelming fashion by showing everyday voters that there is a better option than the broken promises and failed policies of the Democratic Party.”

All the Holes in This Congressman-Elect’s Résumé

The Times story set off a rapid-fire round of criticism that extended not just to the congressman-elect, but to Democratic opposition researchers, Republican vetters, and media who had not called attention to the now-glaring holes in his story before the election.

While those details went largely unnoticed during the campaign, the Times investigation prompted reporters and internet sleuths around the country to dig deeper into Santos’ past—or what they could find of it.

It’s unclear why Santos has not disclosed his apparent marriage and divorce, but it doesn’t fit well with his current biography.

He has previously told U.S. and Brazilian media that he was engaged to a man, a fellow Brazilian whom Santos has identified as a pharmacist, and his campaign bio claims he lives on Long Island with his husband. (The Daily Beast could find no public record of the man’s work in that field, nor could we find a marriage record.)

But New York court records show that, in 2019, someone named George Devolder Santos, with a second initial of “A,” finalized an uncontested divorce with Uadla Santos Vieira Santos. Public records searches only reveal one person in the United States with that name.

Uadla Santos and George Santos did not reply to calls or questions sent via text message to numbers associated with them. (A deed for a $750,000 house purchase in Union County, New Jersey, this June lists Uadla Santos as the buyer, and says she is married; she is the only purchaser listed on the property documents.)

George Santos, whose middle name is Anthony, sometimes uses Devolder, his late mother’s maiden name. He incorporated it into his campaign—“Devolder Santos for Congress”—as well as his own supposed financial services company, the Devolder Organization.

Russian Oligarch’s Cousin Funneled Cash to N.Y. Politician

Santos has shifted between different combinations of those four names over the years, sometimes embracing his father’s Santos surname, other times going by his mother’s Devolder.

Santos’ mother died in 2016, according to an online crowdfunding campaign Santos launched to raise money to cover “the costs of the wake.” The GoFundMe page lists “Anthony D Santos” as the beneficiary—and Anthony Devolver of Sunnyside, New York, as the organizer—and the fundraising campaign remains open.

Santos’ campaign bio page claims his mother was “the first female executive at a major financial institution,” though the specific institution is unnamed. The bio also says “George’s mother was in her office in the South Tower” on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001.

“She survived the horrific events of that day, but unfortunately passed away a few years later”—about 15 years later.

And on Wednesday, Jewish outlet The Forward added still more intrigue, suggesting Santos may also have been untruthful when he claimed during the campaign—including on his website—to have Jewish ancestry. The report led incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to declare his future colleague a “complete and utter fraud.”

But the divorce revelation, and the apparent secrecy around it, complicates a central piece of the image Santos has burnished as a dynamic and culturally revolutionary figure.

In an election season where many of his fellow conservatives spouted nonsensical allegations of pedophilia among Democrats, targeted benign drag brunches as epicenters for “grooming,” and inflamed a hateful anti-gay and anti-trans movement—as attacks on the LGBTQ community skyrocketed—Santos made history as the first non-incumbent gay Republican to ever be elected to Congress.

But after achieving that victory, and just two weeks before his barrier-breaking inauguration, Santos’ relationship with the truth is facing tests he somehow dodged for two campaigns.

Russians escaping Putin’s war on Ukraine find a new home – and a moral dilemma

USA Today

Russians escaping Putin’s war on Ukraine find a new home – and a moral dilemma

Kim Hjelmgaard, USA TODAY – December 22, 2022

Tbilisi, the capital city of Georgia, where more Russians have sought a new haven since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Tbilisi, the capital city of Georgia, where more Russians have sought a new haven since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

“If our people are dying because of the Russian state, shouldn’t the Russian people also be ready to stand up (and resist) even if there is a danger to their lives? They are all to blame for what’s happening now.”  

— Valeriya Boyko, 25, displaced Ukrainian from the eastern Donetsk region

KVEDA PONA, Georgia – It’s a magical, rustic kingdom where an enchanted fairy-tale forest opens up to reveal waterfalls and mountain lakes; where a bubbling brook flows softly underneath dappled light as farm animals graze freely around your feet; where the vibe is creative-whimsical-cum-merry; where eco-warriors, artists and coders can learn new skills and debate the merits of democracy and solitude while baking artisanal bread.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-10-1/html/r-sf-flx.html

And where even rank-and-file Russian passport holders can temporarily feel free from the pressure of the government fighting in their name in Ukraine – as well as from all those who say they are not doing enough to stop it.

At least, that’s the sales pitch for Chateau Chapiteau.

“When people come here they feel it’s a place that is out of context, a bubble, it exists on its own, you can get lost,” said Vanya Mitin, the 38-year-old Moscow-born entrepreneur who founded the commune 90 miles northeast of Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, a small but tough former Soviet republic located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia.

Chateau Chapiteau opened three years ago. It caters to seekers, wanderers and political, social and cultural exiles of various stripes. Now, nearly a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this forest close to where Georgia meets the Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan has become another kind of haven, one for Russians who have fled their own country because they don’t agree with the war in Ukraine and don’t want to fight in it.

Working the fields at Chateau Chapiteau.
Working the fields at Chateau Chapiteau.

“It is not that we are ignoring the war,” insisted Mitin, whose serious demeanor belies a dryness and archness of humor in his approach to business that is often wacky. One of his previous ventures in Russia that also had a branch in England was a series of cafes that charged customers only for the amount of time they spent on the premises. Even when Mitin is smiling, there is a little bit of a shrug to it that colors his apparent happiness.

“Most of the people with Russian backgrounds here, they were activists, or still are. They went to protests. There is nobody here, for example, who supported Putin even before the war,” he said.

Since the earliest days of the invasion directed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainians made little secret of the moral weight they placed on the Russian people. If Putin’s war was wrong, then his people had an obligation to rebel, rise up, agitate, protest, despite the Russian promise of crackdown on dissent. And in Russian protests, some did.

But far more have cast their lots another way, by leaving Russia entirely, especially once the threat of civilian mobilization meant ordinary Russians were likely to be drafted into the war if they remained at home.

So they have left by the thousands, especially for neighboring countries where Russians still enjoy visa-free access.

Putin’s sway over the hearts and minds of Russians remains a pivotal question for the future of the war. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluded to it, during an appearance before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday. “The Russians will stand a chance to be free,” Zelenskyy said, “only when they defeat the Kremlin in their minds.”

Across Georgia today, untold thousands of Russians grapple in their own ways with the questions posed by the war. How much responsibility do they share for the decisions of Putin, for the suffering of Ukrainians? And what, if anything, should they do about it?

Expatriate Russians ask themselves these questions – or avoid asking them – in housewarming parties in Tbilisi, in cafes and bars, art shops and bookstore basements. And even in amid the pools and vines of a forest at the foot of the Caucasus Mountains.

The retreat at Kveda Pona sprawls over about 30 acres.

It sits on farmlands in a scenic plain that faces the barrier range of snow-capped peaks and picturesque villages. This mountain range runs from the Black Sea in the west to the Caspian Sea in the east, putting up a geologic fence line that makes uneasy neighbors of Georgia to the south and the Russian Federation to the north. The border stretches for about 550 miles.

There’s an orchard, a farm, a large studio building, smaller workshops, wooden cabins, a communal kitchen and entertainment room with a cozy fireplace, a bar in the woods, a collapsible ping-pong table and a makeshift swing over a stream made out of an old iron bed-frame. Some other parts of Chateau Chapiteau, such as traditional Georgian houses, are still under construction.

Wandering the grounds one day as autumn gathered last month, in no particular order, was a confusing mixture of employees, volunteers, paying guests, friends, hangers-on, ex-wives, ex-husbands, two small children rolling around in the mud, one teenage Georgian kitchen worker from the nearby village, two recently arrived Germans, a Russian-speaking American from Colorado who said she had just got here from Turkey where she saw scores of exiled Russians “behaving like they were on a beach vacation,” several boisterous dogs, three cats and at least two chickens, one of whom is called “City.” It was exceptionally hard to get a sense of how many people really lived there. At least 20. Perhaps as many as 50.

Around midday, there was a brief commotion as an all-hands buffet-style lunch of buckwheat (vegetarian and vegan options), chopped beet root, soup, bread and various salads was served in a main building on the estate. Halfway through the meal, Mitin abruptly stood up and walked over to an electric piano and started accompanying one of the instrument’s preprogrammed songs. It sounded like an upbeat video game tune. When he tired of that, he briefly left the room and came back with a guitar, which he started quietly fingerpicking and eventually graduated to some light strumming. He said nothing.

Daniil Mulyard, Mitin’s half-brother, leaned in semi-conspiratorially from across the table.

“You know,” he said, “even when the war first started, the protests in Russia were not very big. A couple of thousand people in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other big cities. People were afraid. And actually I think that most of the people who went to those protests have now left Russia.”

Mulyard, 28, is in a pretty good position to know.

At Chateau Chapiteau, he cares for the organic cucumbers and other produce grown on site. But he also works for OVD-Info, a Moscow-based independent human rights group that focuses on political persecution in Russia. OVD-Info tracks arrests of protesters, monitors censorship and helps with legal aid. According to OVD-Info data, about 20,000 protesters have been detained in Russia for various periods of time since Feb. 24, the start of the war.

“In my experience, it’s usually the same circles of people” who go to the protests, Mulyard said. “It’s seldom people from different circles. There’s really nobody left to protest.”

More: Plotting the locations of ‘one of the biggest rocket attacks’ Russia has unleashed on Ukraine

Anti-Russian graffiti scrawled on a wall in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.
Anti-Russian graffiti scrawled on a wall in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.

“They escape to Georgia and the European Union and pretend to be Ukrainians there. … We expect Russians to persuade their own men – their fathers and sons in the military – to leave the territory of Ukraine.”

— Anastasiya Orlova, 28, a Ukrainian who works for a Kyiv-based humanitarian organization

A ‘new language’: What is a Russian’s responsibility?

Every Sunday, a 23-year-old Muscovite with tousled hair, a broad, flat forehead and advanced skills in logical deduction named Arseny Velikanov sits at the head of a plastic garden dining table, in the basement of a bookstore, in a country Russia has fought several wars with, and tries to conjure what he calls a “new language.”

This language is full of contradictions, history, abstract concepts, moral quandaries, emotional pitfalls, anger, tension. It is riddled with guilt, shame, fear, confusion. Its would-be speakers – including himself –  are a little spoiled, Velikanov believes. Cowards, others say.

“I was about a year old when Putin became Russia’s president,” Velikanov said one evening in mid-November in Tbilisi, a chaotic, ancient city that is increasingly filled with Russians wearing denim, patterned shirts, vintage dresses, structured coats and beanie hats.

Tbilsi is a former Silk Road capital, a bohemian place where speakeasy culture unfussily sits alongside vintage flea markets and towering Orthodox churches. It is also a haven for food and wine lovers. Archaeologists have pinpointed the world’s earliest known vintners, circa 6,000 B.C., to Georgia. Wine is the nation’s second-largest export after ferroalloys.

There are no precise totals for how many Russians have left the country since February. But estimates based on media reports and figures released from neighboring countries where Russians enjoy visa-free access, such as Georgia and Kazakhstan, indicate it runs into the hundreds of thousands, perhaps even as high as 700,000.

This exodus is the smaller one in the wider region: The United Nations estimates 7.8 million Ukrainian refugees have been forced to flee their homes and seek safety, protection and humanitarian assistance as Russia’s military has destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure and appeared to deliberately target civilians. Humanitarian organizations have warned a new wave of Ukrainian refugees may be coming this winter as Russian missile attacks deprive millions of access to electricity, heat and water.

Velikanov had just finished one of his weekly talks at the bookstore for about a dozen people, all of them Russian. Upstairs, the bookshelves were filled with Russian-language graphic novels, thrillers and reference titles. In one corner of the store, a few kids played board games as their Russian parents exchanged news, gossip and worry with friends about home. A small bar serving coffee, beer and sandwiches was tended by a tattooed Russian who volunteered that back in Moscow, before the war, he used to work in a sex shop.

“I am always asking myself: Have I done enough? How much am I to blame? This is what we are trying to understand in our discussions. This is the ‘language’ we are trying to construct,” said Velikanov, a philosophy major in college. He fled to Georgia from Russia’s largest city in March to avoid being forced to fight in Ukraine.

It’s a question even experts struggle to answer.

“What is the ethical framework around citizen responsibility in wartime?” said David DeCrosse, a professor of ethics at Santa Clara University. “You may get drafted. But should you go if you don’t believe in the war? Maybe citizens in wartime have no other responsibility other than to do what the state asks them to do? Maybe there is an obligation to be part of the opposition to a profoundly unjust war?”

Yet political dissent in Russia – which had never been a safe pursuit – has been all but obliterated.

Anti-war protests are punishable by up to 15 years in prison. Any Russian who dares speak out publicly against the war in Ukraine faces an uncertain future.

Yevgenia Albats at a court hearing in Moscow in 2018. A longtime critic of President Vladimir Putin, she has since left Russia.
Yevgenia Albats at a court hearing in Moscow in 2018. A longtime critic of President Vladimir Putin, she has since left Russia.

“My lawyers told me that I would be arrested,” Yevgenia Albats, a longtime Putin critic who fled the country in August by crossing into Estonia on foot, said recently in an interview with Puck, a newsletter. “Basically, we now live in a country where there are no longer any rules.”

Still, there are some Russians who believe it is not their responsibility to be held accountable for actions taken by their government, even if their government is murdering civilians.

Dmitry Diachenko, 24, is one of them.

He used to work in a manufacturing plant in St. Petersburg before arriving in Tbilisi in March. Diachenko left Russia because he saw it becoming an international outcast and felt it would be easer to pursue his ambition to work in the technology industry if he were overseas. He’s saving money to travel to Thailand and is leaning toward trying to emigrate to Canada, a country he has never visited but suspects may have a similar climate to Russia’s.

“I want to be clear: I don’t support Putin’s war. But I also don’t feel any particular reason to try to stop it,” he said. “I don’t have any allegiance to anyone or anything apart from myself.”

Diachenko said that since coming to Georgia, his main preoccupation has been learning to play the piano. He showed off some clips of his playing posted on his Instagram account, a social media platform that Russia’s communications regulator has banned for its “extremism.” He is now teaching himself the songs of British music artist Elton John.

Yet others, such as Velikanov, have been reappraising their obligations as Russian citizens.

“In Moscow, people like me, we had a comfortable, normal life. When we heard the propaganda from the government we smiled at it like someone who smiles at a fool,” he said. “OK, maybe we knew that something terrible was happening in Crimea, in Donbas, or in Abkhazia, but we thought ‘Well, that is of course not at all about us.'”

Velikanov’s group had recently been spending time reading and talking about seminal texts written by Karl Jaspers, Hannah Arendt and other notable postwar philosophers and political theorists who examined the personal and shared responsibility of average citizens in the context of the atrocities carried out by Germans in World War II.

“Can I blame Ukrainians for hating us all right now?” Velikanov asked. “Of course not. They have that total right,” he said. “Do I feel moral guilt? Yes. Did I break any laws or do a criminal thing by leaving Russia? No. Do I experience political guilt for letting this happen and not doing more? Yes. But this type of guilt is also not a crime.”

Velikanov paused. He fidgeted in his chair. He was uncertain how to proceed. He has spoken to few Ukrainians about these questions. It’s a delicate topic.

“I guess what I can say is that Ukrainians have a right to not care about anything I say or do and what am I supposed to do in that situation? I guess I can only offer my silence,” he said.

More: War crimes in Ukraine may be unprecedented. So is the country’s push for swift justice

Georgian troops fire rockets at seperatist South Ossetian troops in August 2008.
Georgian troops fire rockets at seperatist South Ossetian troops in August 2008.

“If (Ukraine) loses this war, the next one will be in Georgia. I’m absolutely sure. … Even now Georgia isn’t secure and is not in a safe position.” 

— David Katsarava, 45, a Georgian volunteer fighting in Ukraine 

A complicated friendship for Georgians, Russians

“Russians, some Belarusians, but mostly Russians,” said Igor Kyznetsov.

The 36-year-old Russian proprietor of Freedom Aroma, a Tbilisi bar and cafe, was explaining who on any given day makes up the majority of his customers. His Russian and Belarusian employees alternated between listening in and steaming milk with an espresso machine.

Kyznetsov opened his bar in August, one month before Putin announced a massive troop mobilization after Russia suffered a series of major setbacks on Ukrainian battlefields.

Business has been “very good,” he said.

Some Russians may prefer to soak up sun on Spanish beaches, party in French nightclubs and selfie from Italian piazzas and ski hubs. As the war has dragged on, that has become harder for them as European countries have restricted access to their territories.

In Georgia, Russians can live and work for up to a year without a visa.

This, along with geographical proximity, partly explains why an estimated 300,000 Russians – nearly 10% of Georgia’s 3.7 million population – have decamped to the country in recent years.

The influx since the start of the Ukraine war has simply supplemented a Russian presence that was already easy to discern.

There are dozens of bars, cafes and restaurants in Tbilisi where Russian is the only language that can be heard spoken above the clang of silverware. Nightclubs where the young, fashion-forward ravers overwhelmingly hail from Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Over several visits in mid-November, Russians (and a few Belarusians) exclusively inhabited the bookstore where Velikanov held his weekly talks for Russians on devising a “new language” to talk about Ukraine. The bookstore is sandwiched between two cafes, both Russian-run. The patrons of both cafes overwhelmingly come from one place: Russia.

Georgians complain the influx has aggravated a growing housing shortage, supercharged an increase in rents, jammed up commuter traffic routes and generally led to a wave of Russian money that is helpful for short-terms economic gains and unhelpful as it increases Georgia’s economic dependence on Russia.

Some Georgians, such as Nicholas Shevardnadze, 30, a bar owner, don’t trust them.

“All these Russians are walking around Tbilsi talking about how they were so stressed in Russia, how they were stuck, that they are ‘refugees.’ For me, their emotions are fake. I understand they are scared. But c’mon man, it’s your country!” he said of their decision to flee Russia rather than find ways, from inside, to undermine its authoritarian regime.

Shevardnadze’s bar – House of Camora – is located at Fabrika, a Tbilisi cultural center that is a symbol of the shiny, new Georgia. Fabrika is an old Soviet sewing factory that has been given an industrial-design makeover. It has co-working spaces, a vinyl record shop, yoga studios, resident graffiti artists and multiple paces to grab a fancy burger or ramen noodles.

“The ship is going down and all the rats are running away,” he said of the Russian exodus.

Shevardnadze’s views reflect an animosity that runs deeper than just the current wave of Russians, in a country still struggling to untangle itself from the shadow of its former Soviet master.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, both Russia and Georgia were newly independent nations. But in the years that followed, Russia-backed separatists in Georgia sought to declare independence for two regions, which led to a war in 2008.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Tskhinvali, in the Georgian breakaway province of South Ossetia, on Aug. 16, 2008.
A woman walks past a destroyed building in Tskhinvali, in the Georgian breakaway province of South Ossetia, on Aug. 16, 2008.

The war ended in days, with Russian troops occupying the regions. Today, Abkhazia and South Ossetia (or the Tskhinvali region, as Georgians prefer to call it) remain under Russian control.

The conflict essentially meant Russia had invaded the bordering portions of an independent country.

It announced Moscow’s determination, Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland has noted, “to force a country (it) regarded as within Russia’s sphere of influence to heel.”

Many international affairs specialists in the West such as Fried regard Russia’s 2008 actions in Georgia as a kind of prelude to Ukraine. In 2014, Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region on the Black Sea and backed separatists in Donbas, a vast eastern industrial heartlands area dotted with factories and coal plants.

In Georgia, as in Ukraine, while Russia seized its bordering regions, the rest of the country took steps to unite with the West.

It applied to be a member of the European Union economic bloc in March. Like Ukraine, it has aspirations to join NATO, the military alliance that backs Western allies against Russian aggression. (NATO’s expansion to include former Soviet republics such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as former Soviet satellite states in Central and Eastern Europe such as Poland, Hungary and Romania, is sometimes cited as one of the reasons Putin decided this year to extend the war he started in Ukraine in 2014 to an all-out invasion.)

Many Georgians worry Russia could eventually try to take more territory, as it did in Ukraine.

Yet when it comes to Russia today, Georgia remains far from stand-offish.

Paata Zakareishvili, a former Georgian government minister, now an academic. He is concerned about Russia's influence in Georgia.
Paata Zakareishvili, a former Georgian government minister, now an academic. He is concerned about Russia’s influence in Georgia.

Paata Zakareishvili, a former Georgian government minister for reconciliation and civic equality from 2012-2016 who now teaches political science at Grigol Robakidze University, in Tbilisi, said that for all of Georgia’s overtures to the West, the country’s current government led by President Salome Zourabichvili and Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili’s ruling Georgian Dream party has maintained good relations with Russia.

Georgia has kept its borders entirely open to Russian nationals.

And over the last 10 months, its economy has become more, not less, tethered to Russia’s. The country has increased its imports of Russian oil and energy products. The Georgia branch of Transparency International, a Berlin-based organization that measures global corruption, has raised concern that many of the 17,000 Russian companies registered in Georgia since the start of the war – a tenfold increase compared to year-earlier totals – could be helping Moscow evade the sanctions imposed on it by the U.S. and European countries.

Georgia has facilitated Kremlin-friendly information campaigns not so much by talking up Russia, but by talking down the “lewd” West, said Zakareishvili. “Their main slogan can be summed up: ‘Yes, Russia is bad, but what’s good about the West? How did it ever help us?'”

Rati Khazalia, a business owner in Tblisi, says he remembers Russians bombing his village when he was a child.
Rati Khazalia, a business owner in Tblisi, says he remembers Russians bombing his village when he was a child.

Despite the presence of Ukrainian flags and anti-Russian graffiti across Tbilisi and other cities, many of Georgia’s leading politicians have adopted a carefully calibrated ambivalence toward Putin. No Georgian soldiers or weapons have been sent to Ukraine by the government. (Thousands of Georgian volunteers have been fighting in Ukraine. They make up one of the highest numbers in the international legions.) At least one former spy for Russia’s security services has come forward to claim that he was sent to Georgia to keep tabs on the expanding number of Russian emigres.

“Our government right now doesn’t have policies about anything,” said Rati Khazalia, 27, a Georgian business owner who founded and runs “Jpg,” an artsy print shop, located across the courtyard from Shevardnadze’s “Camaro” bar at Fabrika. “We don’t know in which direction the country is going. Is it to the West? Or is to the East?”

Khazalia said he has sympathy for some Russians in Georgia, though he worries about the impact on the cost of living. He fears a cohort that has shown itself resistant to learning the local language and chosen to socialize almost exclusively among its own kind will not, ultimately, be good for community relations. It also bothers him that the Russians he meets often view themselves as distinct from the regime they are fleeing. They appear to have little regard, he said, for how Georgians might feel threatened by a group of people who many like him have long seen as “imperialists,” and with whom they share a fraught history.

“Most of the Russians I encounter are against everything that is happening in Ukraine. I can see that,” he said. “They feel some responsibility for things that are taking place. I see they want it to change. But I also see them trying to separate themselves from the war because they think of themselves as liberals, more into art and music.”

Khazalia said he still vividly recalls the moment in 2008 when Russian jets bombed his village, destroying homes and causing a massive fire in the nearby woodlands.

Today, Russia’s tanks can be in Tbilisi in less than an hour.

More: What is NATO? History, facts, members and why it was created

The forest at Chateau Chapiteau, in Kveda Pona, Georgia.
The forest at Chateau Chapiteau, in Kveda Pona, Georgia.

“At first I thought, ‘Well, I don’t know what it’s like to live in a dictatorship. But now I have lost any hope of trying to understand what Russians are afraid of. … Let them try to understand us first.” 

—  Liliya, 27, a Ukrainian who works for an international development organization in Lviv, in western Ukraine

Rejected in Russia; rejected in Georgia

Sergeyand Polinadon’t think of themselves as cowards.

They do think they are being squeezed from all sides.

The pair, who are in a romantic relationship, said they went to protest after protest in Moscow. They were on the streets after the war first broke out.

Over a dinner they prepared in their temporary rental apartment on the edge of Tbilisi, they described a scene then, and in previous protests they participated in, in which endless columns of riot police in full military tactical gear descended on them like a “closing vice.”

Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide. Placards confiscated. Shouted phrases drowned out.

Lebedev fled to Georgia in May. Butko followed in September.

They have good jobs in digital marketing that allow them to work remotely. They are disgusted by the war and feel deep embarrassment over what they perceive as their inability to do anything practical to help stop it. Yet they don’t feel that they should have to stay in a country where openly communicating their beliefs leads to prison or beatings, likely both.

“I don’t know what Ukrainians want from us,” said Butko, 23. “If their expectation is that unless the prisons in Russia are full of protesters then we are not doing enough, I don’t think that’s fair. But I understand their anger. And I understand the only way for them to maybe survive this anger is to direct it at the thing – Russians – that has caused it.”

For Lebedev, 24, there was another reason to flee.

He previously served in Russia’s military as a reservist. He said he knew Russia’s military “culture” – the poor training, inconsistent discipline, the blatant disregard for civilians, the effective inducements to loot because of low pay and terrible conditions. All of this has been shockingly evident in Ukraine as war crimes allegations mount.

Lebedev wanted no part of it.

But leaving has also been hard.

There are minor indignities to suffer, from pointed remarks from strangers aimed at Russians in the supermarket or on graffiti scrawled on walls in Tbilisi.

And there are indignities left behind. His uncle, a military man, calls him a coward for leaving Russia. Lebedev’s father also thinks this of his son, but is more guarded in how he phrases it. Only his mother supports his decision.

“My mother has told me not to talk to my father,” he said, a comment that drew a supportive glance and touch of the arm from Butko. She said they talk constantly about what they should do, where they should go, what kind of reception, as Russians, they might expect.

Still, while there are no easy answers, there are some moral expectations, according to

Jeff McMahan, an American philosopher who teaches at Oxford University and has spent years thinking about the responsibilities of citizens in times of war.

He said every Russian, to a greater or lesser extent, has some duty to oppose an unjust war like the one in Ukraine, which was unprovoked. He said Russian civilians who are important to the functioning of the state, who are involved in the major social, economic and political institutions of the country, have the greatest responsibility to make clear their opposition to the war because they have more influence over Putin and other people in the Kremlin.

But he said that Russians like Lebedev and Butko are also “morally liable to suffer certain harms that might be imposed on them in external efforts to bring the war to an end.”

These “harms” could be in the form of sanctions intended to produce discontent in society, as a means of putting pressure on Putin, that ultimately impact their living standards, ability to work, travel freely and leave them feeling ostracized – from Ukrainians or anyone else.

“These sanctions don’t hurt Russian civilians in anything like the ways in which Russia is harming and hurting civilians in Ukraine,” said McMahan. “These are proportionate harms. These people are not entirely innocent because they have some responsibility to try to prevent their government from doing what their government is doing.”

Yet when Albats, the Putin critic who fled Russia by crossing into Estonia this past summer, looks around at her compatriots she sees little reason to be optimistic.

Albats is 64 and now based in the U.S.

In her interview with Puck, she described Russia’s younger generations as “completely spoiled.” She said they lacked “experience of the Soviet struggle” and that after the last major pro-democracy protests in Russia in 2011-2012, the biggest of the Putin era, they had been placated, Muscovites especially, “with the best restaurants and bike lanes and sidewalks and new theaters and overhauled, modernized museums and libraries, and here’s work and you can do whatever you want. You shouldn’t criticize Putin, of course, but anything else, go for it.” Albats said in email that there are now virtually no avenues for Russians to pursue meaningful dissent inside the country, and any Russians who protest once they leave, and there haven’t been many, do so only for “self-satisfaction.”

“People in Iran are braving bullets to protest for women’s rights. People in China are on the streets calling for freedom. The only recent protests I have seen in Russia is by people who complain they haven’t been given sufficiently good weapons and equipment to go kill Ukrainians,” Yaroslav Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born journalist for The Wall Street Journal, tweeted recently, summing up the feelings of many Ukrainians toward Russians.

A recent leaked poll conducted by the Kremlin found that Russia support for the war that has devastated the nation’s economy and military is falling, according to the Latvia-based investigations outlet Meduza, which obtained the information.

But it still remains high.

Still, David Cortright, a retired peace studies professor and former soldier who ended up protesting the Vietnam War while on active duty, said that the idea that Russians should be doing more than they are to overturn Putin’s government is a “false expectation.”

He said that “even if Russians are not going to go out and protest – if Russians are leaving the country and refusing to fight – it means morale in the country is low. It means public opinion in Russia is shifting. It means (Ukraine is) winning.”

Chateau Chapiteau founder Vanya Mitin stands amid an art installation on the grounds of the commune a few hours northeast of Tbilisi, Georgia.
Chateau Chapiteau founder Vanya Mitin stands amid an art installation on the grounds of the commune a few hours northeast of Tbilisi, Georgia.

Back in the sun-dappled forest of Chateau Chapiteau, where an amorphous group of Russian expats hopes to build a sort of agrarian utopia, entrepreneur Mitin gave a tour of an art installation that he had set up in the woods.

It’s called the “forest of hands.” It features 24 sculpted, raised hands – the number marking the war’s start on the 24th day of February – placed in a circle in the ground. The title is a reference to a famous saying of educators in Soviet times.

“It is the dream of a totalitarian teacher to see people obey, blindly obey,” Mitin said, adding that Soviet teachers would often use the phrase “I see a forest of hands” to cajole students into raising their hands to questions they may not be able to answer. They sought full participation even if it was without understanding. He said the installation was intended to show Russians are tacitly approving atrocities committed by the authorities.

“I can’t imagine how to be useful in Russia if you’re not ready to sacrifice your life or go to prison,” he said. Mitin pointed out that Chateau Chapiteau has raised money for displaced Ukrainians and funded a Ukrainian family’s ongoing stay at the retreat. He also noted that nationals of many different countries come to the commune, not just Russians.

Mitin said he had recently acquired Israeli citizenship and wants to sever all ties to the country where he was born and raised. “Maybe sometimes to kill an evil you should just leave it alone. Let it destroy itself from within. … Maybe it’s better to leave this hooligan (Putin) alone … maybe everyone should just leave (Russia).”

Mulyard, his half-brother, though, has the opposite idea.

He has been out of Russia since March. Over the objections of Mitin, his girlfriend and many of the other Russians ensconced at Chateau Chapiteau, Mulyard said he’s considering returning home so he can be more directly useful.

“I don’t really agree with those people, with a lot of the Russians who have left, that just by being there you will immediately go to prison and die,” he said. “That doesn’t really happen unless you are involved in activism. Quite often my impression is Russians don’t feel guilty about this war. They leave because they have a strong feeling of self-preservation and maybe they are panicking about the situation more than they should.”

Contributing: Masho Lomashvili, Iryna Dobrohorska

Arizona’s water crisis is manageable – if we actually do these 3 things

AZ Central – The Arizona Republic

Arizona’s water crisis is manageable – if we actually do these 3 things

Grady Gammage, Jr. – December 22, 2022

Those of us who talk about Arizona’s water situation often point out that the challenge we face is less daunting than other dilemmas of climate change like sea level rise or an increasing frequency of hurricanes. A dramatic decline in water resources, we say, is manageable, and Arizona has a strong history of water management.

But there’s a catch: We have to actually manage it.

There are a lot of seemingly disconnected ideas floating around. It is important to fit these ideas into a context, and to give Arizonans a way to talk about how we will manage our way through.

Here are some thoughts on such a framework.

Conservation is a small yet critical need

We cannot conserve our way out of the looming shortages. Reducing turf, limiting lot sizes and increasing use of effluent are all good and important things. The reality is we could shut off all municipal use and not solve the problem.

Conservation is an important piece of reminding everyone how critical water is, and of making a statement that we are serious and we are all in this together. Conservation would involve some mandates (like prohibiting winter overseeding); incentives (paying to remove turf) and a lot of education.

As the Colorado River shrinks:Arizona looks at water recycling, desalination

The best way to achieve conservation is to create targets for municipal reductions in per-capita consumption. The best way of reaching those targets is to carefully raise water prices on amounts beyond a minimum quantity per household.

This represents action we can take immediately.

Shift water from agriculture to urban use
Arizona must incentivize farmers to increase efficiency and be more flexible in crop choices.
Arizona must incentivize farmers to increase efficiency and be more flexible in crop choices.

The biggest water use in Arizona by far is irrigated agriculture. Encouraging farming was the goal of public policy to settle the West. That worked, but today the policy should be to first preserve western economies and urban growth.

Agriculture does not need to disappear. But it needs to dramatically curtail use when there is not enough water to go around.

We must compensate farmers for such changes, and incentivize them to increase efficiency and be more flexible in crop choices. Farmers in Yuma have offered such a proposal, which can become the basis for negotiation. This should be the primary use of state dollars through the newly enhanced Water Infrastructure Financing Authority (WIFA). The Legislature put a billion dollars into WIFA in 2022. A good start, but there needs to be an ongoing revenue stream for these purposes.

Just as an example, a $500 surcharge per acre foot of municipal water use in Maricopa County would raise about half a billion dollars every year. That amounts to $.0015 per gallon. Carefully shifting water from farming to urban use can get us through the next 30-40 years.

Invest in new, long-term water sources

It is important to start working now on solutions in the distant horizon. This likely means ocean desalinization, but there may be other alternatives. What is important is that a plan for 50-plus years into the future begins to unfold.

The price tag will be high. The recent Build Back Better bill has about $4 billion earmarked for Western water projects. This is great, and we should thank our congressional delegation.

Federal participation in dealing with the cost of natural disasters is a bedrock purpose of the national government. It is a way of spreading the risk of hurricanes, floods and fires over a larger revenue base. It is also a way of protecting interstate commerce. New York City alone got $4 billion in federal money after “Superstorm” Sandy.

The federal government has averaged more than $30 billion per year in hurricane relief since 2000. Drought and aridification in the West are the same sort of challenge.

The Colorado River basin states should band together to make this point in Washington. Federal reclamation policy settled the West. That policy is now needed to sustain what reclamation built.

Confronting the challenge of a drying climate at different scales and in different time frames will help Arizona reassert its storied history of leadership in water management.

Grady Gammage, Jr. is a practicing lawyer and author.