This state is requiring every new home to be built with money-saving, energy-efficient heat pumps: ‘The right choice’
Jill Ettinger – October 9, 2023
Starting this summer, every new house or apartment built in the state of Washington will be required to use money-saving, energy-efficient heat pumps for heating and cooling.
The decision came last November when the Washington State Building Code Council voted in favor of the mandate, making it one of the strongest building codes in the country for energy-efficient heat pumps.
Electric heat pumps are two to four times more energy efficient than gas heaters, which means they can help you cut down your electricity bill dramatically.
Another reason they’re being lauded is because they don’t run on methane, a potent gas that traps heat in our atmosphere and causes our planet to overheat. Methane is also linked to a number of human health issues, including respiratory illness, memory loss, and heart disease.
The Council voted for the heat pumps following a 2021 state law that requires 45% in greenhouse gas pollution reductions by 2030 and 95% by 2050, compared with 1990 levels. The state is also required to increase energy efficiency in buildings by 70% by 2031.
“The State Building Code Council made the right choice for Washingtonians,” Rachel Koller, managing director of the green-building alliance Shift Zero, said in a statement. “From an economic, equity and sustainability perspective, it makes sense to build efficient, electric homes right from the start.”
An influx of transplants to Washington in recent years has led to a 50% increase in planet-overheating gas pollution from buildings between 1990 and 2015 — the fastest-growing source in the state.
Across the country, lawmakers are making decisions like this to help move their municipalities away from dirty-energy-based heating systems. More than 90 cities and counties in the U.S. now have similar measures in place.
“It’s an exciting step forward toward meeting our goal to reduce greenhouse gases in our state,” Katy Sheehan, a council member who voted in favor of the heat pump mandate told Spokane’s Spokesman-Review. “I’m really happy that we did it.”
These ‘self-sustaining’ luxury homes take just 6 weeks to construct — and buying one could literally earn you money
Laurelle Stelle – October 9, 2023
A construction company called S2A Modular is providing a range of luxury prefabricated homes in as little as six weeks — and each is designed to produce its own free electricity.
For most homeowners, the power bill is a major monthly expense. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average U.S. residence used 10,632 kilowatt hours in 2021. More than half of that energy went to heating and cooling, with the rest going to lights, appliances, and electronics.
But S2A Modular co-founders John Rowland and Brian Kuzdas envision a world where you don’t pay power companies for electricity — they pay you.
Enter #GreenLuxHome: S2A Modular’s electrically self-sustaining houses. The homes are designed to reach “Net-Zero,” meaning that they supply at least as much energy to the local power grid as they draw from it.
“With your home connected to the grid as a backup power source, soon enough, you won’t only eliminate energy bills,” says the company’s website, “utility companies may eventually write you checks for your home having contributed energy.”
The site goes on to say that the homes use Tesla Powerwall batteries and FreeVolt PV Graf solar panels to provide enough power not just to supply the needs of the household, but to charge electric cars as well.
This approach is an obvious money-saver for homeowners, but it’s also great for the environment. Solar power doesn’t produce heat-trapping gases, unlike electricity generated from burning coal or gas, so it contributes much less to rising global temperatures.
Meanwhile, S2A Modular’s homes are designed for quality and value. The company offers a selection of 35 gorgeous floor plans and the option to design your own, all using high-quality materials and built-in smart features.
Once you choose the design that suits you, S2A Modular says the house will be completely ready for move-in in six weeks.
As the company says, “You save time. You save money. You save energy. And your home has immediately higher long-term value than a traditional ‘site-built’ home.”
Shell leaves experts fuming with latest admission on 2050 pledge: ‘They are making so much money right now’
Erin Feiger – October 9, 2023
Shell has backpedaled on its climate change pledges to provide bigger payouts to shareholders, in a move slammed by many as shady.
What’s happening?
After a surprising announcement last year, in which Shell set 2050 as its target to reach net-zero planet-overheating gas pollution, the company became the latest to join others like BP in scaling back their climate pledges, according to Euronews.green.
Shell said oil production levels will remain stable until 2030, justifying it by saying selling its interest in the Permian Basin oilfield in 2021 allowed it to reach production reduction goals until then.
Euronews.green further reported that the company will invest $40 billion in oil and gas production through the next 13 years, all of this amid record profits, leaving many questioning the dirty energy company’s alleged commitment to shift to clean energy.
Mark van Baal, founder of Follow This, which unites shareholders to push Big Oil to clean up its act, told the Washington Post, “We have to regain momentum, or these companies will keep on saying they can continue with oil and gas because the majority of shareholders want them to do that. The fact that they are making so much money right now is not helping.”
Carla Denyer, co-leader of the U.K. Green party, told Euronews.green that Shell’s actions are “pure climate vandalism,” with Friends of the Earthadding that “like other fossil fuel giants which have also scaled back their ambitions, Shell now admits that it has no plans to change its business model.”
Why is this climate pledge pivot concerning?
Dirty energy sources, like oil, gas, and coal, are the largest contributor to Earth’s rising temperatures, accounting for more than 75% of the world’s overall heat-trapping gas pollution and nearly 90% of harmful carbon pollution, according to the U.N.
Because they’re such a huge part of the problem, dirty energy companies like Shell need to be a big part of the solution.
Making pledges like the ones Shell is now scaling back on to convince us that the company is a friend to our planet is called greenwashing, which is when a company makes false or misleading statements about the environmental benefits of one of its products or practices.
Greenwashing is a particularly sinister problem because it prevents real and very necessary progress from being made, while duping customers into spending our money with companies that are lying to us and hurting our planet.
What can be done?
Many organizations are working to hold Big Oil companies accountable for enacting real change, but it’s a long road.
As individuals, we can work to mitigate the harm done by these big companies by moving away from using their dirty energy sources.
We can switch from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles, limit the amount of single-use plastics we use, and switch to alternative sources of power at home when possible.
Join our free newsletter for cool news and actionable info that makes it easy to help yourself while helping the planet.
Florida has ‘Help Wanted’ hanging on it. Economist says labor shortage is here to stay
Mary Ellen Klas, Syra Ortiz Blanes – October 8, 2023
“We’re hiring” banners hang above grocery stories in nearly every community in Florida. “Help wanted” signs are taped to storefronts and posted on hundreds of online job boards. Florida’s unemployment rate is nearing a record low, even as the state population grows.
“Get used to it,” said Ron Hetrick, who lives in St. John’s County, south of Jacksonville. He’s a senior labor economist at labor market analytics firm Lightcast.
This is Florida’s new normal, and the results will translate into competitive wages, longer waits for professional and domestic services, and higher costs of living — for everyone.
Florida is unlike many other states because of its fast growth, aging population and dependence on migrants for both skilled and unskilled labor, Hetrick said. But a beefed-up state law that attempts to crack down on undocumented labor is exacerbating the deep hole in the work force that may take years to close.
“What makes Florida unique is that people are moving from all over the country, but the unemployment rate is not going up — it’s going down or holding a low level,’’ Hetrick said.
According to the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which is updating its 2021 “Workforce Needs Study,” 73% of job creators surveyed in Florida reported challenges in recruiting qualified candidates, and more than 58% reported they anticipate a need for training and “up-skilling” current employees.
Hardest hit are industries such as construction, restaurants, hotels, roofing, landscaping and agriculture, which traditionally have relied on both legal and illegal migrant workers. They have hit a new hurdle with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ recent crackdown on undocumented workers in Florida.
At DeSantis’ urging, legislators passed a package of immigration related measures this year that attempt to keep undocumented immigrants from coming into the state and make it more difficult for those living here to stay.
Dependence on migrant labor
Greg Batista, founder and owner of G. Batista Engineering & Construction, has seen the effect of the new laws first hand. He specializes in condo development in Miami-Dade and Broward counties and employs about 50 people.
“The immediate impact is that we’ve got four or five ongoing construction jobs at this moment and fewer people to do the jobs,’’ he said. “The job that you told the owner was going to take five months is now going to take 10 months.”
He attributed much of the problem to the exodus of construction workers from Florida.
“They’re just picking up and leaving to a state where they’re more friendly towards migrants, where they don’t have to be looking over their shoulder every 10 seconds and saying, ‘Look, I’m going have to go to be deported, going to go to jail, or I’m going to be fined,’ ’’ he said.
According to a 2021 analysis of U.S. Census data by the policy research and polling firm KFF, undocumented workers in Florida made up 11% of the state’s workforce, including 37% of all agriculture workers, 23% of construction workers, 14% of service workers, and 14% of transportation workers.
In Miami-Dade County, the number of all immigrants, legal and undocumented, are even higher: 65% of the county’s employed labor force are immigrants, according to the county’s Office of cq New Americans.
According to a survey of 25 Florida construction companies in 2023 by The Associated General Contractor of America and Autodesk, nearly all the surveyed companies were having difficulty filling some or all craft and salaried positions.
Eighty percent of companies reported having to increase base pay rates, 65% reported delays due to shortage of workers, and 68% said they expected to add new employees over the next 12 months.
Jeff Lozama, CEO of Miami-based glazing contractor CMS Group, said his staff is made up of immigrants and, without them, the construction industry in Florida could not continue at its current pace.
“They often take on jobs that are physically demanding and require skills in jobs that most Americans are not willing to take on,’’ he told an audience during the Miami Opportunity Summit in August.
Lozama recounted his company’s experiences at a recent job fair in Liberty Square, a predominantly Black community with a small immigrant population.
“We had a poor showing. It was really horrible. No one showed up,’’ he said. They also participated in a similar job fair in North Miami, home to a large Haitian population.
“There were busloads of immigrants that showed up,’’ Lozama said. “… It just tells you how important that immigrant population is.”
Many professions in Florida are heavily dependent on legal immigrants, such as nurses coming to Florida from the Philippines. The state’s agricultural industry depends on H2-A workers, a federal visa program that farmers use to bring temporary workers that harvest crops.
“People aren’t fully aware of just how dependent our labor force growth is on immigration,” Hetrick said. “A lot of our homes, a lot of our foods that we’re eating are because of immigration right now.”
Enforcement crackdown
Florida’s strengthened immigration laws increase the penalties for anyone who transports an undocumented migrant into the state, require hospitals that accept Medicaid to ask patients about their immigration status and require employers with 25 or more workers to check whether new hires are allowed to work in the country by using the federal E-verify program.
There is little evidence that the laws have produced many arrests, but they have had a chilling effect on available workers.
Rep. Rick Roth, a Belle Glade vegetable farmer and one of the Republican legislators who supported the laws strengthening immigration enforcement, said many Florida farmers are relying on a loophole in the law that allows seasonal workers who were employed last season to come back without having their immigration status checked.
“The good news is, we’re hearing pretty much from the industry that if you had a seasonal workforce back in April and May and you told them to come back in November, that’s not going to be a problem,’’ he said. “They’ll come back and we’ll get to treat them as returning workforce. They’re not new employees who would have to go through E-verify.”
Roth acknowledged, however, that the law has added to a labor shortage years in the making. “Absolutely,’’ it’s having an impact, he said. “The difficulty is measuring the problem.”
Florida’s retiree dilemma
As Florida has grown, so has its labor force — just not fast enough to meet the demand.
In 2008, before the Great Recession, the state’s unemployment rate was 2.4% and the labor force was about 9 million people. In 2023, the unemployment rate is 2.6% and there are 11 million people in the workforce. By comparison, the national unemployment rate is 3.8%
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, there were 552,000 job openings in Florida in July, the last month with data.
The dilemma now facing Florida, Hetrick said, is whether to continue to encourage population growth when that growth is not producing workers to match the demand, or tamp down expansion to allow the labor force to catch up and costs to stabilize.
Remote workers are coming to the Sunshine State bringing jobs with them, new residents quickly find something once they arrive, or retirees are coming with demands for services but aren’t working while they’re here, he explained.
“The reality is, to get somebody to fill your job, you’re gonna have to unseat them from an existing job,’’ he said.
Retirees entering Florida “used to be a good thing, but it’s not anymore,’’ he said. “Because you cannot have people who put demand on an economy but who don’t contribute to the supply of an economy.”
Former Gov. Rick Scott used his “Let’s Get to Work” mantra to activate Baby Boomers and get elected in Florida.
But, now job creation absent a steady stream of new workers is “the worst thing you could possibly do,’’ Hetrick said, “because your existing employers are dying and they need workers.”
Legal immigration slowdown
Part of the pressure of the influx of migrants on the U.S.-Mexico border is happening because consulates shut down and stopped processing visas during the pandemic, Hetrick said.
He tells governors and other elected officials with whom he consults across the country, that “instead of focusing so much attention on talking about what we should not be doing, let’s focus on what we should be doing: Creating faster visa processing, getting companies involved in sponsorships” and expanding the federal temporary worker programs of H2-A and H2-B.
“You would see a lot more people pursuing the legal route if they knew something would happen in two or three months, rather than two or three years,’’ he said.
Getting creative
Batista, the Davie construction and engineering company owner, said the market has forced him to “get creative.” In August, he went on a recruiting mission to a large engineering conference in Puerto Rico, an American territory, where he hoped to recruit U.S. citizens and avoid immigration paperwork.
He was prepared to pay to relocate structural engineers to have them move to Florida to help fill the need for people to certify inspections to meet Florida’s new condominium safety laws, he said.
But, he discovered, Puerto Rico continues to rebuild after Hurricane Maria, “everyone is looking for structural engineers” and none of the prospective candidates wanted to move to South Florida.
“I thought the trip to Puerto Rico was going to be more fruitful and it hasn’t been,’’ Batista said. “I don’t know what else to do. If people aren’t there, they aren’t there.”
Scientists warn of ‘silent pandemic’ stirring across the globe: ‘[This] could cause 10 million deaths per year by 2050’
Leo Collis – October 7, 2023
After the coronavirus pandemic, the world is on high alert for the next global health emergency.
Scientists are now warning about the risk to humans from the food production network, and factory farms are among the most concerning areas that could spawn the next virus.
What’s happening?
At the Compassion in World Farming event in London in May 2023, scientists, policymakers, and farmers met to discuss challenges within the industry and potential threats to human health.
Among the issues discussed was the use of antibiotics in factory farming, which has been found to lead to a potential problem when humans eat meat.
“Most antibiotic resistance in human medicine is actually due to the human use of antibiotics,” scientific adviser at the Alliance to Save Our Antibiotics Cóilín Nunan told Euronews.green. “However, there is clear evidence that the farm use of antibiotics is also contributing, not just to antibiotic resistance in farm animals, but also to infections in humans.”
With animals kept in close quarters on factory farms, hygiene standards are poor, and disease spreads more easily, so antibiotic use is frequent.
Why is this a concern?
The World Health Organization has described antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a “silent pandemic” and one of the top 10 global public health threats. Bacterial AMR has already been estimated to kill 1.3 million people a year.
If antibiotics are overused in farming, it could impact humans higher up the food chain as bacteria develop resistance to the drugs and multiply.
“If some of the bacteria have developed resistance, then these bacteria are unaffected by the antibiotic and can continue to proliferate, spreading from human to human, or from animal to animal, or from animal to human,” Nunan explained, per Euronews.green.
Nunan also described how animals fed antibiotics could end up with resistant bacteria in their gut at slaughter, leading to potential contamination of the carcass. This can spread to humans when handled or when undercooked meat is eaten.
Further, resistant bacteria can also enter the food system via animal manure, which is used to fertilize crops.
How can we prevent a “silent pandemic”?
Controlling AMR is essential, as experts predict it “could cause up to 10 million deaths a year by 2050,” per Euronews.green.
Nunan noted that better animal husbandry, such as providing animals with more space and improving hygiene, is one of the keys to preventing the spread of disease and, thus, the overuse of antibiotics. But there are already positive changes happening in the farming industry.
The EU has banned all forms of routine antibiotics on farms and the use of antibiotics to make up for poor farm husbandry.
The U.K. has also seen a 55% decrease in antibiotic use on farms since 2014, Euronews.green reported.
Consumer choices like buying responsibly sourced meat can also make a difference and discourage cheap and intensive farming methods that lead to animal disease and potential problems later on in the food chain.
Forget squats and lunges—strengthen your body with this 20-minute knee-friendly workout
Lois Mackenzie – October 6, 2023
Person doing a kettlebell swing.
Squats and lunges are a staple of many great workouts, but they aren’t gentle on the knees. If you’re looking to take some strain away from your lower-body joints, try this low-impact full-body routine instead. There’s not a squat or lunge in sight.
Certified personal trainer Roxanne Russell (Workout With Roxanne) leads you through each exercise via the follow-along video below. All you need to get started is a kettlebell and 20 minutes of free time.
You’ll be working for 60 seconds on a strength-based exercise, which is followed by 30 seconds of cardio and a 15-second break.
Pay close attention to Russell’s form during the workout, to help you hone your own technique (kettlebell swings can be hard to perfect) and don’t even think about skipping her thorough warm up.
Watch Roxanne Russell’s knee-friendly workout
Low-impact sessions place less strain on your joints, improving your fitness and strengthening your body without subjecting your knees, hips and ankles to the stresses of running and jumping.
This particular low-impact routine uses supersets, which means you perform one exercise straight after another with no rest in between. Russell has twinned strength-building exercises with cardio moves, which will help you build muscle and burn calories at the same time.
Burning calories with a sweaty cardio session is one way to create a calorie deficit for weight loss, if that’s your goal. But it’s worth bearing in mind that strength training can help with weight loss, too.
That’s because strength training helps you build muscle, which is a metabolically active tissue. This means that muscle (unlike fat) takes energy to maintain, so it burns more calories even when you’re resting.
How hot is too hot for humans? Local physician tells how climate change affects us
Carolyn Krause – October 6, 2023
As the Earth heats up owing to increased fossil fuel use and deforestation, Americans should be aware that heat waves are the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the country and that certain high temperature ranges can endanger our health and even the ability of our cellphones to work.
That was the message presented by Elaine Bunick, a retired endocrinologist who has traveled to Ghana, Haiti and other countries on medical mission trips. In her recent talk to Altrusa International of Oak Ridge, she presented extensive information on the effects of climate change on the environment, human health and healthcare facilities.
She provided advice on how to protect yourself from excessive heat. And she relayed predictions on impending health care worker shortages that likely made some audience members hot and bothered.
This summer in Oak Ridge, she said, residents experienced 33 days with temperatures greater than 90 degrees Fahrenheit. July was the hottest month. Bunick said people can expect to have to endure 20 to 30 more days a year of sizzling heat with peak temperatures over 90.
A check with Methodist Medical Center of Oak Ridge indicated that the emergency room reported more cardiac issues and interventions this year than in the past, but an increased death rate was not observed. Heat waves and air pollution from burning forests can cause heart problems.
Heat is greater risk for some
Bunick said people with chronic medical conditions, such as heart disease, respiratory disorders, diabetes, obesity and kidney ailments, have a greater risk for succumbing to heat illnesses.
“Medications such as antidepressants, beta blockers, calcium channel blockers, diuretics, antipsychotics and opioids alter your ability to handle the heat,” she added.
The increased heat, she said, will especially endanger the health of outdoor workers, such as farmers, police officers, firefighters, road workers, power line maintenance workers and transporters of supplies to stores and homes. The loss of labor hours, she added, will hurt the economy.
Others who are most susceptible to falling ill from excessive heat are persons older than 65, infants, children, pregnant women, people with pre-existing medical conditions and disabilities, athletes and people living in lower-income households or those who are homeless.
Take care of each other
“We have to be adaptable and protect each other to survive,” Bunick said. She cited statistics on the future of health care in the nation.
“The U.S. is predicted to have a shortage of 129,000 doctors and 200,000 nurse practitioners, physician assistants and technical personnel by 2034,” she said. “That’s scary. Our population has an increasing number of seniors – we’re almost 25% of the population. Who is going to care for us? We’re going to have to care for each other.”
She noted that “in the early 2000s, the U.S. government put a cap on the number of doctors, nurses and physician assistants that can be trained. To this day they have not rescinded that order, so we have a growing shortage of trained medical staff. It takes 15 years to train a specialist like me and six years to train a nurse.”
The average temperature of the earth’s surface has been around 58 degrees Fahrenheit. This year, Bunick said, “the earth’s average surface temperature rose to 62.9 degrees and the oceans reached a peak of 69 degrees, almost the temperature of bath water. That was hottest ocean temperature ever recorded.”
Heat indexes, heat exhaustion and more
So, how hot is too hot? What are the dangerous temperatures and heat indexes for humans?
A normal adult body temperature, when taken orally, can range from 97.6 to 99.6 degrees Fahrenheit. According to Bunick, “The hottest air temperature for human survival is 123.8 degrees; beyond that you’re unlikely to survive. A body temperature over 108.14 degrees causes the body to become scrambled because the heat fries the proteins, denaturing them and causing dysfunction of enzymes and harm to the brain. Death can occur within six hours. Building heat tolerance and acclimatization takes about six weeks.”
According to one of her slides, a human body temperature of 103 to 104 degrees Fahrenheit can cause confusion and impaired judgment, and a temperature of 109 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit can cause brain damage, seizures, cardio-respiratory collapse, shock and death. The highest temperature recorded of a person surviving a heat stroke was 115.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
The heat index is a measure of the interaction of temperature and humidity. “Sweat cools the body by evaporation but if it’s too humid, you can’t add any more moisture to the air,” she said. A heat index of 95 degrees is considered the absolute limit of human tolerance above which the body cannot lose heat efficiently enough to maintain core temperature and avoid brain and organ damage within about six hours.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke are headache, nausea, dizziness, weakness, irritability, thirst, heavy sweating, elevated body temperature, confusion, altered mental status, slurred speech, loss of consciousness, profuse sweating, and seizures. Under these conditions, the body temperature is higher than 104 degrees Fahrenheit.
To protect yourself from heat exhaustion or heat stroke when you’re outdoors on hot days, the CDC recommends that you wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing and a sun hat; take breaks to drink water and cool down in an air-conditioned or shady place; wear sunscreen and sunglasses when you’re outside; drink Gatorade or other drinks with electrolytes; avoid alcoholic beverages, splash yourself with water or use a cold, wet cloth to cool down and check your body temperature periodically.
To treat someone with heat exhaustion, move them to a cool area, give frequent sips of cool water, apply cold and wet compresses, remove unnecessary clothing, call 911 or take the individual to the ER for medical evaluation and treatment. If you and others are on a hike on a hot day, she warned, be sure you keep your cellphone cool and out of direct sunlight or a hot car (120 degrees). Between 96 and 109 degrees the battery will be so damaged that your phone will no longer allow you to make emergency calls.
Bunick noted that weather-related and climate-related events can threaten human health and safety in other ways. Wildfires and house fires can release cancer-causing and other irritating particles to the air, causing respiratory disease and heart issues. She advised checking on the EPA Air Quality Index (stay inside when the air is labeled Code Orange, Red, Purple or Maroon) and wearing N95 or KN95 masks if you must be outside when the air is unhealthy.
Wear insect repellant because ticks and mosquitoes migrating north as the climate warms carry Lyme disease, West Nile virus, dengue fever and malaria, according to one of her slides. Climate change can increase the probability that people get sick from disease-carrying organisms entering drinking water and from harmful algal blooms caused by algae and bacteria present in waters where people swim, causing eye irritation and respiratory illness especially in people with asthma.
“In 2022 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced there were 18 weather-related disasters costing over $1 billion each,” Bunick said.
Some of these disasters caused flooding, leading to drownings and homes destroyed by unhealthy mold. The disasters included heat waves, drought, flooding, hailstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes and winter storms. The death and destruction from these disasters cause mental health problems in victims.
Hospitals are preparing
Bunick said that administrators of hospitals, which use lots of electricity and produce 10% of U.S. greenhouse gases, as well as their healthcare workforce, are preparing for climate-related emergencies and extreme weather events that can disrupt operations, including hurricanes, floods and wildfires. Medicines in hospital pharmacies may be damaged by floods or by the heat, causing them to lose their potency. She gave an example close to home.
“Many hospitals keep their computers, medicines and other important supplies in the basement,” she said. “Recently, there was a water main break at Fort Sanders hospital in Knoxville. My son-in-law, who’s in charge of home infusion therapy at Fort Sanders, had to rush to save the medication in the hospital basement pharmacy from six inches of water!”
People have been quick to blame climate change – and they’re right: Human-caused global warming does play the biggest role. For example, a study determined that the weekslong heat wave in Texas, the U.S. Southwest and Mexico that started in June 2023 would have been virtually impossible without it.
However, the extremes this year are sharper than anthropogenic global warming alone would be expected to cause. September temperatures were far above any previous September, and around 3.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.75 degrees Celsius) above the preindustrial average, according to the European Union’s earth observation program.
July was Earth’s hottest month on record, also by a large margin, with average global temperatures more than half a degree Fahrenheit (a third of a degree Celsius) above the previous record, set just a few years earlier in 2019.
September 2023’s temperatures were far above past Septembers. CopernicusJuly 2023 was the hottest month on record and well above past Julys. Copernicus Climate Change ServiceMore
Human activities have been increasing temperatures at an average of about 0.2 F (0.1 C) per decade. But this year, three additional natural factors are also helping drive up global temperatures and fuel disasters: El Niño, solar fluctuations and a massive underwater volcanic eruption.
Unfortunately, these factors are combining in a way that is exacerbating global warming. Still worse, we can expect unusually high temperatures to continue, which means even more extreme weather in the near future.
An illustration by the author shows the typical relative impact on temperature rise driven by human activities compared with natural forces. El Niño/La Niña and solar energy cycles fluctuate. The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s underwater eruption exacerbated global warming. Michael Wysession
Essentially, the atmosphere borrows heat out of the Pacific, and global temperatures increase slightly. This happened in 2016, the time of the last strong El Niño. Global temperatures increased by about 0.25 F (0.14 C) on average, making 2016 the warmest year on record. A weak El Niño also occurred in 2019-2020, contributing to 2020 becoming the world’s second-warmest year.
El Niño’s opposite, La Niña, involves cooler-than-usual Pacific currents flowing westward, absorbing heat out of the atmosphere, which cools the globe. The world just came out of three straight years of La Niña, meaning we’re experiencing an even greater temperature swing.
Based on increasing Pacific sea surface temperatures in mid-2023, climate modeling now suggests a 90% chance that Earth is headed toward its first strong El Niño since 2016.
Combined with the steady human-induced warming, Earth may soon again be breaking its annual temperature records. June 2023 was the hottest in modern record. July saw global records for the hottest days and a large number of regional records, including an incomprehensible heat index of 152 F (67 C) in Iran.
Solar fluctuations
The Sun may seem to shine at a constant rate, but it is a seething, churning ball of plasma whose radiating energy changes over many different time scales.
The Sun is slowly heating up and in half a billion years will boil away Earth’s oceans. On human time scales, however, the Sun’s energy output varies only slightly, about 1 part in 1,000, over a repeating 11-year cycle. The peaks of this cycle are too small for us to notice at a daily level, but they affect Earth’s climate systems.
Rapid convection within the Sun both generates a strong magnetic field aligned with its spin axis and causes this field to fully flip and reverse every 11 years. This is what causes the 11-year cycle in emitted solar radiation.
Sunspot activity is considered a proxy for the Sun’s energy output. The last 11-year solar cycle was unusually weak. The current cycle isn’t yet at its maximum. NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterMore
Earth’s temperature increase during a solar maximum, compared with average solar output, is only about 0.09 F (0.05 C), roughly a third of a large El Niño. The opposite happens during a solar minimum. However, unlike the variable and unpredictable El Niño changes, the 11-year solar cycle is comparatively regular, consistent and predictable.
The last solar cycle hit its minimum in 2020, reducing the effect of the modest 2020 El Niño. The current solar cycle has already surpassed the peak of the relatively weak previous cycle (which was in 2014) and will peak in 2025, with the Sun’s energy output increasing until then.
A massive volcanic eruption
Volcanic eruptions can also significantly affect global climates. They usually do this by lowering global temperatures when erupted sulfate aerosols shield and block a portion of incoming sunlight – but not always.
The eruption released an unusually small amount of cooling sulfate aerosols but an enormous amount of water vapor. The molten magma exploded underwater, vaporizing a huge volume of ocean water that erupted like a geyser high into the atmosphere.
Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, and the eruption may end up warming Earth’s surface by about 0.06 F (0.035 C), according to one estimate. Unlike the cooling sulfate aerosols, which are actually tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that fall out of the atmosphere within one to two years, water vapor is a gas that can stay in the atmosphere for many years. The warming impact of the Tonga volcano is expected to last for at least five years.
Underlying it all: Global warming
All of this comes on top of anthropogenic, or human-caused, global warming.
Humans have raised global average temperatures by about 2 F (1.1 C) since 1900 by releasing large volumes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is up 50%, primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels in vehicles and power plants. The warming from greenhouse gases is actually greater than 2 F (1.1 C), but it has been masked by other human factors that have a cooling effect, such as air pollution.
If human impacts were the only factors, each successive year would set a new record as the hottest year ever, but that doesn’t happen. The year 2016 was the warmest in part because temperatures were boosted by the last large El Niño.
What does this mean for the future?
The next couple of years could be very rough.
If a strong El Niño develops over the coming months as forecasters expect, combined with the solar maximum and the effects of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, Earth’s temperatures will likely continue to soar.
A heavy downpour flooded streets across the New York City region, shutting down subways, schools and businesses on Sept. 29, 2023. AP Photo/Jake OffenhartzMore
In January 2023, scientists wrote that Earth’s temperature had a greater than 50% chance of reaching 2.7 F (1.5 C) above preindustrial era temperatures by the year 2028, at least temporarily, increasing the risk of triggering climate tipping points with even greater human impacts. Because of the unfortunate timing of several parts of the climate system, it seems the odds are not in our favor.
This article, originally published July 27, 2023, has been updated with September’s record heat.
Michael Wysession does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Franklin elections: Hanson says Tennessee Active Club not hired; board decries ‘neo-Nazis’
Craig Shoup, Nashville Tennessean – October 4, 2023
Controversial Franklin mayoral candidate Gabrielle Hanson posted on social media Wednesday that she did not hire members of the Tennessee Active Club, an organization identified by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a white nationalist hate group, for security during Monday’s candidate forum.
Hanson’s comments were followed by a response from Franklin’s Board of Mayor and Aldermen, which released its own public statement via email within hours of her post.
“We, the Board of Mayor and Aldermen, are deeply concerned and disturbed by the events that unfolded at Monday night’s candidate forum for the upcoming city election,” the board’s statement reads. “Individuals identifying as neo-Nazi’s and self-admitted supporters of Gabrielle Hanson threatened both our citizens and members of the media during and after this important civic event.”
The board’s statement said it wouldn’t “tolerate any form of hatred, intimidation, or violence directed at our residents, media representatives, or anyone else attending or participating in the democratic process,” and it urged all candidates currently seeking office in Franklin, including Hanson, to “join us in denouncing the actions and organizations as well.”
The statement ended with the names of the current Franklin board, including Hanson’s opponent in the mayoral race, incumbent Ken Moore. She wasn’t listed.
In her post, Hanson said she wanted to set the record straight about what happened Monday.
“I want to make something very clear. I did not hire the group that showed up at the debate the other night, nor did I ask them to participate as security for the event. I want to be unequivocal on this matter,” Hanson said in the statement posted to her Instagram story Wednesday afternoon.
“Furthermore, I want to state categorically that I am not, nor have I ever been associated with any white supremacy or Nazi-affiliated group.”
Hanson explained that she’s working as the “broker on Brad’s (Lewis Country) store,” and categorized her interactions with him as nothing but professional and courteous. Lewis Country Store came under fire earlier this summer after it was revealed that members of the Tennessee Active Club were using the gym above the store.
Media coverage focusing on the Tennessee Active Club’s presence at the forum is “nothing more than a baseless hit piece meant to distract from the real issues at hand,” Hanson wrote.
Tennessee Active Club also released statements about what happened Monday, noting that it was “absurd Gabrielle Hanson hired us. We do this for free at our own expense.”
The group did not say whether Hanson asked them for help.
MAGA Mayoral Candidate Seemingly Promotes White Nationalists in News Release
Josh Fiallo – October 4, 2023
Office of Alderman Gabrielle Hanson
Gabrielle Hanson, the MAGA-loving mayoral candidate who’s become embroiled in controversy after controversy this year, has done it again—this time inserting screenshots of messages from a known white nationalist group into her own news release.
Hanson, who’s vying to become the mayor of Franklin, Tennessee, shared the messages in an attempt to prove that the Tennessee Active Club—a recognized hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center—weren’t invited to provide security for her outside a mayoral forum on Monday. She claimed they instead showed up and acted on their own.
But Hanson never condemned the neo-Nazis in her news release, nor did she ask them to not show up at future forums and events. Instead, she embedded three Telegram messages to a news release that did more to promote the hate group than it did to denounce it.
The posts claimed the current Franklin mayor, Ken Moore, has connections to “antifa”—a blanket term for a loosely-affiliated network of anti-fascist groups that have battled right-wing demonstrators at various public gatherings over the past few years—and that the group of white nationalists showed up to provide security for community members.
“Our group is not backing any political entity but is protecting the public from Antifa,” the first message said. “Remember there is no political solution.”
The other messages emphasized that the group showed up “for free at our own expense” and that they’ll continue to pop up at municipal gatherings until Franklin—a wealthy suburb of Nashville that’s famously home to scores of country musicians and their families—is free of antifa.
Hanson emphasized in her release that she’s never been associated with a neo-Nazi group. She also took a shot at the local TV news reporter Phil Williams—who’s been a thorn in Hanson’s side—by claiming he published a “baseless hit piece” for pointing out that white supremacists escorted Hanson and her husband inside Monday’s forum.
Others involved in Franklin politics quickly denounced the Active Club’s presence, including Moore and State Rep. Sam Whitson, but Hanson never did. In a News Channel 5 report, Williams said that masked neo-Nazis told reporters on Monday that they were “just here to protect Gabrielle.”
One of the men working as security detail reportedly identified himself as Sean Kauffmann, who was described by the Stop Antisemitism watchdog group as being a “disturbed neo-Nazi and Holocaust denier with a documented history of violence and a massive cache of firearms.” He was reportedly spotted doing a Nazi salute outside a drag show in Cookeville, Tennessee, earlier this year.
Hanson’s beef with Williams escalated last week. The reporter’s station was the first to reveal on Sept. 27 that Hanson’s husband once rocked an American flag Speedo—and nothing else, save for a gold chain, glasses, and shoes—to a Pride event in Chicago, with Hanson’s blessing. The report exposed her hypocrisy on LGBTQ issues, as she’d earlier that year used her position as a city alderman to try to stop a local Pride festival because she feared it’d bring out drag queens and scantily clad revelers she deemed a threat to “innocent children.”
Later that day, drama broke out at a mayoral forum held inside a ritzy subdivision’s clubhouse, with Hanson-supporting residents getting into a nasty—and briefly physical—spat with Williams as he tried to enter the event with a cameraman.
One Hanson supporter was captured on video taking a swipe at Williams, which prompted a Franklin cop to scold the woman and say, “Stop touching him or you’re going to jail.” After the event, Hanson didn’t apologize for her supporters’ behavior, instead railing against Williams on Facebook and painting him as an agitator. A recording by a journalist at the event also captured Hanson telling someone, “No Channel 5. They have to leave.”
Even prior to last week’s forum, Hanson routinely put herself in the center of drama. She claimed in May that Audrey Hale, the shooter who gunned down six before being killed by cops at The Covenant School, was in a love triangle with staffers there. Cops immediately shot that rumor down as false, but Hanson has still insisted her sources know the truth.
Hanson has also been skewered for downplaying lynching and for opposing the addition of “racial terror” markers in Franklin. She was also criticized for bizarrely threatening to retaliate against the local airport for supporting a Juneteenth festival, and it was revealed in September that she was arrested in college for promoting prostitution—charges she claimed publicly amounted to a simple misdemeanor, though Williams confirmed last week that they were actually felony charges.
Whether Hanson’s laundry list of controversies will hurt her at the polls will be known soon, as Franklin’s mayoral election is slated to be held on Oct. 24.
