Category: Labor and Working

‘There’s simply not enough water’: Colorado River cutbacks ripple across Arizona

AZ Central – The Arizona Republic

‘There’s simply not enough water’: Colorado River cutbacks ripple across Arizona

Debra Utacia Krol, Arizona Republic – August 23, 2022

A view of the Hoover Dam and the Colorado River.
A view of the Hoover Dam and the Colorado River.

Up and down the Colorado River last week, the state, local and tribal leaders in charge of water supplies for more than 40 million people waited to see if the federal government would impose deeper cuts to river allocations.

The Bureau of Reclamation had given states and tribes an Aug. 15 deadline to find ways to conserve 2 to 4 million more acre-feet of water to stabilize the drought-stricken river and its two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Without such a plan, the bureau said, it would act.

The deadline passed with no agreement in place.

And on Tuesday, the government presented its 2023 water forecasts and said based on projected water levels at the two reservoirs, it would institute the next level of water reductions already agreed upon by the seven states and 30 federally recognized tribes within the Colorado River basin. The Drought Contingency Plan outlines specific steps Reclamation would take if the river flows continue to decline.

The next round of cuts to the three lower basin states and Mexico means that Arizona will have to do with 21% less water than in previous years. Nevada lost 8% of its delivery and Mexico’s allocation was reduced by 7%. The only lower basin state to be spared cuts is California, which holds senior rights to the river.

The bureau did not impose the deeper cuts as some had anticipated. Instead, Interior Department officials said talks would continue to come up with additional reductions as needed. The agency noted that the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act included $4 billion in money to address drought.

Few people were entirely satisfied with the government’s announcement, but one stakeholder went further than the others in expressing disappointment, introducing a new wrinkle in talks among the river’s water users.

The Gila River Indian Community said it would no longer voluntarily leave part of its Colorado River allocation in Lake Mead, an arrangement that helped Arizona meet the requirements of a regional agreement last year. Instead, tribal officials said in a statement Tuesday, Gila River would return to banking its water.

Tribes, agencies upset

In December 2021, the Gila River Indian Community and the Colorado River Indian Tribes signed onto an agreement to leave a combined 179,000 acre-feet of their river allotment in Lake Mead as a way to prop up the reservoir.

The agreement was part of a larger pact by several states and water districts to conserve 500,000 acre-feet per year in Lake Mead, where water levels were dropping rapidly. The pact was in addition to other conservation measures and was known as the 500+ plan.

The initiative was a pledge by the Interior Department as well as water agencies and tribes in the three Lower Basin states and stretched through 2023. The two tribes’ contributions made Arizona’s contribution to the effort possible.

Hoover Dam (top right) and Lake Mead on May 11, 2021, on the Arizona and Nevada border. A high-water mark or bathtub ring is visible on the shoreline. Lake Mead is down 152 vertical feet.
Hoover Dam (top right) and Lake Mead on May 11, 2021, on the Arizona and Nevada border. A high-water mark or bathtub ring is visible on the shoreline. Lake Mead is down 152 vertical feet.

The Arizona Department of Water Resources committed up to $40 million to the plan over its two-year period, while the Central Arizona Project, the Metropolitan Water District in California and the Southern Nevada Water Authority each ponied up $20 million. The federal government matched those contributions for a $200 million pool  to fund fallowing fields and other conservation measures.

But the failure to move forward on a longer term plan to firm up water supplies didn’t sit well with Gila River.

“The Community has been shocked and disappointed to see the complete lack of progress in reaching the kind of cooperative basin-wide plan necessary to save the Colorado River system,” said Gila River Governor Stephen Roe Lewis.

“We are aware that this approach will have a very significant impact on the ability of the State of Arizona to make any meaningful commitment to water reductions in the basin state discussions,” Lewis said, “but we cannot continue to put the interests of all others above our own when no other parties seem committed to the common goal of a cooperative basin-wide agreement.”

Lewis also praised the Southern Nevada Water Authority’s general manager, John Entsminger, for his plain speaking in an Aug. 15 letter to the Interior Department.

“What has been a slow-moving train wreck for twenty years is accelerating and our moment of reckoning is near.” Entsminger wrote. “The unreasonable expectations of water users, including the prices and drought profiteering proposals, only divide common goals and interests.”

Entsminger also outlined several steps the states, tribes and water agencies could take to minimize their use of Colorado River water, including agricultural efficiency enhancement, removing lawns, investing in water reuse, recycling and desalination programs and habitat restoration.

“We appreciate the support of Governor Lewis and the Gila River Indian Community for the recommended actions Nevada has put forth,” Entsminger said in an emailed statement. “Nevada stands ready to work with any partners who seek solutions based upon real world, equitable and sound scientific principles to the monumental challenges facing the Colorado River.”

In Arizona, officials looked for ways to repair the rift.

“The Gila River Indian Community has a been a big part of the positive actions Arizona has taken to protect Lake Mead in recent years,” the Central Arizona Project said in an emailed statement.

The agency praised the tribe for their work to develop the Drought Contingency Plan and in conserving water.

“We are understanding of the Community’s position that others need to be part of the Colorado River solution,” the CAP statement said. “We are hopeful that if a broader plan for taking action comes together that Arizona can support, the Community will choose to  participate along with other Arizona water users.”

The Arizona Department of Water Resources declined comment on the statement.

The Colorado River Indian Tribes said it would continue to make water available for conservation through 2023.

“The Colorado River Indian Tribes are also development a multiyear farming and fallowing plan that includes additional conservation measures to be implement during 2023 and for many years thereafter,” said CRIT Chairwoman Amelia Flores.

Colorado River: Deep cuts loom as water levels plunge. Who will feel the pain most?

Feds should act ‘to avoid catastrophe’

Other water agencies and elected officials said they would continue to work with Reclamation to develop a longer-term plan to stabilize the reservoirs and assure at least some water would continue to flow.

Phoenix officials said in an emailed statement that although their water customers would not be affected by the cuts, the lack of action by federal officials was “disappointing.” The city gave up 23% of its river allocation to stabilize Lake Mead and support Pinal County farmers who lost river water when the first round of cuts was announced a year ago, the statement said.

The city is acting to ensure water deliveries and reduce dependence on the Colorado, officials said. A $300 million pipeline will move water to North Phoenix, which currently relies on the Colorado River for water. Phoenix is also restoring ecosystems in the Salt River, which provides 60% of the city’s water, the statement said. And, the city is beefing up infrastructure.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., said she would work with her newly-created water advisory council, state stakeholders and neighboring states to ensure a secure water future.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., and Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis (Gila River Indian Community) talk during the Water Advisory Council meeting, Aug. 8, 2022, in the Hoover Dam Spillway House, 75 Hoover Dam Access Road, Boulder City, Nevada.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., and Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis (Gila River Indian Community) talk during the Water Advisory Council meeting, Aug. 8, 2022, in the Hoover Dam Spillway House, 75 Hoover Dam Access Road, Boulder City, Nevada.

“Arizona’s future depends on the strength and resiliency of our water supply,” she said via a spokesperson. “As the West continues experiencing historic drought, Arizona has led the way identifying short and long term solutions while shouldering a disproportionate share of this crisis.”

Sinema said that $13 billion had been secured for drought resiliency funding over the past year through several bills including the most recent act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and other legislation.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., wrote the Interior Department last week calling for the agency to outline its options to implement mitigation actions to prevent “drastic consequences for Arizona and other Colorado Basin states.” If the reservoirs’ levels continue to drop, those consequences could include the loss of hydropower generation and even to deadpool conditions, where no water would flow out of Lake Mead.

“In 2022 alone, Arizona farmers, cities, and tribes have pledged resources to conserve over 800,000 acre-feet of water — an amount equal to nearly one-third of our state’s full allocation,” Kelly said in the letter. He added that Arizona has offered to put more “wet” water on the table to be conserved than other states.

At least one congressman also called for more action from the federal government.

“The Colorado River is in crisis, and talks among basin states to fairly spread the pain of much-needed cutbacks are going nowhere,” said Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Ariz.. “The federal government must play a stronger role. I’m urging the Administration to take immediate action to avoid catastrophe.”

Stanton said in a letter to President Joe Biden that the cuts announced Aug. 16 were already mandated by the Drought Contingency Plan, while in June, Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton said that unless another 2 to 4 million acre-feet were cut, the government would take action.

“Yesterday’s announcement proved that commitment hollow,” Stanton wrote.

One of the largest single water users on the river said it was ready to collaborate on further solutions. The Imperial Irrigation District in southern California manages an allocation of 3.1 million acre-feet, including pass through water, larger than Arizona’s entire Colorado River allocation of 2.8 million acre-feet.

Since 2003, the utility has conserved more than 7 million acre-feet of water according to an Aug. 16 statement. The district said it would work to conserve water and to help restore the Salton Sea, which has declined rapidly in recent years as the utility slashed agricultural runoff that fed the lake.

Lake levels: Report: Modify Glen Canyon Dam or risk losing the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

‘We have to take it seriously’
A view of the Colorado River as it flows through the Colorado River Indian Tribes' Ahakhav Tribal Preserve in Parker on Nov. 13, 2021.
A view of the Colorado River as it flows through the Colorado River Indian Tribes’ Ahakhav Tribal Preserve in Parker on Nov. 13, 2021.

At least one water expert said he doesn’t believe the situation will improve in a year.

“The Colorado River is going to continue to decline,” said David Feldman, a professor at the University of California, Irvine and director of Water UCI, an institute that studies water problems facing the nation and the world.

He said many of the problems that have arisen from the plunging levels of Lake Mead and Lake Powell will be ongoing.

“So you have to start from the baseline that is simply not going to be any more surface water available from this point forward, at least not for the foreseeable future,” Feldman said. “The next steps, I believe, should be that each state should figure out a way to get user groups, local governments, water agencies, irrigation districts together in conversations about how they would negotiate targets for prescribed cutbacks based on water availability figures.”

Feldman said he understands Gila River’s stance.

“The drought did not cause the angst of tribal nations towards allocation agreements,” he said, but the drought has exacerbated it. “The tribes have been frustrated. The Navajo Nation, Hopi, others have been concerned for decades now about water allocation agreements on the Colorado and its tributaries.”

In depth: Tribes take a central role in water management as drought and climate change effects worsen

He also said the West is still not quite at the point to have a serious conversation about the future of water, “about our children and our children’s children.” Feldman said that if, as many forecasts predict, climate change is permanent and not just cyclical, water officials will need to plan far ahead.

“What are we going to do about the the water and the water needs and how are we going to plan to aggressively conserve?”

Strategies from recycling and reuse to landscaping all need to be on the table, he said, since outdoor irrigation accounts for one-third to one-half of urban water use. But just reducing urban outdoor use won’t be enough to address the shortages to come.

He also disputed some assertions that cities shouldn’t exist in arid lands. “The Mesopotamians did okay,” Feldman said, as well as the Huhugam in the Salt River Valley. Living in the desert, or having a lot of people, doesn’t by itself cause the problem, he said. “It’s how we live in that environment.”

Feldman pointed out that other arid parts of the world have done well, including Israel. “The Israelis have really become very savvy in the sense of not only developing the technologies, but then realizing there’s a market for it,” he said.

“We can live in a water scarce environment without sacrificing our quality of life,” Feldman said. “But we have to take it seriously.”

Debra Krol reports on Indigenous communities at the confluence of climate, culture and commerce in Arizona and the Intermountain West.

Coverage of Indigenous issues at the intersection of climate, culture and commerce is supported by the Catena Foundation.

Trump envoy releases letter from National Archives deemed ‘extraordinarily damning’ for Trump

The Week

Trump envoy releases letter from National Archives deemed ‘extraordinarily damning’ for Trump

Peter Weber, Senior editor – August 23, 2022

U.S. National Archives

The National Archives and Records Administration waited until May 12 to give the FBI access to the highly classified documents retrieved from former President Donald Trump in January, despite the Justice Department’s “urgent” requests for the materials, according to a letter from National Archivist Debra Wall released late Monday by conservative journalist John Solomon, one of Trump’s two authorized NARA liaisons.

The May 10 letter to Trump’s lawyers also affirms that the National Archives found more than 700 pages of classified documents, including “special access program materials” — among the most highly classified secrets in government — in the 15 boxes recovered from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago complex. More classified material was taken from Mar-a-Lago by the FBI in June and August.

Much of the letter covers Wall’s rejection of a request by Trump’s lawyers to shield the documents from the FBI on executive privilege grounds. The White House counsel said President Biden “defers to my determination,” Wall wrote, and after discussions with the Office of Legal Counsel, “the question in this case is not a close one.”

“The executive branch here is seeking access to records belonging to, and in the custody of, the federal government itself,” Wall wrote, “not only in order to investigate whether those records were handled in an unlawful manner but also, as the National Security Division explained, to ‘conduct an assessment of the potential damage resulting from the apparent manner in which these materials were stored and transported and take any necessary remedial steps.'”

The letter released by Trump’s team is “extraordinarily damning for Trump” and his team, Politico‘s Kyle Cheney marveled on Twitter. “Trump allies pointed to this letter as some kind of evidence of Biden White House meddling,” but “what it shows is officials expressing extreme alarm about national security damage based on records being held by Trump.”

The NARA letter is “damning” to Trump “on any number of levels,” including its “lack of any reference to a claim by Trump’s representatives that he had declassified any of the classified materials,” adds University of Texas law professor Steve Vladeck. “It’s also telling that, even though this letter really hurts the Trump version of events, it wasn’t released by the Biden Administration or NARA. It was released by Trump’s own team — both a self-inflicted wound and further proof of how the government has been playing by the rules.”

Economic Aid, Once Plentiful, Falls Off at a Painful Moment

The New York Times

Economic Aid, Once Plentiful, Falls Off at a Painful Moment

Jim Tankersley – August 23, 2022

With the cost of living outpacing her pay, Tamela Clover has begun relying on a food pantry in Portland, Oregon. (Ivan McClellan/The New York Times)
With the cost of living outpacing her pay, Tamela Clover has begun relying on a food pantry in Portland, Oregon. (Ivan McClellan/The New York Times)

PORTLAND, Ore. — For the better part of last year, the pandemic eased its grip on Oregon’s economy. Awash in federal assistance, including direct checks to individuals and parents, many of the state’s most vulnerable found it easier to afford food, housing and other daily staples.

Most of that aid, which was designed to be a temporary bridge, has run out at a particularly bad moment. Oregon, like states across the nation, has seen its economy improve, but prices for everything from eggs to gas to rent have spiked. Demand is growing at food banks such as William Temple House in Northwest Portland, where the line for necessities like bread, vegetables and toilet paper stretched two dozen people deep on a recent day.

“I’m very worried, like I was in the first month of the pandemic, that we will run out of food,” said Susannah Morgan, who runs the Oregon Food Bank, which helps supply William Temple House and 1,400 other meal assistance sites.

In March 2021, President Joe Biden signed into law a $1.9 trillion aid package aimed at helping people stay afloat when the economy was still reeling from the coronavirus. In addition to direct checks, the package included rental assistance and other measures meant to prevent evictions. It ensured free school lunches and offered expanded food assistance through several programs.

Those programs helped the U.S. economy recover far more quickly than many economists had expected, but they have run their course as prices soar at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve, in an attempt to tame inflation, is rapidly raising borrowing costs, slowing the economy’s growth and stoking fears of a recession. While the labor market remains remarkably strong, the Fed’s interest rate increases risk slamming the brakes on the economy and pushing millions of people out of work, which would hurt lower-wage workers and risk adding to evictions and food insecurity.

Several factors have driven prices higher in the last year, including a shift in spending toward goods such as couches and cars and away from services. Supply chain snarls, a buying frenzy in the housing market and an oil price spike surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine have also contributed. While gas prices have fallen in recent months, rent continues to rise, and food and other staples remain elevated.

Another factor fueling inflation, at least in small part, is the stimulus spending that helped speed the economy’s recovery and keep people out of poverty. More money in people’s bank accounts translated into more consumer spending.

While the extent to which the rescue package fed inflation remains a matter of disagreement, almost no one, in Washington or on the front lines of helping vulnerable people across the country, expects another round of federal aid even if the economy tips into a recession. Lawmakers have grown increasingly concerned that more stimulus could exacerbate rising prices.

In the meantime, the progress that the Biden administration hailed in fighting poverty last year has faded. The national child poverty rate and the food hardship rate for families with children, which dipped in 2021, have both rebounded to their highest levels since December 2020, according to researchers at Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy. Two in five Americans surveyed by the Census Bureau at the end of July said they had difficulty paying a usual household expense in the previous week, the highest rate in two years of the survey.

What is happening at the William Temple House is emblematic of the economic situation. Demand for food is swelling again, and officials here blame rising prices and lost federal aid. The people seeking help come from a wide variety of backgrounds: parents, retirees struggling to stretch Social Security benefits, immigrants who speak Mandarin, college graduates with jobs.

Waiting in line on a recent Wednesday, Susan B. Smith said federal aid had helped her family endure the pandemic over the last year. Direct payments, along with three months’ worth of rental assistance, “got us through a lot last winter,” she said. “Every little bit of help, we appreciate it. We just want to make it through, not starve.”

Now, most of that assistance is gone, and food and housing cost more, a reality that has forced Smith and one of her daughters, Tamela Clover, to seek help at the food pantry. Clover, a college graduate who works part time for a social services agency, said her salary had not kept pace with her cost of living: “Everything’s so expensive.”

Biden frequently acknowledges the high inflation is hurting people and has taken several steps to try to mitigate rising costs. He and his aides insist that while the pain is real, last year’s stimulus package has made the country and its most vulnerable people better positioned for any economic troubles ahead.

Administration officials point to a stronger job market, a lower eviction rate and healthier household finances than the nation has typically experienced at this point in a recovery from a recession, which the economy briefly entered early in the pandemic. They say the $350 billion that Congress gave to state, local and tribal governments should help fuel some assistance programs even after federal aid runs out.

The law “reduced significantly the degree of hardship, both over the last year and a half and going forward,” said Gene Sperling, a senior adviser to Biden who has overseen fulfillment of the law.

Last week, Biden signed into law a vast economic package that his administration says will help reduce inflation. It includes tax credits to stoke low-carbon energy, expanded premium supports for Americans who buy health insurance through the federal government and curbs on prescription drug prices for seniors.

But the president was forced to drop his push to extend many of the temporary programs that Democrats approved last year to directly fight hunger and poverty. That included additional food from the Agriculture Department, rental assistance from the Treasury, and supplemental income in the form of direct payments and an expanded child tax credit. An extension of the child credit was included in a bill carrying a much larger portion of Biden’s agenda that the House passed in November, but it did not survive in the Senate. An earlier Biden proposal had also contained $150 billion in affordable-housing programs, which were also jettisoned.

The swift decline into pandemic recession plunged millions of Americans into dire financial straits. In 2020, the Oregon Food Bank served 1.7 million people, Morgan said. That number dipped in 2021 to about 1.2 million.

Now it is rising again, toward what Morgan estimates could be 1.5 million. That would be the food bank’s second-largest caseload for a single year, behind only 2020.

“There’s a very direct correlation between federal assistance, state assistance and a decrease in numbers,” said Kevin Ryan, director of social services at William Temple House, who welcomed Smith, Clover and others to a shaded sitting area where they waited for their trip into the food pantry to begin.

“When that goes away, the numbers go back up.”

When Biden’s team drafted the rescue plan in the early days of his administration, it was trying to give vulnerable Americans, particularly those thrown out of work or at risk of losing their homes, enough assistance to carry them through until the economy returned to some version of normal.

The economic recovery has been faster than was forecast before Democrats approved the $1.9 trillion package, with unemployment hovering near a 50-year low and growth surging last year. “It gave millions of working families a shot they otherwise might not have,” said Brian Deese, director of Biden’s National Economic Council.

But the normalcy has yet to arrive. Inflation has climbed higher, and endured longer, than administration officials thought possible.

Higher prices are making it harder for many Americans to afford food and housing. Adjusted for inflation, average wages have declined since Biden took office. Economic data suggest that many households, including a wide swath of vulnerable Americans, have lost buying power as prices have soared.

Rising mortgage rates, the result of Fed interest rates meant to combat price spikes, have pushed home buying even further out of reach for millions of Americans. The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis estimates that only 23% of Portland residents can now afford to buy a median-priced home in the city, down from 35% in December.

Poverty researchers say the coming months could be worse.

“There’s strong reason to believe that food insufficiency will continue to remain at high levels and perhaps worsen,” said Zachary Parolin, a poverty researcher at Bocconi University in Milan and a senior fellow at Columbia’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy.

Administration officials say the best policies they can pursue for people like Smith are ones that fight inflation, such as actions to untangle supply chains that have pushed up the prices of goods like furniture. The bill Biden signed this month will eventually reduce prescription and electricity costs for many Americans, and it could help lower overall inflation by a small amount in the long term, independent studies suggest.

Smith, 55, is not expecting another round of assistance checks from the federal government and is instead relying on Social Security benefits, along with government and charitable assistance. She cares for three grandchildren, including one with a severe medical condition, and cannot work outside the home because child care would be too costly.

When her turn arrived at William Temple House, Smith carefully pulled her shopping baskets down a small flight of stairs to what resembled a miniature grocery store. “My kids are hungry,” she told Ryan, and she proceeded to stock three red crates with items she knew they would like: potatoes, celery, bacon, Froot Loops, Ritz crackers, bags of potato chips.

“I always try to get my kids snack foods here,” Smith said. “I can’t afford snacks.”

Chinese farmers struggle as scorching drought wilts crops

Associated Press

Chinese farmers struggle as scorching drought wilts crops

Mark Schiefelbein – August 20, 2022

Gan Bingdong uses a hose to water plants near a dying chili pepper plant at his farm in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Gan Bingdong uses a hose to water plants near a dying chili pepper plant at his farm in Longquan village in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Gan Bingdong walks through the basin of a community reservoir near his farm that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water, in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Gan Bingdong walks through the basin of a community reservoir near his farm that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water, in Longquan village in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Gan Bingdong stands in the basin of a community reservoir near his farm that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water, in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
In this aerial photo, a community reservoir that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water is seen in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Olivia Zhang)
In this aerial photo, a community reservoir that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water is seen in Longquan village in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Olivia Zhang)

LONGQUAN, China (AP) — Hundreds of persimmon trees that should be loaded with yellow fruit lie wilted in Gan Bingdong’s greenhouse in southwestern China, adding to mounting farm losses in a scorching summer that is the country’s driest in six decades.

Gan’s farm south of the industrial metropolis of Chongqing lost half its vegetable crop in heat as high as 41 degrees Celsius (106 Fahrenheit) and a drought that has shrunk the giant Yangtze River and wilted crops across central China.

Gan’s surviving eggplants are no bigger than strawberries. A reservoir beside his farm has run dry, forcing him to pump groundwater.

“This year’s high temperatures are very annoying,” Gan said.

Drought conditions across a swath of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday.

The forecast called for high temperatures and no rain for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan provinces to the east of Tibet.

Local authorities were ordered to “use all available water sources” to supply households and livestock, the weather agency said.

The biggest impact is in Sichuan, where factories have been shut down and offices and shopping malls told to turn off air-conditioning after reservoirs to generate hydropower fell to half their normal levels.

The province of 94 million people gets 80% of its electricity from hydropower dams.

Factories that make processor chips for smartphones, auto components, solar panels and other industrial goods were shut down for at least six days through Saturday. Some say output will be depressed while others say supplies to customers are unaffected.

The shutdowns add to challenges for the ruling Communist Party as President Xi Jinping, the country’s most powerful leader in decades, prepares to try to break with tradition and award himself a third five-year term as leader at a meeting in October or November.

Growth in factory output and retail sales weakened in July, setting back China’s economic recovery after Shanghai and other industrial centers were shut down starting in late March to fight virus outbreaks.

The economy grew by just 2.5% over a year earlier in the first half of 2022, less than half the official annual goal of 5.5%.

State-run utilities are shifting power to Sichuan from other provinces. Authorities used fire trucks to deliver water to two dry villages near Chongqing.

In Hubei province, east of Chongqing, 220,000 people needed drinking water, while 6.9 million hectares (17 million acres) of crops were damaged, the provincial government said Saturday. It declared a drought emergency and released disaster aid.

In Sichuan, 47,000 hectares (116,000 acres) of crops have been lost and 433,000 hectares (1.1 million acres) damaged, the provincial disaster committee said Saturday. It said 819,000 people faced a shortage of drinking water.

Authorities in Chongqing say an estimated 1 million people in rural areas will face drinking water shortages, the Shanghai news outlet The Paper reported.

Gan, the farmer south of Chongqing, said he has lost one-third of his persimmon plants.

Farmers in the area usually harvest rice in late August or September but plan to finish at least two weeks early before plants die, according to Gan.

A community reservoir beside Gan’s farm is nearly empty, leaving a pool surrounded by cracked earth. After supply canals ran dry, it sprang a leak and heat accelerated evaporation. Gan is pumping underground water for irrigation.

“If the high temperature comes every year, we will have to find a solution such as to build up nets, daily irrigation or to install a spray system to reduce the loss,” Gan said.

Meanwhile, other areas have suffered deadly flash floods.

Flooding in the northwestern province of Qinghai killed at least 23 people and left eight missing, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing local authorities.

Mudslides and overflowing rivers late Thursday hit six villages in Qinghai’s Datong county, the report said. Some 1,500 people were forced out of their homes.

AP video producer Olivia Zhang contributed.

L.A. County will experience triple the number of hot days by 2053, study says

Los Angeles Times

L.A. County will experience triple the number of hot days by 2053, study says

Noah Goldberg – August 19, 2022

The sun sets between two of the tallest buildings west of the Mississippi, as seen from Whittier, CA., on Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2022. The Wilshire Grand Center, left, is the tallest at 1,100 ft. and the US Bank Tower, right, is the third tallest at 1,018 feet. The According to their website, "the California Independent System Operator (ISO) issued a statewide Flex Alert, a call for voluntary electricity conservation, due to predicted high temperatures pushing up energy demand and tightening available power supplies."
The sun sets over downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday. (Raul Roa / Los Angeles Times)

Los Angeles County will experience triple the number of hot days per year by 2053, according to a new study.

The county, where a typical hot day is just under 94 degrees, gets about seven days that exceed that per year, according to the report released this week by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit, climate-focused research organization based in New York. By 2053, that number will jump to 21, the study found.

Los Angeles County is up there with Del Norte and Orange counties as the areas in California that will see the most severe jump in hot days. The increase will result in freak infrastructure accidents and cost the state more than half a billion dollars in air conditioning consumption.

“The results will be dire,” First Street Chief Executive Matthew Eby said about the rise in severely hot days across the country.

In 2053, California’s Imperial County, is expected to have 116 days in which the temperature exceeds 100 degrees. Riverside County is expected to have 55 days of triple-digit heat — the second highest number for a California county — according to the study.

All areas of California, as well as the rest of the country, will see increased heat over the next 30 years, according to the report. The state will also see increasing numbers of heat waves — three straight days of the county’s average hot day — which are worse on the West Coast.

“The likelihood of a heat wave in California is much higher than the rest of the country,” Eby said.

The First Street study also suggests a steep increase in the number of Americans who will face days where the temperature goes above 125 degrees, including in places like Chicago.

By 2053, more than 100 million Americans will deal with days that hot, whereas just over 8 million currently do, according to the study.

The report refers to the counties that will experience a day over 125 degrees as the “extreme heat belt.”

Meanwhile, California is already enduring a historic drought amplified by global warming.

Earlier this month, Gov. Gavin Newsom released a new plan to adapt to the state’s hotter, drier future by capturing and storing more water, recycling more wastewater and desalinating seawater and salty groundwater.

The governor’s new water-supply strategy, detailed in a 16-page document, lays out a series of actions aimed at preparing the state for an estimated 10% decrease in California’s water supply by 2040 because of higher temperatures and decreased runoff. The plan focuses on accelerating infrastructure projects, boosting conservation and upgrading the state’s water system to keep up with the increasing pace of climate change.

“The hots are getting a lot hotter. The dries are getting a lot drier,” Newsom said. “We have to adapt to that new reality, and we have to change our approach.”

The state plan calls for expanding water storage capacity above and below ground by 4 million acre-feet; expanding groundwater recharge; accelerating wastewater recycling projects; building projects to capture more runoff during storms, and investing in desalination of ocean water and salty groundwater.

The projected loss of 10% of the state’s water supply within two decades translates to losing 6 million to 9 million acre-feet per year on average — more than the volume of Shasta Lake, the state’s largest reservoir, which holds 4.5 million acre-feet.

“Mother Nature is still bountiful,” Newsom said. “But she’s not operating like she did 50 years ago.”

Times staff writer Ian James contributed to this story.

Climate change has doubled the chance of a California megaflood

Yahoo! News

Climate change has doubled the chance of a California megaflood: Study

Ben Adler, Senior Editor – August 16, 2022

California is already known for being vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes, wildfires and even tsunamis, but a new study in the journal Science Advances finds that it is at increased risk of another: a disastrous megaflood that could cause more than $1 trillion in losses and turn low-lying areas into a “vast inland sea.”

The Golden State is currently enduring the worst 20-year drought in at least 1,200 years — an event made more likely due to climate change, as warmer air causes more evaporation. But, the study’s authors note, “Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods.”

Just as increased evaporation causes more frequent and severe droughts, it also causes more extreme rainfall when a storm arrives. The paper finds that climate change has doubled the chances of a dramatic flood in California during the next 40 years, and that the risk will continue to increase if average global temperatures keep rising.

An aerial view of a vast expanse of bare lake, showing a road that used to hug the waterline.
Low water levels at Grant Lake, which is fed by now nearly snowless mountains in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, expose an expanded shoreline on Aug. 11 near Lee Vining, Calif. (David McNew/Getty Images)

The researchers used new high-resolution weather modeling and existing climate models to find how often a long series of storms fueled by atmospheric rivers that have occurred about once a century in recent history would occur, now that global average temperatures have risen 1.1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the Industrial Revolution. What they found was that warmer temperatures have doubled the risk of those conditions, so that what was once a 1-in-100-year flood would now occur every 50 years, on average.

“Climate change has probably already doubled the risk of an extremely severe storm sequence in California, like the one in the study,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who co-authored the study with Xingying Huang, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told NPR. “But each additional degree of warming is going to further increase that risk.”

An atmospheric river is a long, narrow band of heavy moisture. Historically, winter atmospheric rivers have led to large snowfalls in the Sierra Nevada mountains. In a warmer climate, however, atmospheric rivers will be stronger because they hold more moisture. With warmer temperatures, more of the precipitation will fall as rain, causing flooding, instead of snow, which melts gradually.

In recent history, the only example of such a flood is the Great Flood of 1862. In December 1861, nearly 15 feet of snow fell in the Sierra Nevada mountain range, and subsequent atmospheric rivers dumped rain for 43 days after that, with the water pooling in valleys. This meant that in the winter of 1862, parts of California were submerged in up to 30 feet of water for weeks, according to CNN. The state capital in Sacramento, “was under 10 feet of debris-filled water for months.”

A dozen flat boats, some propelled by poles, each carrying up to four passengers and in some cases, small dogs, float on a city street in an engraving titled: K. Street, From the Levee. Inundation of the State Capitol, City of Sacrament, 1862, Published by A. Rosenfield, San Francisco.
A lithograph showing K Street in the city of Sacramento, Calif., during the Great Flood of 1862. (A. Rosenfield/WikiCommons)

Buildings were destroyed, including one out of every eight homes, and 4,000 people died. The state lost one-quarter of its economy that year.

No flood that large has happened since then, but river sediment deposits show that in the pre-climate change era, such floods usually happened every 100 to 200 years.

“We find that climate change has already increased the risk of a [1862-like] megaflood scenario in California, but that future climate warming will likely bring about even sharper risk increases,” the study’s authors write.

“It’s a question of when rather than if [the megaflood] occurs,” Swain told CNN.

But the effects would be far worse, now that California has grown to 39 million residents, with an economy that, if it were a country, would be the world’s fifth-largest.

According to the researchers’ modeling, Stockton, Fresno and Los Angeles would be under water and damages could be upward of $1 trillion, potentially the most expensive disaster in world history. Interstate highways in California, such as I-5 and I-80, would probably be shut down for weeks.

A kayak paddles down a flooded street past a pickup truck whose wheels are half-submerged.
A man kayaks down a flooded street in the town of Guerneville, Calif., on Feb. 28, 2019, thanks to floodwaters from the Russian River nearby. (Josh Edelson/AP)

“Every major population center in California would get hit at once — probably parts of Nevada and other adjacent states, too,” Swain said in a UCLA press release.

The increased risk of extreme rainfall due to climate change is not limited to California or the West Coast. The United States recently experienced three extreme rainfalls of the kind that were supposed to only occur once in every 1,000 years: southern Illinois received 12 inches of rain in 12 hours, the St. Louis area 6 to 10 inches of rain in just seven hours, and parts of eastern Kentucky were drenched by 14 inches of rain in two days.

The California Department of Water Resources supported the study with data and funding, as part of an effort to understand and prepare for extreme weather risks exacerbated by climate change. Further research — which will include partnering with state and federal emergency management agencies — will try to determine where the flooding would be worst and how it could be mitigated.

“Modeling extreme weather behavior is crucial to helping all communities understand flood risk even during periods of drought like the one we’re experiencing right now,” Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources, said in a statement.

Arizona loses one-fifth of its Colorado River allocation under new federal drought plan

AZ Central – The Arizona Republic

Arizona loses one-fifth of its Colorado River allocation under new federal drought plan

Debra Utacia Krol, Arizona Republic – August 16, 2022

The federal government will impose deeper cuts on the drought-stricken Colorado River, officials said on Tuesday, reducing water deliveries to Arizona by one-fifth starting in January.

The Bureau of Reclamation announced what it called “urgent action” as water levels in the river’s two largest reservoirs continue to drop. Under the steps outlined Tuesday, Arizona will lose 592,000 acre-feet of its river allocation in 2023, which represents 21% of its usual delivery. That’s an increase of 80,000 acre-feet from the 2022 cuts.

The additional cuts will come from the non-Indian agricultural water allocations, which includes farmers and some tribes, said Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke.

Nevada will give up 25,000 acre-feet, about 8% of its allocation, and Mexico’s share will be cut by 104,000 acre-feet, or 7% of its allocation. California will not lose any of its share under the blueprint released Tuesday.

These moves are meant to protect two major dams from structural damage and the ability to generate electric power.

Currently, Lake Mead holds just over 25% capacity and Lake Powell just less than 25%.

“Prolonged drought is one of the most profound issues facing the U.S. today,” said Tommy Beaudreau, assistant Interior secretary.

The Southwest has endured unrelenting drought for more than 20 years, an arid stretch that some scientists say is the worst in 1,200 years.

5 takeaways: What to know about the Colorado River drought plan

The Bureau of Reclamation also said it would take immediate action to address the continuing shortfalls in the system. Some of those include reducing Glen Canyon Dam releases to below 7 million acre-feet per year to protect critical infrastructure; investing in conservation and voluntary agreements; and looking closely at Lake Mead operations to prevent the reservoir from falling to critically low levels.

Federal officials said the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden on Tuesday, allocates $4 billion to the Bureau of Reclamation for drought relief and $12.5 million for emergency drought funding for tribes.

The measure also allocates $550 million for water programs in disadvantaged communities. That’s in addition to $8.3 billion the bureau received to address drought and build water systems under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act.

Interior Department officials said they would continue dialogue with the 30 federally recognized tribes in the basin and with Mexico as well as with the seven basin states to jointly deal with the long-term shortages.

Arizona: Proposed cuts are ‘unacceptable’
This chart shows the key water levels in Lake Mead, which is used to determine water deliveries for Arizona, Nevada and California.
This chart shows the key water levels in Lake Mead, which is used to determine water deliveries for Arizona, Nevada and California.

Arizona’s water managers suggested the plan was not enough and put too much of the burden on the Central Arizona Project, despite calls from the federal government to reduce water consumption across the river basin.

“It is unacceptable for Arizona to continue to carry a disproportionate burden of reductions for the benefit of others who have not contributed,” read a statement by Buschatzke and Ted Cooke, general manager of the CAP.

They said a proposal put forth by Arizona was rejected.

Federal officials acknowledged the urgency of the situation.

U.S. House: Bills passed to address drought on the Colorado River, wildfire recovery

“Our reservoirs are declining rapidly,” said Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary of the Interior Department for water and science.

She said all users have the responsibility to ensure the water is used responsibly. Trujillo said if new funding is authorized without prompt actions now, the Colorado River and the 40 million people who depend on it will face an uncertain future.

Arizona already has taken significant cuts to its annual take from the river, but it hasn’t been enough to keep Lake Mead from dropping further.

Under a set of guidelines negotiated between the states and the Bureau of Reclamation, the Central Arizona Project reduced its pumping by 512,000 acre-feet this year after the bureau officially declared a shortage base on reservoir projections released a year ago.

A bathtub ring of light minerals shows the high water line of Lake Mead near water intakes on the Arizona side of Hoover Dam at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area on June 26, 2022, near Boulder City, Nevada. The reservoir is now below 30% of capacity, Its level has dropped 170 feet since reaching a high-water mark in 1983.
A bathtub ring of light minerals shows the high water line of Lake Mead near water intakes on the Arizona side of Hoover Dam at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area on June 26, 2022, near Boulder City, Nevada. The reservoir is now below 30% of capacity, Its level has dropped 170 feet since reaching a high-water mark in 1983.

That would be enough to supply about 1.5 million Arizona households if it went exclusively to municipal uses.

The next tier, triggered when Lake Mead is projected to drop below elevation 1,050 feet above sea level, requires another 80,000 acre-feet from Arizona under guidelines adopted in 2007.

With a previously enacted Drought Contingency Plan and an additional emergency commitment that Arizona made with California and Nevada last winter, the state’s total reductions in 2022 total about 800,000 acre-feet, or more than a quarter of the state’s Colorado River allocation, according to CAP.

When disappointing runoff from Rocky Mountain snowpack started flowing toward reservoirs this spring and early summer, the Bureau of Reclamation said it would require more, at least 2 million and maybe 4 million acre-feet from all users in the watershed. That set off a scramble among Arizona and its neighbors to find more water.

Environment: Will Colorado River shortages limit water use? Arizona cities seek ‘culture change’ first

Sharon Megdal, director of the University of Arizona’s Water Resources Research Center, said the numbers don’t work if all of the states aren’t involved.

“Even if CAP and the cities were totally cut off, that wouldn’t add up to 4 million acre-feet,” she said. Cutting water use should be discussed and agreed to by all sectors and states, including the Upper Basin. “Nobody will come out of this unscathed.”

Residential water users are likely to escape the effects because most cities deliver water from a mix of sources. Phoenix implemented its drought management plan June 6 when it issued a Stage 1 water alert, asking residents to voluntarily conserve water use. Although the Colorado River provides about 40% of the city’s water, residential water users are unlikely to experience any cuts at this time.

But one major water stakeholder said Tuesday it had reassessed its position. The Gila River Indian Community cited a lack of progress among the states in its decision to stop contributing water to help shore up Lake Mead’s water levels.

GRIC and the Colorado River Indian Tribes had voluntarily left part of their water allocations in Lake Mead as part of a plan by states and water districts to conserve 500,000 acre-feet. The contributions by the two tribes enabled Arizona to hold up its end of the effort.

Gila River Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis said Tuesday the tribe would go another direction.

“The community has been shocked and disappointed to see the complete lack of progress in reaching the kind of cooperative basin-wide plan necessary to save the Colorado River system,” Lewis said. The tribe reevaluated its strategy and will instead return to storing water underground.

The Colorado River Indian Tribes contributed more than 200,000 acre-feet and fallowed farmland. The tribe said its actions raised Lake Mead’s level by 3 feet. The 4,270-member tribe plans to up its contribution in 2023 and to develop more ways to use less water, according to a statement.

“We recognize that the decades-long drought has reduced the water availability for all of us in the basin,” said CRIT Chairwoman Amelia Flores. “Our ancestors lived through droughts and floods before the settlers arrived and built the dams on the Colorado River.  We are a resilient people at CRIT and bring this attitude to the way we live and to our efforts to protect the life of the river that is our namesake.”

Planners want more certainty

The Imperial Irrigation District, which holds 2.6 million acre-feet of Colorado River rights, issued a statement seeking more details from federal officials in conservation and reservoir operations at Lake Mead.

The Colorado River is the Imperial Valley’s only water source, according to the district. Its 116,000 acres of irrigated lands produce much of the nation’s vegetables during the winter months. One of the district’s big concerns is keeping the nearby Salton Sea from declining further while protecting their farms.

​​“By adopting this plan, we’re providing a means for Imperial Valley growers to be able to continue their work to meet the nation’s food supply needs, within IID’s available water supply, while supporting the river,” said James C. Hanks, the district’s board president.

The two major Arizona water agencies argued that other states must do their part in preserving the river.

“We can’t do this alone without California,” said Buschatzke. He said the Upper Basin plan is in its early stages with few details.

The seven basin states and tribes are negotiating new water management guidelines to replace the current guidelines, which expire at the end of 2025.

Cooke, the CAP general manager, said any discussion among basin states to take further reductions should take into account current reductions.

“We’re taking an almost 600,000 acre-feet cut, Nevada is losing 25,000 acre-feet and Mexico is taking a 100,000 acre-feet cut, but California is taking none,” he said. “We’re willing to do our part, but we can’t continue to be the ones who do the most.”

The two state officials said they want to see more long-term planning. They want planners looking at 2024 and beyond. Cooke said he hopes the 2023 plan in progress can have more durable elements so they don’t have to start at zero in subsequent years.

Buschatzke gave Reclamation a grade of “incomplete” in its plans. Then-Interior Secretary Gale Norton had to give the states a nudge, a “kick in the pants,” to complete a plan in the mid-2000s, he said.

Nevada: Take concrete steps

U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., agreed with state water officials.

“As the West continues experiencing historic drought, Arizona has led the way identifying short and long term solutions while shouldering a disproportionate share of this crisis,” she said.

Sinema created a water advisory council earlier this month to discuss how to expend the $4 billion earmarked for drought and water programs.

U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., said in a letter to Interior Secretary Deb Haaland that the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law also contained funding to support voluntary reductions.

Megdal, of the UA, said that the new funding is welcome; however, she said, nothing she learned about the new measures means the pressure is off. “We all need to work together.”

The Southern Nevada Water Authority, which oversees water for metropolitan Las Vegas, echoed the comments made by Arizona officials.

“The Colorado River cannot provide enough water for the current level of use,” said John Entsminger, the authority’s general manager. “The magnitude of the problem is so large that every single water user in every single sector must contribute solutions to this problem regardless of the priority system.”

Entsminger suggested several actions, including eliminating wasteful and antiquated water use, and eliminating lawns. In June 2021, Nevada passed legislation that prohibits non-functional grass irrigated by Colorado River water. That covers about one-third of southern Nevada lawns.

U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Ariz., also expressed disappointment that the Interior Department had fallen short in its announcement.

“The federal government has failed to offer a plan that requires all states to make the cuts necessary to save the Colorado from system collapse,” Stanton said. “Today’s announcement merely kicks the can down the road and risks turning this crisis into catastrophe.”

Kelly also called for decisive action to develop long-term solutions to mitigating drought on the Colorado River, saying this “must be an urgent priority for the Department.”

One water activist called out a “vague” plan and asked what steps the bureau would take next if the seven basin states can’t or don’t reduce water usage.

“If you were hoping for security and knowing exactly what’s going to happen, Reclamation’s ‘plan’ doesn’t change much of anything,” said Gary Wockner, director of the environmental group Save the Colorado.

The group also proposed a possible solution to the issue, one that environmentalists have discussed for years: “We encourage Reclamation to focus quickly on how to drain Lake Powell and bypass Glen Canyon Dam because it is the weight that is driving this crisis and dragging the whole system down.”

Republic reporter Brandon Loomis contributed to this article.

Debra Krol reports on Indigenous communities at the confluence of climate, culture and commerce in Arizona and the Intermountain West.

Coverage of Indigenous issues at the intersection of climate, culture and commerce is supported by the Catena Foundation.

Much of the US Will Be an ‘Extreme Heat Belt’ by the 2050’s

Bloomberg

Much of the US Will Be an ‘Extreme Heat Belt’ by the 2050’s

Leslie Kaufman – August 14, 2022

(Bloomberg) –

So you think it’s hot out there now? Consider the summer of 2053. That’s what researchers at First Street Foundation, a New York nonprofit that studies climate risk, have done in a report published today.

They predict that in three decades, more than 100 million Americans will live in an “extreme heat belt” where at least one day a year, the heat index will exceed 125° Fahrenheit (52° Celsius) — the top level of the National Weather Service’s heat index, or the extreme danger level. (The index combines temperature and humidity to arrive at how it feels when you go outside.)

Along with the report, First Street has released a free web tool that lets users search US addresses to determine their heat risk.

The future heat belt is a huge swath of the country that includes the Southeast and the area just west of the Appalachian Mountains, stretching from Texas and Louisiana all the way up through Missouri and Iowa to the Wisconsin border. This is not the part of the nation we most associate with heat, but since it is inland there are “no coastal influences to mitigate extreme temperatures,” and many communities “are not acclimated to warmer weather relative to their normal climate,” the report states.

The sharpest heat increase, however, will be felt in Miami-Dade County, Florida, where the hottest days now, those reaching 103°F, will increase in frequency from 7 days a year to 34 by 2053.

The findings are part of the sixth report by First Street to help Americans picture how warming will impact them at home. Previous reports looked at fire and floods, and the foundation made available fire and flood risk scores for every property in the contiguous US on its website.

Unlike those menaces, heat does not affect the survival of homes themselves and related insurance costs, so it does not have the same immediate threat to property value. But Matthew Eby, founder and chief executive of First Street, says he felt it was urgent to take on nonetheless.

“Increasing temperatures are broadly discussed in yearly averages, but the focus should be on the extension of the extreme tail events expected in a given year,” he said in a statement. In other words, when people discuss climate change they often use yearly averages, which can inadvertently blunt the severity of what is coming. Even relatively small increases in global yearly averages will include far more common extreme heat events.

According to the report, across the country, on average, peak temperatures now on the hottest 7 days per year will be reached 18 days a year in most localities.

While you might not lose your home to extreme heat, it certainly has other risks. The recent heat wave in the Pacific Northwest sent almost 1,000 people to the hospital. Power grids experience blackouts, knocking out air conditioning. People can experience exhaustion and dehydration as temperatures soar and can die from heatstroke. Bridges and roads buckle.

Temperatures are notoriously difficult to predict accurately even a few days out, much less 30 years. However, there are differences between climatology and meteorology. First Street uses climatology modeling that shows rising global temperatures based on the current level of greenhouse gas emissions to predict warming trends. Then it layers on address-specific information, such as how much tree canopy cover is nearby, or whether a home in an urban area is surrounded by impervious surfaces, like parking lots, that absorb and retain heat.

The peer-reviewed model also takes into account variables like proximity to a large body of water, which might moderate temperatures, and whether the home is high in the mountains, which is cooler. Some of these variables will change over time, but for the purposes of this exercise, First Street keeps them stable.

Jeremy Porter, the foundation’s lead researcher, says there is far less variation house to house for extreme heat than for fire or flood. Yet the scoring offers very practical financial information. Because it looks at the square footage of a house and state electricity prices, the scoring tool can estimate how much an individual home’s energy bills can be expected to rise if the owner has air conditioning.

Today we are complaining about inflation, but even with the slew of rebates in the Inflation Reduction Act, some Americans may look back at the cooling costs from the summer of 2022 as a bargain.

Deadline looms for drought-stricken states to cut water use

Associated Press

Deadline looms for drought-stricken states to cut water use

Sam Metz and Felicia Fonseca – August 14, 2022

FILE - Visitors view the dramatic bend in the Colorado River at the popular Horseshoe Bend in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, in Page, Ariz., on Sept. 9, 2011. Some 40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming draw from the Colorado River and its tributaries. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)
Visitors view the dramatic bend in the Colorado River at the popular Horseshoe Bend in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, in Page, Ariz., on Sept. 9, 2011. Some 40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming draw from the Colorado River and its tributaries. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
FILE - Farmer John Hawk looks over his land as his seed onion fields are watered in Holtville, Calif., Sept. 3, 2002. For the seven states that rely on the Colorado River that carries snowmelt from the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California, that means a future with increasingly less water for farms and cities although climate scientists say it's hard to predict how much less. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon, File)
Farmer John Hawk looks over his land as his seed onion fields are watered in Holtville, Calif., Sept. 3, 2002. For the seven states that rely on the Colorado River that carries snowmelt from the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California, that means a future with increasingly less water for farms and cities although climate scientists say it’s hard to predict how much less. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
FILE - A boat cruises along Lake Powell near Page, Ariz., on July 31, 2021. Seven states in the U.S. West are facing a deadline from the federal government to come up with a plan to use substantially less Colorado River water in 2023. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. Prolonged drought, climate change and overuse are jeopardizing the water supply that more than 40 million people rely on. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)
A boat cruises along Lake Powell near Page, Ariz., on July 31, 2021. Seven states in the U.S. West are facing a deadline from the federal government to come up with a plan to use substantially less Colorado River water in 2023. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. Prolonged drought, climate change and overuse are jeopardizing the water supply that more than 40 million people rely on. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
FILE - A home with a swimming pool abuts the desert on the edge of the Las Vegas valley, Wednesday, July 20, 2022, in Henderson, Nev. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
A home with a swimming pool abuts the desert on the edge of the Las Vegas valley, Wednesday, July 20, 2022, in Henderson, Nev. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
FILE - A formerly sunken boat sits upright into the air with its stern stuck in the mud along the shoreline of Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Friday, June 10, 2022, near Boulder City, Nev. Lake Mead water has dropped to levels it hasn't been since the lake initially filled over 80 years earlier. Prolonged drought, climate change and overuse are jeopardizing the water supply that more than 40 million people rely on. States are acknowledging that painful cuts are needed, but also stubbornly clinging to the water they were allocated a century ago. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
A formerly sunken boat sits upright into the air with its stern stuck in the mud along the shoreline of Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Friday, June 10, 2022, near Boulder City, Nev. Lake Mead water has dropped to levels it hasn’t been since the lake initially filled over 80 years earlier. Prolonged drought, climate change and overuse are jeopardizing the water supply that more than 40 million people rely on. States are acknowledging that painful cuts are needed, but also stubbornly clinging to the water they were allocated a century ago. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
FILE - The Colorado River flows at Horseshoe Bend in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Wednesday, June 8, 2022, in Page, Ariz. Seven states in the U.S. West are facing a deadline from the federal government to come up with a plan to use substantially less Colorado River water in 2023. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/Brittany Peterson, File)
The Colorado River flows at Horseshoe Bend in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Wednesday, June 8, 2022, in Page, Ariz. Seven states in the U.S. West are facing a deadline from the federal government to come up with a plan to use substantially less Colorado River water in 2023. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/Brittany Peterson, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
FILE - An aerial view of Lake Powell on the Colorado River along the Arizona-Utah border on Sept. 11, 2019. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/John Antczak, FIle )
An aerial view of Lake Powell on the Colorado River along the Arizona-Utah border on Sept. 11, 2019. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/John Antczak, FIle )
ASSOCIATED PRESS

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Banks along parts of the Colorado River where water once streamed are now just caked mud and rock as climate change makes the Western U.S. hotter and drier.

More than two decades of drought have done little to deter the region from diverting more water than flows through it, depleting key reservoirs to levels that now jeopardize water delivery and hydropower production.

Cities and farms in seven U.S. states are bracing for cuts this week as officials stare down a deadline to propose unprecedented reductions to their use of the water, setting up what’s expected to be the most consequential week for Colorado River policy in years.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in June told the states — Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — to figure out how to use at least 15% less water next year, or have restrictions imposed on them. On top of that, the bureau is expected to publish hydrology projections that will trigger additional cuts already agreed to.

“The challenges we are seeing today are unlike anything we have seen in our history,” Camille Touton, the bureau’s commissioner, said in a U.S. Senate hearing that month.

Tensions over the extent of the cuts and how to spread them equitably have flared, with states pointing fingers and stubbornly clinging to their water rights despite the looming crisis.

“It’s not fun sitting around a table figuring out who is going to sacrifice and how much,” said Bill Hasencamp, the Colorado River resources manager at Metropolitan Water District, which provides water to most of Southern California.

Representatives from the seven states convened in Denver last week for eleventh-hour negotiations behind closed doors. Officials party to discussions said the most likely targets for cuts are farmers in Arizona and California. Agricultural districts in those states are asking to be paid generously to shoulder that burden.

But the tentative agreements fall short of what the Bureau of Reclamation has demanded and state officials say they hope for more time to negotiate details.

The Colorado River cascades down from the Rocky Mountains into the arid deserts of the Southwest. It’s the primary water supply for 40 million people. About 70% of its water goes toward irrigation, sustaining a $15 billion-a-year agricultural industry that supplies 90% of the United States’ winter vegetables.

The river is divided among Mexico and the seven U.S. states under a series of agreements that date back a century, to a time when more water flowed through the river. But climate change has transformed the river’s hydrology, providing less snowmelt and causing hotter temperatures and more evaporation. As it’s yielded less water, the states have agreed to cuts tied to the levels of reservoirs that store river water.

Last year, federal officials for the first time declared a water shortage, triggering cuts to Nevada, Arizona and Mexico’s share of the river to help prevent the two largest reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead — from dropping low enough to threaten hydropower production and stop water from flowing through their dams.

The proposals for supplemental cuts due this week have inflamed disagreement between upper basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — and lower basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — over how to spread the pain. The lower basin states use most of the water and have thus far shouldered most of the cuts. The upper basin states have historically not used their full allocations but want to maintain their water rights to plan for population growth.

Gene Shawcroft, the chairman of Utah’s Colorado River Authority, believes the lower basin states should take most of the cuts because they use most of the water and their full allocations.

He said it was his job to protect Utah’s allocation for growth projected for decades ahead: “The direction we’ve been given as water purveyors is to make sure we have water for the future.”

In a letter last month, representatives from the upper basin states proposed a five-point conservation plan that they said would save water but argued most of the cuts needed to come from the lower basin. The plan didn’t commit to any numbers.

“The focus is getting the tools in place and working with water users to get as much as we can rather than projecting a water number,” Chuck Cullom, the executive director of the Upper Colorado River Commission, told The Associated Press.

That position, however, is unsatisfactory to many in lower basin states already facing cuts.

“It’s going to come to a head particularly if the upper basin states continue their negotiating position, saying, ‘We’re not making any cuts,’” said Bruce Babbitt, who served as Interior secretary from 2003-2011.

Lower basin states have yet to go public with plans to contribute, but officials said last week that they had a tentative proposal to reduce consumption that fell slightly short of the federal government’s request to cut 2 to 4 million acre-feet.

An acre-foot of water is enough to serve 2-3 households annually.

Hasencamp, the Metropolitan Water District’s Colorado River resource manager, said all the districts in the state that draw from the river had agreed to contribute water or money to the plan, pending approval by their respective boards. Water districts, in particular the Imperial Irrigation District, have been adamant that any voluntary cut does not curtail their high priority water rights.

Southern California cities likely will be putting up money that could fund fallowing farmland in places like Imperial County and water managers are considering leaving water they’ve stored in Lake Mead as part of their contribution.

Arizona will likely be hit hard with reductions. The state has in the past few years shouldered much of the cuts and with its growing population and robust agricultural industry, has less wiggle room than its neighbors to take on more, said Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke. Some tribes in Arizona have also contributed to propping up Lake Mead in the past, and could play an outsized role in any new proposal.

Irrigators around Yuma, Arizona, have proposed taking 925,000 acre-feet less of Colorado River water in 2023 and leaving it in Lake Mead if they’re paid $1.4 billion, or $1,500 per acre-foot. The cost is far above the going rate, but irrigators defended their proposal as fair considering the cost to grow crops and get them to market.

Wade Noble, the coordinator for a coalition that represents Yuma water rights holders, said it was the only proposal put forth publicly that includes actual cuts, rather than theoretical cuts to what users are allocated on paper.

Some of the compensation-for-conservation funds could come from a $4 billion drought earmark in the Inflation Reduction Act under consideration in Washington, U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona told the AP.

Sinema acknowledged paying farmers to conserve wasn’t a long-term solution: “In the short-term, however, in order to meet our day-to-day needs and year-to-year needs, ensuring that we’re creating financial incentives for non-use will help us get through,” she said.

Babbitt, too, said money in the legislation will not “miraculously solve the problem” and prices for water must be reasonable to avoid gouging because most water users will take a hit.

“There’s no way that these cuts can all be paid for at a premium price for years and years,” he said.

Fonseca reported from Flagstaff, Arizona. Associated Press reporter Kathleen Ronayne contributed from Sacramento, California.

A disastrous ‘megaflood’ flood in sunny and dry California? It’s happened before

USA Today

A disastrous ‘megaflood’ flood in sunny and dry California? It’s happened before

Mike Snider, USA TODAY – August 14, 2022

Grayscale lithograph of K Street in the city of Sacramento, California — during the Great Flood of 1862. The flood affected the Western United States, from Oregon through California, and Idaho through New Mexico.
Grayscale lithograph of K Street in the city of Sacramento, California — during the Great Flood of 1862. The flood affected the Western United States, from Oregon through California, and Idaho through New Mexico.

A new study raises concerns about climate change-fueled floods dropping massive amounts of water on drought-plagued California – an unlikely sounding scenario that has actually happened before.

While intense droughts, wildfires and earthquakes are typically the main concern across the West, the study released Friday warned of another crisis looming in California: “Megafloods.” It notes climate change is increasing the risk of floods that could submerge cities and displace millions of people across the state. It says an extreme monthlong storm could bring feet of rain – in some places, more than 100 inches – to hundreds of miles of California.

While the scenario might sound like something out of a movie, it’s happened before.

California has experienced severe floods throughout the 20th Century, including in 1969, 1986, and 1997. But a flood from farther in the past – the Great Flood of 1862 – is being eyed by researchers as the threat to California grows by the day.

Though it occurred 160 years ago, the flood – deemed a “megastorm” for its historical rainfall covering huge swaths of the state – illustrates that the threat is not merely theoretical.

In fact, the UCLA researchers studying “megafloods” say such storms typically happen every 100-200 years.

Researchers are sounding the alarm because flood of that scale today would have far more devastating impacts in a state that is now the nation’s most populous.

And the Great Flood of 1862 was also preceded by drought.

How bad was the Great Flood of 1862?

Intense rainstorms pummeled central California “virtually unabated” from Christmas Eve 1861 until January 1862, Scientific American chronicled in a 2013 story on “The Coming Megastorms.”

The flow of water created “a huge inland sea …  a region at least 300 miles long,” leaving Central and southern California underwater for up to six months, the magazine said. Floodwaters stretched as wide as 60 miles across, wrote UCLA researchers in their recent flood risk study.

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“Thousands of farms are entirely under water – cattle starving and drowning,” wrote scientist William Brewer (author of “Up and Down California in 1860-1864”) in a letter to his brother, cited by Scientific American. “All the roads in the middle of the state are impassable; so all mails are cut off. The telegraph also does not work clear through. In the Sacramento Valley for some distance the tops of the poles are under water.”

An estimated 4,000 people died and one-third of all property in the state was destroyed, including one-fourth of its 800,000 cattle, which either drowned or starved, wrote the SFGate news site in a retrospective earlier this year.

The Great Flood of 1862 would be much worse if it happened today

The region that was underwater in 1862 is now home to many more people than it was then — it’s home to some of California’s fastest-growing cities including Bakersfield and Sacramento.

Back then, the state’s population was about 500,000, but today it’s nearly 40 million. “Were a similar event to happen again, parts of cities such as Sacramento, Stockton, Fresno and Los Angeles would be under water even with today’s extensive collection of reservoirs, levees and bypasses,” researchers who worked on the flood-risk study released Friday said in a press release.

The resulting disaster would cause an estimated $1 trillion in damage, the biggest disaster in world history, they say.

And the effects would go beyond central and southern California, said Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist and the study’s co-author. “Every major population center in California would get hit at once – probably parts of Nevada and other adjacent states, too,” he said.

Major highways such as Interstate 5, which runs along the Pacific coast from Canada to Mexico, and I-80, which dissects California through San Francisco and Sacramento, would likely be shut down for weeks or months, he said.

The ripple effects would impact global economics and supply chains.

Lightning strikes east of the eastern front of the McKinney Fire, in the Klamath National Forest near Yreka, Calif. on Aug, 2, 2022.
Lightning strikes east of the eastern front of the McKinney Fire, in the Klamath National Forest near Yreka, Calif. on Aug, 2, 2022.
What causes megafloods?

Atmospheric rivers are long water vapor streams formed about a mile above Earth. They can “carry as much water as 10 to 15 Mississippi Rivers from the tropics and across the middle latitudes,” wrote Michael Dettinger, research hydrologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, and Lynn Ingram, a University of California, Berkeley, professor of earth and planetary science, in Scientific American.

When one comes across the Pacific Ocean and hits the Sierra Nevada, “it is forced up, cools off and condenses into vast quantities of precipitation,” they wrote.

Warming temperatures are making extreme storms more likely – with more runoff, researchers say. In a 2018 study, Swain estimated there was a 50-50 chance of a megaflood the size of the Great Flood of 1862 happening again by 2060, Popular Science reported. “It would essentially inundate land that is now home to millions of people,” he said then.

The new research suggests climate change has already doubled the likelihood of extreme storms and each additional degree of global warming increases the likelihood of a megaflood.

Research is continuing on potential flood effects and how to prepare for the them. Keeping the issue alive in the mind of Californians is important because drought, wildfires and earthquakes get all the attention, Swain said.

“There is potential for bad wildfires every year in California, but a lot of years go by when there’s no major flood news,” he said. “People forget about it.”