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PCOS symptoms are still difficult for doctors to diagnose and treat. Here’s why

NBC News

PCOS symptoms are still difficult for doctors to diagnose and treat. Here’s why

Caroline Hopkins – March 31, 2024

Every morning, Jeni Gutke swallows 12 pills. In the evening, she takes 15 more, then another before bed. She also takes an injectable medication once weekly, and two other medications as needed.

Gutke, of Joliet, Illinois, has polycystic ovary syndrome, or PCOS, and the medications and supplements help the 45-year-old cope with migraines, high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, anxiety and depression that come with the complex hormonal condition.

Not one of Gutke’s medications are technically “PCOS drugs.”

The Food and Drug Administration has not approved a medication specifically for PCOS, which is often linked to infertility, irregular or missed periods, weight problems, and other debilitating symptoms. Gutke’s array of medications is typical of how many of the estimated 5 million women in the U.S. diagnosed with PCOS deal with it.

“It’s such a vast syndrome that affects everything from your head to your toes,” she said. She was diagnosed with endometrial cancer — another risk linked to PCOS — at age 37.

After nearly a century of disagreements over what, exactly, defines the condition, as well as a lack of research, PCOS is still poorly understood. The symptoms vary so widely that any single drug would be unlikely to help all patients, said Dr. Heather Huddleston, a reproductive endocrinologist at the University of California, San Francisco and director of UCSF’s PCOS Clinic.

Women with PCOS and the doctors who care for them say they want better options — treatments for the condition’s root causes rather than bandages for individual symptoms. Even as calls for better treatments grow, the lack of investment in PCOS research has limited doctors’ ability to help their patients.

“It gets very messy to try to identify one treatment that’s going to work for everybody,” Huddleston said.

Many women with the condition end up taking off-label prescriptions — meaning drugs technically approved for other conditions, like diabetes or obesity — to help PCOS-related symptoms. Navigating insurance coverage for off-label prescriptions can be challenging.

“There’s no magic pill,” said Tallene Hacatoryan, 31, a registered dietician from Orange County, California. “There are too many components for there to be a one-size-fits-all treatment.”

portrait weights exercise happy smile (Courtesy Tallene Hacatoryan)

Hacatoryan was diagnosed with PCOS at age 18 and now works as a diet and lifestyle coach for women with PCOS.

Although research is murky when it comes to the best diet for women with PCOS, the most up-to-date international guidelines recommend exercise and a healthy diet. There’s no evidence that any particular diet improves symptoms, although some women have found lifestyle coaching helpful.

Insufficient funding for research

Among the reported 315 medical conditions that receive federal support from the National Institutes of Health, PCOS ranks near the bottom, with an estimated $10 million earmarked for research in 2024. Until 2022, PCOS was so underfunded that it wasn’t included as a line item in the NIH list. And the condition is not explicitly included in the $100 million the Department of Health and Human Services announced recently to research neglected areas of women’s health. Neither is PCOS mentioned in President Joe Biden’s recent executive order to advance women’s health, which includes $200 million for NIH research grants, or the White House’s calls for Congress to allocate $12 billion to fund women’s health research.

A spokesperson at the NIH said that it’s too early to know which women’s health conditions will receive funding under the new initiative.

“Given how common PCOS is, the amount of funding it’s gotten is proportionately extremely small,” Huddleston said.

Government funding is just one part of the total research budget for a given disease. While it’s tough to pin down a dollar figure for private industry spending, experts say the lack of FDA-approved PCOS treatments reflects a lack of investment from drugmakers, too.

Developing PCOS treatments requires a better understanding of the condition. This, in turn, requires far more research tracking thousands of women over many years, which can be extremely expensive, experts say.

However, there are some promising signs.

Although research is early and only in a few dozen women, there are a handful of small drug companies studying possible PCOS treatments. A Menlo Park, California-based company called May Health, for instance, is developing a one-time surgical procedure it thinks could help with PCOS. Spruce Bio, a San Francisco biotech firm, is running a small clinical trial with a drug called tildacerfont for PCOS. It is not clear yet if the oral drug works. President and CFO Samir Gharib said larger clinical trials will depend on the company’s ability to “secure additional financing” or partner with another drug company.

The FDA recently attended a meeting with advocacy group PCOS Challenge where women shared their experiences with the agency’s scientists and drug companies. No PCOS drug trials were announced after the meeting, but the FDA’s interest shows a growing push for improved treatment, said William Patterson, a spokesperson for PCOS Challenge.

No known cure for PCOS

Doctors recommend hormonal contraceptives — most commonly the birth control pill — to regulate heavy, irregular periods;, acne;, and unwanted hair growth. Others say taking the pill just masks, rather than treats, their PCOS symptoms and the symptoms return as soon as they stop taking it.

“PCOS is unfortunately not curable, so treatment is about managing its symptoms,” said Dr. Jessica Chan, a reproductive endocrinologist at Cedars-Sinai. Chan said birth control can be a good option for some, but not all, of her PCOS patients.

For women with PCOS whose main concerns are insulin resistance or stubborn weight gain, Chan often prescribes off-label diabetes medications like metformin.

Some doctors who treat PCOS, including OB-GYNs or endocrinologists, have also begun prescribing GLP-1 agonists like Ozempic and Wegovy, which have shown promise for some women with PCOS, although studies have been small and early -stage.

Novo Nordisk, the company that makes Ozempic and Wegovy, said it has no plans as of now to seek FDA approval for PCOS. Still, the company mentions PCOS on its Truth About Weight website, part of its marketing campaign for Wegovy

Causes and symptoms of PCOS

“We don’t know the initial spark leading to PCOS or where it arises from,” Chan said.

PCOS affects an estimated 6% to 12% of reproductive-age women in the U.S. The real prevalence is likely higher since an estimated 70% of cases go undetected.

Experts generally agree that PCOS, at its core, is a hormone-related condition. Women with PCOS have higher levels of androgen hormones, which can cause a range of symptoms, including:

Missing, irregular, or heavy periods
Acne
Excess hair growth on the face or body
Thinning or balding scalp hair

According to endocrinologist Dr. Andrea Dunaif, some doctors have been pushing to separate PCOS into two different diagnoses: one having more to do with the reproductive cycle and fertility issues and another having more to do with metabolism, high body weight, and diabetes.

“PCOS looks to be at least two or three different conditions we’re lumping together, but they’re genetically distinct,” said Dunaif, the chief of the endocrinology, diabetes and bone disease division of Mount Sinai Health System and the Icahn School of Medicine.

The confusion surrounding PCOS diagnosis is partly why it’s been hard to get large pharmaceutical companies to invest in PCOS treatment, she said.

In Dunaif’s view, it’s not accurate to call the condition “PCOS” at all, because it has more to do with excess hormones than it does with actual cysts on the ovaries. PCOS got its name from the bumps on the ovaries appearing like cysts on an ultrasound image. These are not cysts, but instead egg follicles that are, as Dunaif described them, “arrested in development.”

As it is, many doctors diagnose the condition based on two of three factors:

Irregular periods
High androgen levels
Multiple follicles on the patient’s ovaries

But these three factors don’t account for some of the most challenging symptoms of PCOS: insulin resistance and stubborn weight gain. Excess androgen hormones can spike insulin levels, which interferes with how the body processes sugar. Doctors aren’t sure whether the hormonal dysregulation causes insulin resistance, or whether insulin resistance causes excess androgen hormones.

Either way, women with PCOS have a higher risk of diabetes, excess weight gain, high cholesterol, and high blood pressure. Yet these metabolic conditions aren’t included in the criteria many doctors use to diagnose PCOS. The result? A missed diagnosis.

This was initially the case for Candice Bolden, 35, who started noticing acne and excess facial and body hair several years before she was diagnosed with PCOS in 2021. Bolden, a lifelong dancer, also had unusually low energy.

“The final straw was excess weight gain that I could not take off no matter what I did,” said Bolden, who lives in Los Angeles. “All the other things I had kind of just stuffed under the rug. I’d just chalked it up to being a hairy, Haitian woman.”

After gaining 35 pounds, the 5-foot-2-inch Bolden, who exercised twice a day and followed strict diets, saw multiple doctors who she said ignored her symptoms.

“Doctors kept telling me I was fine, and to go home, work out, and eat clean,” she said. “It was the most frustrating thing ever.”

‘We don’t have to live underneath this dark cloud’

Women living with PCOS say the rise of online communities, including on social media apps like TikTok and Instagram, has given them a place to speak out, share the treatment approaches working for them, and meet other women with PCOS.

When Bolden finally got a diagnosis, she wasn’t sure what to do next. Gutke and Hacatoryan had similar experiences.

“I was like, ‘Wait, I have so many questions,’ and the doctor just told me, ‘It is what it is,’” Hacatoryan said.

Hacatoryan calls women in her online community her “cysters.”

Bolden said she’s noticed more women turning to social media to learn how others manage their PCOS and share their own stories.

On her own social media accounts, she’s been trying to change the narrative about PCOS being primarily a fertility problem, which she sees as an outdated perception.

“When I was diagnosed, my doctor mentioned PCOS being the No. 1 reason for infertility, and that shattered me,” said Bolden, who was newly engaged at the time and eager to start a family. “I was happy I was diagnosed, because it showed me something was actually happening and I wasn’t just crazy. But I was heartbroken.”

Things changed after Bolden moved; found a new doctor; and worked closely with her husband and the online PCOS community to find a system that worked to manage her PCOS symptoms.

Bolden is now pregnant and expecting a baby girl.

“I want people diagnosed with PCOS to know there’s hope, and we don’t have to live underneath this dark cloud all the time,” she said.

‘After Years Of Failed Fad Diets And Workouts, I Started Lifting Heavy Weights At 43′

Women’s Health

‘After Years Of Failed Fad Diets And Workouts, I Started Lifting Heavy Weights At 43′

Jenna Seguin, as told to Andi Breitowich – March 30, 2024

jenna seguin strength transformation — ‘I Tried Every Diet, But This Changed Everything’Courtesy of Jenna Seguin

“Hearst Magazines and Yahoo may earn commission or revenue on some items through these links.”

I’ve always tried to eat well and exercise, but I lacked consistency. Whether it was the Whole30 diet, 75 Hard challenge, or a month-long bootcamp, everything always had a clear start and end date. I was quick to move on and, consequently, never saw lasting results.

In April 2021, I finally had enough. I realized doing the same thing over and over without results is scarier than trying something new, so I set up a meeting with a personal trainer at my local gym. I experimented with lifting weights in my early 20s here and there, but I was never consistent and didn’t follow a program. But I’m a lifelong learner who enjoys getting out of my comfort zone. My goals were simple, yet ambitious: I wanted to master the big lifts—bench press, squat, and deadlift—and I wanted to understand how to increase weight progressively to reach my full potential.

My first session was tough. Everything was hard, my form was all over the place, and the moves felt awkward. I was also nervous that people thought I didn’t belong in the gym. But instead of saying, “This is hard I can’t do it,” I said, “How can I improve?” Approaching this new challenge with curiosity, rather than fear, empowered me. I was determined to get stronger, and I was ready to put in the work.

I committed to training four times a week: two days with my trainer and two days on my own. I wanted to stay consistent, improve my form, and build muscle. I was excited for the challenge and motivated to get better.

After consistently working with my trainer for a year, I was craving more.

On Instagram, I came across a video of Michelle MacDonald bench pressing and was in awe of her form and heavy weight. I wanted to level up, so I applied to Michelle’s personal training community, The Wonder Women.

In August 2022, I started virtual training with The Wonder Women five days a week: three lower body days and two upper body days. I prioritized form and focused on progressive overload, but I also got curious about bodybuilding.

I decided to start training for my first bodybuilding competition in June 2023, but 12 weeks into prep, my competition was canceled. The Wonder Women didn’t have spots available to transfer into the current bodybuilding training group, so I switched teams and joined Dynasty Training.

Now, I train four days a week—two for lower body and two for upper body.

I’m preparing for my first show at the end of 2024, so I recently started my “build phase,” which consists of four days of weight training: two lower body days and two upper body days. My goal is to build muscle, but instead of only focusing on how much weight I can lift, I also prioritize tempo and increasing my reps and sets.

For lower-body workouts: I do a glutes and quads day and a posterior chain day. My workouts are typically an hour and a half, and I do seven to 10 moves per session. The number of reps and sets varies, but most of my current lower-body lifts are based on a ladder model: 12 reps, 10 reps, eight reps, and six reps of each move, increasing weight as the number of reps decreases.

For upper-body workouts: I do a shoulders and back day and a chest and arms day. These workouts are typically an hour, and I do seven to 10 moves per session, including bench press, pullups, man makers, lat pulldowns, and pushups.

I also do 35 minutes of cardio six days a week and have one day designated to core and high intensity intervals, and one day of stretching. Sunday is my day off.

Lower body is my favorite to train and I especially love deadlifts, Bulgarian split squats, and hip thrusts. Now, I can deadlift 195 pounds and thrust 300 pounds. I’m currently working on adding a pause at the top of each hip thrust and let me tell you… it adds a whole other level of intensity.

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I learned to count macros and let go of the belief that I needed to restrict food.

I’ve tried every diet in the book, but nothing was ever sustainable or satisfying. Then, I learned to count macros and realized I could still eat my favorite foods when I paid attention to portion size and nutrition labels.

I eat four to five meals a day and focus on my protein, carb, and fat intake. I always prioritize protein, and chicken, turkey, and fish are my go-to sources. It’s also fun to try new macro-friendly recipes, and meal prepping on Sunday sets me up for success during the week.

That said, it took me a long time to get over the idea of restriction. I was so used to eliminating foods and eating as little as possible, but once I learned nothing is off limits and macros are about balance and variety, I felt better than ever. Instead of a month-long, restrictive, fad diet, I realized the most sustainable plan is listening to my body and eating the foods I love.

These three things were key to my strength transformation success.

1. I let go of the notion that my strength journey needs to be perfect.

When I started strength training in 2021, it wasn’t necessarily the “perfect time” to embark on a new journey. But I decided to stop waiting and took control of my situation. Is every workout perfect? Nope! But that’s okay. I realized if I keep trying and continue to show up it’s going to pay off in the long run.

2. I became more self-aware and understood the value of the mind-body connection.

It’s so easy to operate on autopilot, but I’ve learned to evaluate my *entire* lifestyle when something feels off. If my energy levels are low, I look at my diet and sleeping habits. When I’m stressed, I reflect on why instead of letting anxiety rule my day.

As a result, I’ve learned the importance of the mind-body connection. How I’m feeling physically and mentally can have a direct impact on each other and the overall sense of self-awareness has gotten me closer to my goals.

3. I gave myself the opportunity to be good at something and realized consistency is key.

Most of my life, I participated in diets and fitness programs that had a clear start and end date. Once I understood that people become good at things by being consistent, a light bulb went off. I realized I had never given myself a chance (or the time) to get good. I always expected quick results and a long-term program seemed daunting, but when I challenged myself to start weight lifting without an end date in mind, my whole mindset changed.

Not only do I love that consistency brings me closer to my goals, but I found value and motivation in the process. Whether it’s perfecting my form or mastering a recipe, the sense of accomplishment after nailing a new skill keeps me determined to get better and stronger. It’s fun to show up for yourself and consistency in the gym has given me the opportunity to believe in myself.

Do turmeric supplements really treat pain, boost mood, and improve allergies? Experts say they work best for 2 conditions

Fortune

Do turmeric supplements really treat pain, boost mood, and improve allergies? Experts say they work best for 2 conditions

Stephanie Watson – March 30, 2024

Americans spend around $50 billion a year on vitamins and supplements. One of the most popular is turmeric, a bright orange root that has its roots in both traditional Eastern medicine and cuisine. Proponents are willing to pay $20 or more for a bottle, hoping to relieve arthritis pain and inflammation, lower cholesterol and blood sugar levels, and treat whatever else happens to ail them. But is it worth the money?

While a lot of research has highlighted turmeric’s antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, the wide range of supplement potencies and doses used in studies has made it hard to confirm any health claims.

Dr. Keith Singletary, professor emeritus of nutrition at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, has reviewed the evidence on turmeric. His take? “I think it’s promising,” he says, but he stresses that it isn’t “the cure-all that marketing would make it appear.”

Health benefits of turmeric

The health properties attributed to turmeric come from natural compounds called curcuminoids. “Curcumin, which is the major one, is believed to be largely responsible for the health benefits of turmeric,” says Singletary.

What might curcumin do? The best evidence centers on two conditions: arthritis and metabolic syndrome.

Arthritis

Considering turmeric’s anti-inflammatory properties, it’s not surprising that researchers have investigated its use for arthritis. The supplement does appear to reduce pain and stiffness from osteoarthritis, the most common form of this achy joint disease.

“It’s not a miracle drug, but it probably works as well as ibuprofen or acetaminophen,” says Dr. Janet L. Funk, professor of medicine and vice chair of research for the Department of Medicine at the University of Arizona College of Medicine-Tucson. Her lab studies plant-derived dietary supplements for inflammatory diseases.

Metabolic syndrome

This isn’t a disease, but rather a cluster of conditions like obesity, high blood pressure, high blood sugar, and high triglycerides that collectively increase the risk for diabetes, heart disease, and stroke. About 1 in 3 American adults have metabolic syndrome, according to the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI).

Studies have looked at the effects of turmeric on blood sugar, triglycerides, and insulin levels, as well as on inflammation (which also plays a role in metabolic syndrome). “In general, there was a strong preponderance of evidence that it might help reduce all those things. So it might have some benefit in people who are overweight and concerned about inflammation and diabetes,” Funk says.

But—there’s a very big caveat. “There’s a lot of inconsistency between studies,” Singletary says. And therein lies the problem in evaluating turmeric.

An imperfect science

Though plenty of research is being done on turmeric, the studies aren’t consistent. Researchers have tested different amounts of the supplement in different groups of people for different amounts of time. Some studies added a compound like piperine, found in black pepper, to make turmeric more active in the body (researchers call this increased “bioavailability”).

For example, one study on knee osteoarthritis had participants take 180 milligrams (mg) of curcumin for eight weeks. Another one used doses of 500 mg plus 5 mg of BioPerine (black pepper) extract three times a day for six weeks.

Because most of the studies have lasted four months or less, researchers don’t know what might happen with long-term use. “The bottom line is, there’s no definitive, well-designed studies at this point,” Funk says. She’s skeptical that there ever will be, given that the nutraceutical industry and the National Institutes of Health aren’t funding them.

The risks of turmeric

Turmeric is probably safe if you get it from the spice or you take only the recommended amount in supplements, says the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health. In larger quantities, it could cause GI side effects like nausea or diarrhea.

Piperine poses its own set of issues, because it increases the bioavailability of curcumin by inactivating an enzyme in the liver that would otherwise break it down. “That enzyme is really important for [breaking down] most drugs people take,” says Funk. Theoretically, piperine might cause a buildup of medications in the body, thus increasing the risk for side effects. “Generally speaking, if you’re taking other medications, I would shy away from any product that has piperine in it, just in case it could interfere with the metabolism of your other drugs,” she adds.

An even bigger concern is a rare but serious risk of liver damage from turmeric supplements, as well as high levels of lead in these products. Several studies, including one that Funk co-authored, found excessive amounts of lead in some turmeric supplements—especially those that contained turmeric root. Exposure to lead in large quantities can have toxic effects on the body, including heart and kidney problems.

Should you take turmeric?

Is it worth taking turmeric? “That’s the million- dollar question,” says Singletary. Given the lack of clear evidence on its benefits and the potential risks, he says you’re safest getting turmeric through your diet. You can add the spice to soups, stews, sauces, and smoothies. Top them with a pinch of black pepper or cook turmeric in oil to enhance its bioavailability.

If you do use turmeric supplements, it can be difficult to know which form is best, or how much to take. The best advice is to ask your health care provider, says Singletary. Start out with a low dose to see how your body responds to it. And don’t expect turmeric to be a “cure-all for all your ailments, which is unlikely to be the case,” he adds.

Read more on supplements:

New report finds striking parallels between tobacco, gas stove campaigns: ‘This is intentional; it’s by design’

The Cool Down

New report finds striking parallels between tobacco, gas stove campaigns: ‘This is intentional; it’s by design’

Ben Stern – March 22, 2024

For decades, tobacco companies misled the public about the dangers of their products, engaging in multipronged PR campaigns and spreading disinformation.

Today, nicotine and smoking are widely acknowledged to be addictive, and cigarettes are known to cause cancer. But it took years to expose these truths, all while massive tobacco corporations profited from the harm they caused.

In a striking new report titled “Cooking with Smoke: How the Gas Industry Used Tobacco Tactics to Cover up Harms from Gas Stoves,” the Public Health Law Center has revealed how Big Tobacco’s playbook of deception was also used to convince the public that gas stoves are safe.

The beginning of the gas stove fight

While news coverage on the potential dangers of gas stove pollution has recently picked up, researchers have been trying to sound the alarm since at least the 1970s.

Early studies conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency were primarily focused on investigating the health impacts of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) pollution from gas stoves.

After it was determined that such NO₂ exposure could cause or worsen asthma and other respiratory problems, the American Gas Association (AGA), fearing public outcry, began to fund its own research claiming that gas stoves weren’t associated with respiratory issues.

Yet the current scientific consensus is that gas stoves are burdening the public with health issues, specifically our children. One peer-reviewed study from the nonprofit think tank RMI found that more than one in eight cases of childhood asthma in America is associated with a gas stove in the home.

The full health impacts of exposure to gas stove pollution are unfortunately not yet known. Pediatrician Dr. Lisa Patel, the Executive Director of the Medical Society Consortium on Climate and Health, believes it’s critical to learn more about gas stoves’ potential dangers sooner rather than later.

“Because the oil and gas industry has been so successful in pulling the wool over our eyes, suppressing the research, we’re still figuring out which of the pollutants [from stoves] is the ‘worst’ in terms of risk,” Dr. Patel told The Cool Down.

Cooking with smoke

The Public Health Law Center’s new report lays out how eerily similar the disinformation campaigns of the gas and tobacco industries are.

“Cooking with Smoke” describes seven of the deceptive tactics used by both the tobacco and gas industries to mislead the American public.

One such tactic is hiring the same scientists and research labs to provide biased or partial information pointing to desired results — namely, downplaying the health impacts of tobacco products and gas stoves. The AGA has hired the exact same laboratory as the Council for Tobacco Research, a tobacco industry trade group, for its sponsored research.

Last year, a New York Times exposé revealed that not only did the AGA hire a toxicologist to obscure the relationship between gas stoves and health impacts, but that same toxicologist was hired by the cigarette company Philip Morris to provide testimony claiming that Marlboro Lights were “safer for smokers.”

Another strategy utilized by both industries is the marketing of deceptive media to children. As outlined in the report, gas companies have used social media influencers to promote gas stoves to young people. Within the past two years, the gas industry has also sent coloring books to schools, telling children that “natural gas [is] your invisible friend,” as the report noted.

We deserve better

Due to decades of industry disinformation, the health harms caused by gas stoves have largely gone unnoticed or misunderstood by the American public. But just as Big Tobacco couldn’t hide the truth about cigarettes, the gas industry won’t be able to successfully hide the dangers of its stoves from the public forever.

“The gas industry wants us to accept health harms that we don’t have to. This is intentional; it’s by design,” Joelle Lester, Executive Director of the Public Health Law Center, told The Cool Down. “That’s where the gas industry is similar to Big Tobacco. They will continue to resist regulation and restriction to protect their profits.”

Change is coming

Both Lester and Dr. Patel believe that more information about the true health risks of gas stoves will inevitably emerge. When it does, change will follow.

“Jurisdictions will make changes [to transition away from gas stoves],” Lester told The Cool Down, “and once the sky doesn’t fall, and the health benefits can be measured, it will be so powerful.”

And according to Dr. Patel, “in the end, science and wanting to take care of each other will always win out.”

Actions you can take now

For those worried about the impacts of gas stoves, waiting on policy fixes isn’t necessary. The best way for an individual to eliminate the health risks of a gas stove is to replace it with an induction or electric range.

Induction cooktops have already proven to be the superior option in many ways, cooking food more quickly, evenly, efficiently, and safely than gas stoves.

While replacing your gas stove may seem daunting, the federal government, through the Inflation Reduction Act, will offer up to $840 to those who make the switch.

Even renters will be able to take advantage of this point-of-sale rebate by purchasing plug-in induction cooktops.

Some landlords may also be amenable to electrification projects, like installing induction stoves, once they find out how much more energy-efficient the devices are. The nonprofit Rewiring America has an in-depth guide for talking to your landlord about upgrading.

Of course, even with an $840 upfront discount, not every family will be able to make the switch. For those families, many options still exist to protect their respiratory health. Dr. Patel told The Cool Down: “If they can’t get that gas cooktop out, using electric appliances, opening windows, [or] using an overhead vent helps.”

Top 20 Tobacco Growing Countries in the World

Insider Monkey

Top 20 Tobacco Growing Countries in the World

Sultan Khalid – March 29, 2024

In this article, we are going to discuss the top 20 tobacco growing countries in the world. You can skip our detailed analysis of the global tobacco market, the heavy investments in marketing by tobacco companies, and the rising popularity of flavored tobacco, and go directly to the Top 5 Tobacco Growing Countries in the World.

Tobacco was first used by the people of pre-Columbian Americas. Archeological studies suggest that the Maya people of Central America started using tobacco leaves as far back as the 1st century BC, mainly for smoking in sacred and religious ceremonies. By the time Columbus arrived in the New World in 1492, the Native Americans were already cultivating and smoking tobacco in pipes, cigars, and snuff. Although Cristopher Columbus brought with him a few tobacco leaves and seeds back to Europe, most Europeans didn’t get their first taste of the plant until the mid-16th century, when adventurers and diplomats like France’s Jean Nicot – for whom nicotine is named – began to popularize its use. Tobacco was introduced to France in 1556, Portugal in 1558, Spain in 1559, and finally England in 1565. By the early 17th century, smoking was common in all of Europe’s maritime nations, and their colonial empires soon carried tobacco all over the world.

Global Tobacco Market:

As we mentioned in our article – Top 20 Most Valuable Tobacco Companies in the World – the global tobacco market is expected to reach $1.049 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.1% during the forecast period. The market is fuelled by a growing demand from developing nations, coupled with the rising proliferation of next-generation products (NGPs) across the globe. The high marketing expenditure and discounting of products undertaken by major tobacco companies is also adding to the growth of the industry.

While tobacco consumption is leveling off and even decreasing in some countries, the number of people smoking is still increasing globally, and smokers are smoking more than before. An estimated 1.3 billion people worldwide use tobacco products, 80% of whom are in low- and middle-income countries.

Heavy Investments in Marketing:

The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) has led to widespread restrictions on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship around the world. This, coupled with the evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic, has inspired more than half the countries worldwide to ban some forms of tobacco marketing.

Yet, tobacco companies have found creative ways to maneuver their way around these barriers, using a variety of marketing strategies to create demand for cigarettes and other tobacco products by urging the youth to experiment, reducing smokers’ motivation to quit, and encouraging former smokers to take it up again. According to the Federal Trade Commission, in 2020 alone, the American tobacco industry spent over $8.4 billion on marketing for cigarettes and smokeless tobacco, spending more at the point-of-sale than anywhere else. They spent nearly $66 million on advertisements at the point of sale alone.

However, this hasn’t been without consequences. In September 2023, the e-cigarette company Juul, which at the height of its success dominated the market with its sweet flavors, agreed to pay $438.5 million in a settlement with 33 states and one territory over marketing its product to teens. The case ends major litigation over claims about the marketing of e-cigarettes to adolescents, resolving thousands of lawsuits and amounting to billions of dollars in payouts to states, cities, and people.

Sales of Juul products were sky high a few years ago and the company was even eyeing a market valuation of around $38 billion. However, it was discovered that Juul use among teens and young adults spiked heavily from 2018 to 2019. An estimated 27.5% of high schoolers reported using e-cigarettes during the period, with more than half naming Juul as their brand of choice. To add to the company’s woes, the FDA banned Juul products on U.S. shelves last summer, citing a lack of evidence demonstrating their overall safety. The regulator also noted Juul’s ‘disproportionate role in the rise in youth vaping.’

The Rising Popularity of Flavored Tobacco:

Flavors improve the taste and mask the harshness of tobacco, making flavored tobacco products more appealing and easier to smoke for beginners, who are often young. In 2022, cigars were the second most commonly used tobacco product among U.S. middle and high school students. The availability of flavors in cigars that are prohibited in cigarettes (such as cherry), and the fact that they are commonly sold as a single stick, has raised concerns that these products may be especially appealing to youth. According to a 2021 survey by the CDC, among middle and high school students who smoked cigars in the previous 30 days, 44.4% reported using a flavored cigar during that time.

A popular name among the machine made, flavored cigars is Middleton’s Black and Mild. Designed for the occasional smoker, these pipe tobacco cigars boast a smoke smooth enough to satisfy an aficionado in a pinch. Owned by Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO), Black & Mild cigars are available in a variety of flavors like apple, cherry, cream, and more.

The John Middleton Co., a famous name in the pipe tobacco and machine cigars industry, was acquired by the Richmond-based Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) in 2007 in a deal worth $2.9 billion, thus enabling the tobacco giant to break into the growing American cigar business as it tried to expand beyond the shrinking U.S. cigarette market. The net cost of the acquisition of Middleton, maker of Black & Mild cigars, from the privately held Bradford Holdings was $2.2 billion, after deducting $700 million in tax benefits arising from the deal.

Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) ranks among the Largest Tobacco Companies in the World by Market Cap.

With that said, here are the Largest Tobacco Growing Countries in the World.

Top 20 Tobacco Growing Countries in the World

Methodology:

To collect data for this article, we have referred to FAOSTAT, looking for the Countries that Grow the Most Tobacco. The following countries have been ranked by their respective land areas dedicated to tobacco production (measured in hectares) in 2021.

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20. Ivory Coast

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 15,979 ha

Ivory Coast is a significant producer and consumer of tobacco in Africa, with an estimated 9.4% of the adult population classified as smokers. However, the West African nation has taken significant steps to reduce the smoking rate among its people. In fact, Côte d’Ivoire became the first country in Africa to require plain packaging on tobacco products in 2022.

19. North Macedonia

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 16,617 ha

North Macedonia has a long tradition of cultivating and exporting oriental tobacco, mainly of the types Prilep, Jaka, and Basma. Due to the large number of families working in tobacco agriculture, it also receives the largest share of crop subsidies, comprising on average a quarter of total agricultural subsidies for the period 2008 – 2019.

18. Cuba

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 16,682 ha

Cuban cigars have long been a symbol of luxury and prestige, and the country produces some of the Most Expensive Cigars in the World. Due to consistently warm temperatures, high humidity, and regular rainfall, Cuba has excellent conditions for growing tobacco and it has been a mainstay crop for thousands of years.

Cuba is placed among the Countries that Produce the Best Tobacco in the World.

17. Thailand

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 21,059 ha

Tobacco leaves are produced in 20 provinces in the North and Northeast of Thailand and last year, around 50% of Thai tobacco farmers grew burley, while 26% grew turkish leaf, and 24% grew virginia leaf. Most of this produce supplies the local market, monopolized by the Tobacco Authority of Thailand under government supervision for setting quotas and producing cigarettes.

Thailand is included among the Top Producers of Tobacco in Asia.

16. Uganda

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 21,998 ha

Tobacco growing and manufacturing in Uganda was introduced in the 1920s by British American Tobacco, and around 75,000 of the nation’s farmers are now involved in tobacco agriculture, based mainly in the northwest and southwest of the country.

15. Philippines

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 28,380 ha

First introduced in the 1950’s, tobacco is widely grown in various provinces in the Philippines, with the industry supporting over 2 million jobs nationwide. The country exported 53% of its total tobacco produced in 2022, while 47% was supplied to local tobacco manufacturers.

14. Pakistan

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 47,332 ha

Although tobacco is grown on only about 0.23% of total irrigated land of Pakistan, the crop plays an important role in the country’s economy by generating income and employment for over 50,000 farmers in all four provinces. However, the total land area under tobacco cultivation has been rapidly decreasing over the last decade, mainly due to climate change and negligence by the government authorities.

13. Bangladesh

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 47,523 ha

The cultivation of tobacco is increasing alarmingly in Bangladesh, with the crop now being grown in every part of the country. Farmers are encouraged to continue and expand tobacco cultivation with various incentives, including loans and buyback guarantees.

12. Argentina

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 53,840 ha

Argentina stands among the Largest Tobacco Producers in South America, with the country producing 95.6 thousand tons in 2022, representing approximately 1.7% of the global production of tobacco of 5.8 million tons. Most of the tobacco cultivation happens in the north, with the provinces of Jujuy, Salta, and Misiones taking the lead.

11. North Korea

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 56,995 ha

The tobacco industry plays a significant role in the North Korean economy, with around 2.3% of the country’s total arable land dedicated to cultivating the cash crop. North Korea’s counterfeit cigarette production capacity is estimated to exceed two billion packs a year, and is a major source of income for the regime.

10. Tanzania

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 80,678 ha

Tobacco has been grown in Tanzania since the 1950s and is an important source of foreign exchange for the country. Tanzania produced 125 million kg of tobacco in 2023 and for the first

time, more than 50% of this produce was bought and sold abroad by local companies.

9. Turkey

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 83,166 ha

Tobacco was introduced to the Ottomans by the Spanish in the 17th century, and the country is now the world’s largest producer of aromatic oriental tobacco – a small-leafed variety which is sun-cured. Around 400,000 Turks are dependent on the tobacco industry for their livelihood.

8. Mozambique

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 91,469 ha

Tobacco cultivation has been considered a mainstay of Mozambique’s economy and the country exported $49.4 million of it in the first nine months of 2023, a quarter less than in the previous year. Most of this tobacco is grown in the regions of Tete and Niassa, representing over 89% of the country’s total production.

7. United States of America

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 95,730 ha

Although America has significantly decreased cultivating tobacco since the 1980s, it still ranks among the largest producers of the crop. North Carolina and Kentucky are the States that Grow the Most Tobacco in America.

The total U.S. annual tobacco consumption was recorded at 237,079 tons in 2020, putting it among the Countries with the Highest Tobacco Consumption.

6. Malawi

Total Area Dedicated to Tobacco Production: 100,962 ha

Tobacco is the backbone of the Malawian economy, historically generating about 70% of the country’s export revenue and now accounting for over 50%. In 2015, tobacco farming took up more than 5% of all of Malawi’s farming land – the highest percentage anywhere in the world at that time.

Malawi ranks among the Largest Producers of Burley Tobacco in the World.

Click to continue reading and see the Top 5 Tobacco Growing Countries in the World.

‘Humbling, and a bit worrying’: Scientists fail to fully explain record global heat

Los Angeles Times

‘Humbling, and a bit worrying’: Scientists fail to fully explain record global heat

Hayley Smith – March 27, 2024

HUNTINGTON BEACH, CALIF. - DEC. 6, 2023. Beachgoers are framed against the setting sun at the end of a warm day in Huntington Beach. Scientists say that Novemeber was the sixth straight month to set a heat record. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times) — The sun sets over Huntington Beach at the end of a hot December day in 2023. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)

Deadly heat in the Southwest. Hot-tub temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. Sweltering conditions in Europe, Asia and South America.

That 2023 was Earth’s hottest year on record was in some ways no surprise. For decades, scientists have been sounding the alarm about rapidly rising temperatures driven by humanity’s relentless burning of fossil fuels.

But last year’s sudden spike in global temperatures blew far beyond what statistical climate models had predicted, leading one noted climate scientist to warn that the world may be entering “uncharted territory.”

“It’s humbling, and a bit worrying, to admit that no year has confounded climate scientists’ predictive capabilities more than 2023 has,” wrote Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in a recent article in the journal Nature.

Now, he and other researchers are scrambling to explain why 2023 was so anomalously hot. Many theories have been proposed, but “as yet, no combination of them has been able to reconcile our theories with what has happened,” Schmidt wrote.

A young boy raises his hands and opens his mouth as mist sprays from a series of nozzles. — Misters spray water on a young boy at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., as as temperatures approached 100 degrees in June 2023. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

Last year’s global average temperature of 58.96 degrees Fahrenheit was about a third of a degree warmer than the previous hottest year in 2016, and about 2.67 degrees warmer than the late 1800s pre-industrial period against which global warming is measured.

While human-caused climate change and El Niño can account for much of that warming, Schmidt and other experts say the extra three or four tenths of a degree is harder to account for.

Theories for the increase include a 2020 change in aerosol shipping regulations designed to help improve air quality around ports and coastal areas, which may have had the unintended consequence of enabling more sunlight to reach the planet.

The 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai volcano also shot millions of tons of water vapor into the stratosphere, which scientists say helped to trap some heat. What’s more, a recent uptick in the 11-year solar cycle may have contributed about a tenth of a degree of additional warning.

But these factors alone cannot explain what’s happening, Schmidt said.

“Even after taking all plausible explanations into account, the divergence between expected and observed annual mean temperatures in 2023 remains about 0.2 °C — roughly the gap between the previous and current annual record,” he wrote in his report.

Heat ripples from hot asphalt as two women cross a street. — Heat ripples from hot asphalt in downtown Phoenix in July 2023. (Matt York / Associated Press)

Reached by phone, Schmidt said he thinks one of three things could be going on.

It’s possible that 2023 was a “blip” — a perfect storm of natural variables and Earth cycles lining up to create one freakishly hot year. Should that prove to be the case, “it won’t have huge implications for what we’re going to see in the future, because it would have been just such a rare and unlikely thing that is not going to happen again anytime soon,” he said.

However, he indicated that’s unlikely, as those elements “have never lined up to give us a blip this large.”

Another possibility is that scientists have misunderstood the driving forces of climate change. While greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions and aerosols are known to affect global temperatures, perhaps the full extent of their effects have been underestimated or miscalibrated. Should that be the case, he said, research and data sets will hopefully catch up soon.

The last explanation he offered is that the system itself is changing — and changing in ways that are faster and less predictable than previously understood.

“That would be worrying because science is really all about taking information from the past, looking at what’s going on, and making predictions about the future,” Schmidt said. “If we can’t really trust the past, then we have no idea what’s going to happen.”

Not everyone agrees with his assessment, however. Michael Mann, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania, said the premise that 2023’s warmth cannot be explained — or that it is inconsistent with model simulations — is “simply wrong.”

“The situation is extremely similar to what we saw during the 2014-2016 period as we transitioned from several years of La Niña conditions to a major El Niño event, and then back to La Niña,” Mann said in an email.

In fact, he said some recent modeling shows the global temperature spike in 2016 was even more of an outlier than that of 2023.

“The plot shows that the surface warming of the planet is proceeding almost precisely as predicted,” Mann said. “And the models show that the warming will continue apace as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels and generate carbon pollution.”

When asked about this interpretation, Schmidt said it’s true that the 2014 to 2016 period was similarly anomalous. But there is a key difference between then and now, he said.

The 2016 temperature spike came on the heels of an El Niño event, with the biggest anomalies in February, March and April of the year following its peak, he said. He noted that similar patterns occurred after previous El Niños in 1998 and 1942.

Conversely, last year’s spike arrived in August, September, October and November — before the peak of El Niño — “and that has never happened before,” Schmidt said. “It never happened in the temperature record that we have. It doesn’t happen in the climate models.”

Alex Hall, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at UCLA, said he largely agrees with Schmidt’s assessment that the hypothesized factors alone can’t account for the large temperature anomaly experienced in 2023 and early 2024. He likened it to the emergence of megafires, or extreme wildfires, in the last decade, which wasn’t entirely foreseen.

“What we’ve learned is that there’s an aspect of this that isn’t fully predictable — that we don’t fully understand — and that we are tempting fate here a little bit by continuing to interfere with the climate system,” Hall said. “It’s going to do things that we don’t understand, that we don’t anticipate, and those are going to have potentially big impacts.”

Hall said the rapid transition from a persistent La Niña to a strong El Niño last summer likely played a role, as did the change in aerosol regulations.

He also posited that the rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice in 2023 — itself an outcome of the warmer planet and oceans — could have created a kind of feedback loop that contributed to more warming. Ice and snow are reflective, so when they melt, it can result in a darker ocean that absorbs more heat and sunlight. (Antarctic sea ice coverage dropped to a record low in 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“It’s sort of a planetary emergency for us to figure out what’s going on when we see these types of changes,” Hall said. “There should be large teams of people working on it to try to understand it, and we don’t really have those kinds of efforts, so I think there’s lessons, too, for the need for focus on this particular topic.”

Tourists visiting the Acropolis of Athens gather around the Parthenon temple. — Tourists seek shade and water while visiting the Acropolis of Athens during a heat wave in July 2023. (Petros Giannakouris / Associated Press)

While he and other scientists may not agree on just how extraordinary 2023 was — or what was behind its exceptional warmth — they all acknowledged the clear signs of a planet being pushed to its limits.

“I think it’s unfortunate that so much has been made of the El Niño-spiked 2023 global temperatures, where in my view there is nothing surprising, or inconsistent with model predictions, there,” said Mann. “There are much better, scientifically-sound reasons to be concerned about the unfolding climate crisis — particularly the onslaught of devastating weather extremes, heat waves, wildfires, floods, drought, which by some measures are indeed exceeding model predictions.”

Last year was marked by extreme weather events, with more billion-dollar disasters in the United States than any other year, according to NOAA. Among them were the Lahaina wildfire in Hawaii in August; Hurricane Idalia in Florida that same month; and severe flooding in New York in September.

Already this year, January and February have continued the global hot streak, marking nine consecutive months of a record-breaking temperatures.

In his Nature article, Schmidt said the inexplicable elements of the recent warming have revealed an “unprecedented knowledge gap” in today’s climate monitoring, which drives home the need for more nimble data collection that can keep up with the pace of change.

He noted it may take researchers months or even years to unpack all the factors that could have played a part in the sizzling conditions.

“We need answers for why 2023 turned out to be the warmest year in possibly the past 100,000 years,” he wrote. “And we need them quickly.”

Though El Niño is expected to wane this summer, there is still a 45% chance that this year will be warmer than 2023, according to NOAA.

It is a near certainty however that 2024 will rank among the five hottest years on record — so far.

Fast-food companies seeing low-income diners pare orders

Reuters

Fast-food companies seeing low-income diners pare orders

Waylon Cunningham – March 27, 2024

FILE PHOTO: McDonald's Corp. reports fourth quarter earnings — McDonald’s Corp. reports fourth quarter earnings

A Wendy’s sign and logo are shown at one of the company’s restaurant in Encinitas, California

SAN ANTONIO, Texas (Reuters) – Runaway prices at U.S. fast-food joints and restaurants have made people skittish down the income ladder and executives at chains including McDonald’s and Wendy’s recently said they worry about losing business from those on the tightest budgets.

Roughly a quarter of low-income consumers, defined as those making less than $50,000 a year, said they were eating less fast food and about half said they were making fewer trips to fast-casual and full-service dining establishments, according to polling in February by Revenue Management Solutions, a consulting firm.

The rising price of food is contributing to budget-conscious diners cutting back.

Whether consumed at home or in a restaurant, food prices rose 20% from Jan. 2021 to Jan. 2024, the fastest jump on record. A recent census Household Pulse Survey showed half of people earning less than $35,000 a year had difficulty paying everyday expenses, and nearly 80% were moderately or “very” stressed by recent price increases.

Lauren Oxford, a musician who works part time at a bed-and-breakfast in Tennessee, said she used to stop by McDonald’s after running errands, treating herself to two double hamburgers, fries and a drink, for less than $5. As prices rose, she switched to smaller hamburgers and stopped getting the drink.

But after a year in which McDonald’s franchisees drove prices up about 10% according to the company’s executives, she’s going to McDonald’s less in general. “Now I don’t know if I can justify that.”

In the Fed’s most recent Beige Book compendium of anecdotal reports gathered from business and community contacts around the country, 7 of 12 regional Fed districts reported low-income consumers were changing spending habits in search of bargains, seeking more help from community groups, or struggling to access credit.

About one-third of Black American households, and 21% of white American households, earned less than $35,000 in 2022, according to the latest available U.S. census data.

For fast-food companies that often promote an image of affordability, low-income consumers are a significant portion of the customer base and a bellwether for longer-term trends. But they are typically the first to cut back spending and the last to come back.

But now, chains may be less likely to chase customers as hard as they have in the past because even with a drop in traffic, sales have remained consistent supported by increased prices.

Fast food companies aren’t “in a hurry to take traffic over profit the way they were a decade ago,” said Mike Lukianoff, CEO of SignalFlare.ai and a veteran consultant in the fast food industry.

For example back in 2008, Subway introduced its nationwide $5 footlong, which became the poster sandwich for the Great Recession. That spurred rivals to introduce extreme value deals for budget-conscious customers, such as “$5 Fill-Up Boxes” at Yum! Brands KFC.

In 2016, McDonald’s, after a prolonged slump in sales, introduced a bundle deal it called “McPick 2”, allowing customers to choose 2 items, like a McDouble, for $2. Within months, Wendy’s offered a four for $4 deal. Burger King offered five for $4. Pizza Hut had a $5 “flavor menu.”

APP-DRIVEN DISCOUNTS

Now, instead of across-the-board menu slashes and broad discounts, industry analysts say chains are being more selective, aiming them at specific demographics or limiting them to specific meal times or channels, such as its app or only through delivery.

McDonald’s executives told investors in February that it would rely on its existing “value menu” to appeal to low-income consumers who might be tempted to eat packaged food at home instead. CFO Ian Borden said affordability is core to the brand, and the company would continue “evolving” its value offerings.

“The battleground is certainly with that low-income consumer,” McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told investors, referring to people making less than $45,000.

Wendy’s recently introduced a limited-time $1 burger — available only through its app. Its CFO Gunther Plosch told investors in February that among lower-income customers, their traffic is down but their share with the general market is unchanged.

For major fast-food companies, loyalty apps are the go-to strategy among major brands to increase retention and the average amount of money spent. The upside for chains, David Henkes, senior principal with Technomic said, is that they capture more transaction data and demographic data for the consumer, “which is a trade-off many are happy to do.”

For example, McDonald’s frequently offers in-app discounts, such as 20% off an order or free delivery with a large enough order.

Domino’s halved the minimum purchase price to get points in its loyalty program, to $5 from $10, its CEO told investors at a conference in January. It also reduced the number of purchases needed to get a free pizza to as few as two from six. “And so essentially, for this lower-income consumer, we’ve made the brand more accessible,” CEO Russell Weiner said.

To be sure, not every chain is seeing weakness among low-income customers. At Taco Bell, which sells a single taco for $1.40 at many of its stores in San Antonio, locations in low-income markets did better than other locations, Yum! CEO David Gibbs told investors in February.

McDonald’s still holds its appeal for Andreas Garay, a retail worker eating at a McDonald’s in westside San Antonio. He said he plans to keep his coffee-and-Big-Mac habit– even if prices continue going up.

(Reporting by Waylon Cunningham in San Antonio and Howard Schneider in Washington, D.C.; Editing by Anna Driver)

Column: Trump wants to round up over a million undocumented migrants from California. Here’s how he might do it

Los Angeles Times

Column: Trump wants to round up over a million undocumented migrants from California. Here’s how he might do it

Doyle McManus – March 25, 2024

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a visit to an unfinished section of border wall with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, in Pharr, Texas, Wednesday, June 30, 2021. (AP Photo/Eric Gay) — Former President Trump speaks near a section of border wall in Texas in 2021. His plans for a prospective second term include using National Guard troops in mass deportation operations to seize undocumented migrants, transport them to camps in Texas and expel them. (Associated Press )

Former President Trump has focused relentlessly on illegal immigration as a centerpiece of his campaign for the White House, just as when he first ran in 2016.

“They’re poisoning the blood of our country,” he has said of undocumented migrants, using language redolent of the racist doctrines of Adolf Hitler.

He promises to launch “the biggest domestic deportation campaign in American history” on Day One of his new presidency.

His chief immigration advisor, Santa Monica-born Stephen Miller, has spelled out what that would mean: Trump would assemble “a giant force” including National Guard troops to seize undocumented migrants, transport them to camps in Texas and expel them.

“A very conservative estimate would say about 10 million,” Miller told pro-Trump talk show host Charlie Kirk.

If “unfriendly states” — like California — don’t want to cooperate, Miller said, Trump could order Guard units from red states like Texas to cross their borders to enforce the law.

The operation would be “as daring and ambitious … as building the Panama Canal,” Miller promised.

That’s a pretty bloodless way to describe a process that would uproot thousands of families, separate children from their parents and disrupt communities. But before we get to that, a preliminary question:

If he wins in November, could Trump really do that?

From a legal standpoint, the answer is yes.

If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and declares that the National Guard is needed to enforce federal immigration law, he could send Texas troops into California whether Gov. Gavin Newsom agrees or not, legal scholars said.

“We normally don’t want the military enforcing the law inside the country; law enforcement is supposed to be provided by police forces that are local — and locally accountable,” said William Banks, an emeritus professor of law at Syracuse University. “But the Insurrection Act gives the president sweeping authority. You could drive a lot of trucks through that law.”

Newsom would presumably file a lawsuit against Trump to try to block the move, but it would almost certainly fail.

“No state has ever sued successfully to stop a deployment of the Guard under the Insurrection Act,” warned Joseph Nunn of the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.

There are also practical concerns. Most National Guard units are neither trained nor equipped for law enforcement missions.

“Tracking down undocumented migrants is complicated and time-consuming,” Nunn noted. “You need people who know how to do it, like ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] agents.

“The Guard would resist that kind of mission mightily,” added Banks. “They hate this kind of stuff. They would be better suited to patrol the border — to stand next to the wall, the fence or the river and discourage people from coming across.”

So if Trump listens to his generals — not a sure thing — he’d be more likely to use Guard units to bolster weak spots on the border and manage those newly built transit camps for deportees.

That would free up ICE agents for raids on Central Valley farms and Los Angeles sweatshops — which is what immigration agents did in earlier crackdowns, including the offensively named Operation Wetback, which expelled more than a million Mexican migrants (and some U.S. citizens) in 1954.

So legally, there may not be that much California can do. But the fallout in a state home to an estimated 1.9 million undocumented people — roughly 5% of the population — would be difficult to imagine.

The human impact of uprooting most or all of these California residents would be gigantic. Many undocumented migrants are members of families that include legal residents and U.S. citizens, including children.

Many are deeply rooted in their communities; more than two-thirds have lived in the state longer than 10 years, according to one estimate.

“When you harm the undocumented, you harm U.S. citizens too,” said Angelica Salas, executive director of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights in Los Angeles.

“I’ve seen families devastated by the deportation of their loved ones. I’ve seen families, when the father is deported, go right into economic ruin,” Salas said. “The trauma for children, especially small children, is enormous.”

The economic impact of mass deportations would be huge, too. An estimated 1.5 million California workers, more than 7% of the state’s workforce, are undocumented. About half work in agriculture, construction, hospitality and retail, industries that already suffer from severe labor shortages.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said this month that the growth of immigrants in the workforce had strengthened economic growth. “It’s just arithmetic,” said Powell, a Trump appointee. “If you add a couple of million people to an economy … there will be more output.” Abruptly subtracting a million or more would have the opposite effect.

Trump advisors aren’t planning to stop at removing undocumented people from the country.

Miller wants to go after some people in the country legally too.

He has proposed expanding the criteria for deportation to include people with valid visas “whose views, attitudes and beliefs make them ineligible to stay” in the eyes of the new Trump administration.

“The obvious example here would be all of the Hamas supporters who are rallying across the country,” he said.

An immigration task force organized by the conservative Heritage Foundation and led by a former Trump administration official proposed blocking Federal Emergency Management Agency grants to state and local agencies that refuse to cooperate with ICE enforcement operations, a standard that would presumably disqualify most or all California agencies.

The task force also proposed denying federal loans and grants to students at universities that allow undocumented migrants to pay in-state tuition, a rule that would affect UC and the Cal State systems.

It adds up to a recipe for a major collision with California, the state most out of step with Trump’s determination to rid the country of undocumented migrants.

None of this constitutes a defense of the Biden administration’s policies, which have failed to deter thousands of migrants from crossing the border and applying for asylum on often-dubious grounds.

But it’s worth remembering that only a few weeks ago, Trump ordered Republicans in Congress to kill a bipartisan bill that would have increased funding for immigration enforcement and raised the bar for asylum claims — because, as he admitted, he didn’t want to allow President Biden to appear as if he was fixing the problem.

When Trump was first elected in 2016, I wrote that on immigration policy, “His bark may prove worse than his bite.”

I was wrong. He turned out to be dead serious.

Trump’s promises of mass deportations and detention camps should be taken seriously — and literally, too.

“If he says he’s going to do it, believe him,” Salas said.

Biden considering major new executive actions for migrant crisis

Politico

Biden considering major new executive actions for migrant crisis

Myah Ward – February 21, 2024

The Biden administration is considering a string of new executive actions and federal regulations in an effort to curb migration at the U.S. southern border, according to three people familiar with the plans.

The proposals under consideration would represent a sweeping new approach to an issue that has stymied the White House since its first days in office and could potentially place the president at odds with key constituencies.

Among the ideas under discussion include using a section of the Immigration and Nationality Act to bar migrants from seeking asylum in between U.S. ports of entry. The administration is also discussing tying that directive to a trigger — meaning that it would only come into effect after a certain number of illegal crossings took place, said the three people, who were granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

A trigger mechanism was part of a bipartisan Senate border deal that never reached the floor earlier this month. During the deal’s construction, President Joe Biden repeatedly said it would have given him the authority to “shut down” the border.

The administration is also discussing ways to make it harder for migrants to pass the initial screening for asylum seekers, essentially raising the “credible fear standard,” as well as ways to quickly deport others who don’t meet those elevated asylum standards. Two of the people said the policy announcements could come as soon as next week ahead of President Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech on March 7.

The slate of policies could allow the administration officials to fill some of the void left after congressional Republicans killed a bipartisan border deal in the Senate. But it would also open up the administration to criticism that it always had the tools at its disposal to more fully address the migrant crisis but waited to use them.

No final decisions have been made about what executive actions, if any, could be taken, an administration official said, speaking about internal deliberations only on condition of anonymity. Administrations often explore a number of options, the official said, though it doesn’t necessarily mean the policies will come to fruition.

The consideration of new executive action comes as the White House tries to turn the border deal failure into a political advantage for the president. It also comes amid growing concern among Democrats that the southern border presents a profound election liability for the party. Officials hope that policy announcements will drive down numbers of migrants coming to the border and demonstrate to voters that they’re exhausting all options to try to solve the problem as peak migration season quickly approaches.

“The Administration spent months negotiating in good faith to deliver the toughest and fairest bipartisan border security bill in decades because we need Congress to make significant policy reforms and to provide additional funding to secure our border and fix our broken immigration system,” said White House spokesperson Angelo Fernández Hernández.

“No executive action, no matter how aggressive, can deliver the significant policy reforms and additional resources Congress can provide and that Republicans rejected,” he continued.

The three people familiar with the planning cautioned that the details of proposed actions remain murky and that the impact of the policies — particularly the asylum ban — is also dependent on the specific language of the federal regulation, they said. For example, the Senate bill included exceptions for unaccompanied minors and people who meet the requirements of the United Nations Convention Against Torture rules.

There are other complications as well. The implementation of any action from the White House would come without the funding and resources that could make implementation easier, though the administration is looking into ways to unlock additional funding. The actions would likely face legal challenges as well.

The Trump administration repeatedly used Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act to aggressively shape the immigration system. In late 2018, President Donald Trump signed a policy that temporarily barred migrants who tried to illegally cross into the U.S. outside of official ports of entry. It was quickly blocked by a federal judge in California. The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals agreed with the decision, which was then upheld by the Supreme Court.

The policies, once announced, will likely be met with steep backlash from immigration advocates who will claim the president is once again walking back on his campaign promises to rebuild a humane immigration system and protect the right to asylum.

Biden administration weighs taking actions without Congress to stem the migrant flow

NBC News

Biden administration weighs taking actions without Congress to stem the migrant flow

Julia Ainsley, Julie Tsirkin and Gabe Gutierrez – February 21, 2024

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is considering taking unilateral action without Congress to make it harder for migrants to pass the initial screening for asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border and quickly deport recently arrived migrants who don’t meet the criteria, say three U.S. officials with knowledge of the deliberations.

The actions, which are still weeks away from finalization, are an effort to lower the number of migrants crossing the southern border illegally as immigration remains a top issue for voters heading into the 2024 presidential election.

Under the new policies, asylum officers would be instructed to raise the standards they use in their “credible fear interviews,” the first screening given to asylum-seekers who are trying to avoid deportation for crossing the border illegally. And Immigration and Customs Enforcement would be told to prioritize recently arrived migrants for deportation, in a “last in, first out” policy, the officials said.

Hundreds of migrants arrive in Ciudad Juarez to cross into the United States before Title 42 ends (David Peinado Romero / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images file)

A congressional aide with knowledge of the deliberations said the Biden administration has yet to make a decision, but raising the bar on asylum and deporting more newly arrived migrants are considered “low hanging fruit” and actions that can be taken quickly.

The three U.S. officials said it is unclear whether the policies would be achieved through executive order or a new federal regulation, which could take months to implement.

Making it harder to claim asylum and fast-tracking migrants for deportation are not new ideas, but they are being considered more seriously as the Biden administration looks for ways to tamp down chaos at the border after Republicans blocked border security provisions in the National Security Supplemental bill earlier this month.

An administration official confirmed that the White House is exploring a series of policy options, but said that doesn’t guarantee any will come to pass.

In a statement, a White House spokesperson said, “The administration spent months negotiating in good faith to deliver the toughest and fairest bipartisan border security bill in decades. … Congressional Republicans chose to put partisan politics ahead of our national security. … No executive action, no matter how aggressive, can deliver the significant policy reforms and additional resources Congress can provide and that Republicans rejected.”

Without the bill, any action the president takes unilaterally will be limited in scope because the Department of Homeland Security is short on funding.

ICE is currently facing a budget shortfall of more than $500 million and may have to start cutting key services by May without more money from Congress, sources told NBC News last week.

One DHS official expressed skepticism over the “last in, first out” policy because it would leave millions of migrants already in the U.S., including thousands of homeless migrants in major cities, in a long legal limbo as their immigration cases are pushed to the back of the line.

A spokesperson for DHS emphasized that Congress should still act to avoid compromising border enforcement.

“If Congress once again refuses to provide the critical funding needed to support DHS’s vital missions, they would be harming DHS’s efforts to deliver tough and timely consequences to those who do not have a legal basis to remain in the country,” the spokesperson said. “There are real limits to what we can do given current funding because Congress has failed to pass a budget or respond to the President’s two supplemental budget requests. We again call on Congress to act and provide the funding and tools our frontline personnel need.”