‘Just brutal’: Why America’s hottest city is seeing a surge in deaths

Politico

‘Just brutal’: Why America’s hottest city is seeing a surge in deaths

Ariel Wittenberg – May 28, 2024

Summer burns in Phoenix.

Scorching pavement blisters uncovered skin. Pus oozes from burned feet and bacteria-teeming wounds fester under sweat-soaked bandages for people living on the street.

They might be the lucky ones.

Relentless heat led to 645 deaths last year in Maricopa County, the most ever documented in Arizona’s biggest metropolitan area. The soaring number of heat mortalities — a 1,000 percent increase over 10 years — comes as temperatures reach new highs amid exploding eviction rates in the Phoenix area, leading to a collision of homelessness and record-setting heat waves.

The crisis has left local officials searching for answers in a region that regularly relies on churches more than the government to save people’s lives by offering them a cool place to hide from the desert air.

Almost half of the victims last year were homeless — 290 people. Twenty died at bus stops, others were in tents, and an unrecorded number of people were found on the pavement, prone as if on a baking stone. More than 250 other people — who tended to be older, ill or unlucky — died in uncooled homes, on bikes or just going for a walk.

“There’s no getting away from it,” said George Roberts, who goes by “Country” and lived on the streets of Phoenix until a year ago. “You just try to find some shade and hope it keeps you cool enough to live.”

Phoenix officials are trying to reduce this year’s death count — but their fleeting plans hinge on temporary funding. They’re using nearly $2 million in federal pandemic-relief funding to operate new cooling centers. Unlike previous efforts, the centers will remain open into the evening, or even overnight, in areas with high heat death rates.

The splurge of one-time funds marks the first time there has been a significant federal investment to keep people safe from heat in America’s hottest city. Strapped-for-cash municipalities are often left to fend for themselves during withering heat waves.

Nowhere is that more true than in Phoenix, which is facing a collection of crises all at once: crashing budgets, rising homelessness and the prospects of a super-hot summer turbocharged by climate change.

It’s unclear what will happen to the new cooling centers when the pandemic funds run out in two years.

“We are lucky this year we have funding, but we need to be able to maintain that,” said Maricopa County Medical Director Rebecca Sunenshine. “It’s critical for people’s survival.”

‘Dog and pony show’

Phoenix’s heat safety net is struggling to save people, leaving officials who oversee the program bewildered at the lack of money as deaths soar.

With no stable federal funding, the location of cooling centers and bottled water distribution points changes each year, depending on whether fleeting resources will be provided by the city, county or state. Churches and local charities supplement government aid with their own donations of water and cool spaces.

That’s ludicrous, said David Hondula, Phoenix’s director of heat response and mitigation.

“Every winter in New England, are the churches trying to raise money to buy the snow plow? And then that’s the only snow plow the community has? I’m guessing not,” Hondula said in an interview.

Though heat has killed hundreds of people in Maricopa County every summer for the past four years, the idea that heat can be deadly is newly shocking to many decision-makers, said Melissa Guardaro, an extreme heat researcher at Arizona State University.

“Every year, we do a dog and pony show to cobble together funding,” she said. “Heat kills people who aren’t in the social circle of those in charge. And the people in power need to understand that it is through no fault of these vulnerable people that they are at risk.”

Last summer, there were about 117 cooling centers at libraries, community centers and churches throughout Maricopa County. But none of the centers in Phoenix were open overnight, when temperatures often remained above 90 degrees. Of the 17 centers operated by the city, just one was open Sundays — and only from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m.

Many private and public centers don’t allow pets, a rule that pushed some people to stay in the stifling heat with their dogs, according to surveys conducted by the county.

That’s flabbergasting to Austin Davis, who works with the homeless and in previous years has received grant funding to turn his personal minivan into a mobile cooling center.

“It’s like five months of complete crisis and danger for hundreds of people who don’t deserve to be in danger,” he said. “They’re told, ‘Well, church rules say we can’t have this person because they want to bring their dog.’”

“Well, this person and their dog might die today, then.”

Temperatures peaked above 110 degrees and rarely dipped lower than 95 at night for nearly 30 days in a row last July.

“It was just brutal, and it’s frustrating,” said Mark Bueno, outreach medical director for Circle the City, a nonprofit that provides health care to the homeless. Last summer, his doctors treated heat-caused dehydration, organ damage, pavement burns and rhabdomyolysis, a process of muscular breakdown linked to methamphetamine use.

“There’s a limit to what we can do for them,” he said. “I can give some extra water or an IV Bag, but it’s not going to solve the issue. What they really need is a house.”

The County Medical Examiner recorded 645 heat-related deaths last summer. Nearly 400 of them occurred in Phoenix, where half of all deaths were among the unhoused. One-third of all heat-related 911 calls in the city occurred outside of “regular business hours,” when cooling centers were closed.

“The consequences of not having extended-hour and overnight capacity became apparent last year,” said Hondula, the city’s heat official.

Pushed over the edge

Phoenix’s population is booming, making it the second-fastest growing U.S. city from 2021 to 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s also when heat deaths started to surge, after the U.S. Supreme Court ended a pandemic-era eviction moratorium, pushing more people onto the streets.

Now, heat is the second-biggest killer of homeless people in the county, behind drug overdoses. About 23 percent of homeless deaths are from heat alone, and another 18 percent involve both heat and drugs.

“So many people were living near the edge and got pushed over it,” said Jeff Johnston, chief medical examiner for Maricopa County, in an interview. “We’re still seeing the effects of that.”

The number of unhoused people in Maricopa County has doubled since 2017, hovering at roughly 9,600 people in January 2023. Rising rents have made the problem particularly stark in Phoenix, where in 2022 the number of people living on the street was nearly double the capacity of city-run homeless shelters.

In downtown Phoenix, a single encampment grew to an estimated 1,000 people in 2022, earning it the nickname “The Zone.” That same year, the city was sued twice over its treatment of homeless people.

First, businesses surrounding The Zone alleged the city was enabling a health and safety hazard by refusing to dismantle it, imperiling economic stability. In another lawsuit, a number of unhoused people represented by the American Civil Liberties Union alleged that city police were so aggressive in dismantling other homeless camps that they destroyed important documents like state I.D. cards and “survival items” like tents and bottled water. Those allegations were later included in a Department of Justice probe into the Phoenix Police Department.

“Both lawsuits were right,” said Elizabeth Venable, a homelessness advocate and plaintiff in one of the cases. “The city created the blight of The Zone by not addressing the homeless population in any way whatsoever. They didn’t build shelters, and they didn’t enforce anything, and it attracted everyone over there.”

Courts agreed. In summer 2023, as temperatures started to rise, the city was under dueling court orders to simultaneously begin clearing out The Zone before a mid-July court date, and preventing the city from enforcing no-camping ordinances and public sleeping bans against people who had nowhere else to go.

Venable believes the lawsuits may have helped save lives last summer by requiring the city to offer services to those being removed from The Zone. She hopes the city will be more proactive in helping its most vulnerable residents escape the heat this year, if only because they see it as “a liability.”

“A lot of people, even if they don’t empathize with people who live on the street or don’t want them to be able to camp out, they don’t really want them to literally bake on the sidewalk,” she said.

‘Surprising’ number of deaths

Hondula, the Phoenix heat official, is hoping a combination of data and federal cash can save lives — even if the city’s elected officials aren’t sold on his plan.

His team spent the winter looking at data from heat deaths and 911 calls to pinpoint city “hot spots” that will host new cooling centers this year.

Phoenix will operate two overnight cooling centers in the downtown area. In addition, three libraries will have respite centers with 50 beds each that will be open until 10 p.m. All the sites will be open seven days a week from May through September. Visitors will be steered toward services such as energy assistance, mental health, homeless shelters and substance abuse treatment programs.

“We are surging resources to these locations in the hopes that it helps people get out of the heat, but also get out of unsheltered homelessness,” Hondula said. “We are trying to solve the upstream challenges in addition to the immediate lifesaving mission.”

Not everyone in city leadership appreciates that plan. Though the City Council recognizes heat as a danger to residents, some members have questioned using city resources to protect the homeless.

At a February meeting, multiple councilors noted that libraries and senior centers have seen budget cuts, and said it wasn’t fair to open them to homeless people.

Councilman Jim Waring expressed disbelief that the program would lead to homeless people getting treatment for addiction or mental heath issues. The cooling initiative was taking resources away from tax-paying families, he said.

“Do I really think some hard-core meth addict is going to walk into the backroom of one of our libraries and turn [their life] around? No I don’t. That doesn’t seem realistic to me in any way,” Waring said. “I appreciate you guys are trying, but at some point we are crowding out the people who are paying for all of this and making their facilities less inviting.”

He did not respond to requests for comment.

The debate over which city residents deserve heat protection is on hold, for now, thanks to the American Rescue Plan. The federal Covid relief package passed in 2021 is funding half of the $3.5 million cost of operating the city’s cooling centers this summer, and the city has also relied on the measure to fund a shelter building blitz, expanding its number of beds by roughly 800 by next year. Maricopa County is also getting cooling money from the program.

“This is really the first time that there is significant federal funding in the heat relief network,” said Sunenshine, the county’s medical director.

But she worries about what will happen when the money disappears in 2026.

The high death toll last summer prompted soul-searching at the state level, resulting in a 55-page “Extreme Heat Preparedness Plan.” Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs hired a statewide cooling center coordinator and a chief heat officer.

“It was surprising to see the number of deaths in Maricopa County, which has the most resources,” said newly minted chief heat officer Eugene Livar, in an interview. “But with all those efforts in place there is always something more that can be done if we have resources for that expansion.”

Around the same time the pandemic funding runs out, the city will also lose $130 million in tax revenue due to a change in state law.

Hondula says he “can only hope” the city’s budget office will have found a solution by then.

CLARIFICATION: This story has been edited to use a more precise term to describe the effects of rhabdomyolysis.

Climate change caused 26 extra days of extreme heat in last year: report

AFP

Climate change caused 26 extra days of extreme heat in last year: report

AFP – May 28, 2024

Heat is the leading cause of climate-related death (Nhac NGUYEN)
Heat is the leading cause of climate-related death (Nhac NGUYEN)

The world experienced an average of 26 more days of extreme heat over the last 12 months that would probably not have occurred without climate change, a report said on Tuesday.

Heat is the leading cause of climate-related death and the report further points to the role of global warming in increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather around the world.

For this study, scientists used the years 1991 to 2020 to determine what temperatures counted as within the top 10 percent for each country over that period.

Next, they looked at the 12 months to May 15, 2024, to establish how many days over that period experienced temperatures within — or beyond — the previous range.

Then, using peer-reviewed methods, they examined the influence of climate change on each of these excessively hot days.

They concluded that “human-caused climate change added — on average, across all places in the world — 26 more days of extreme heat than there would have been without it”.

The report was published by the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the World Weather Attribution scientific network and the nonprofit research organisation Climate Central.

2023 was the hottest year on record, according to the European Union’s climate monitor, Copernicus.

Already this year, extreme heatwaves have afflicted swathes of the globe from Mexico to Pakistan.

The report said that in the last 12 months some 6.3 billion people — roughly 80 percent of the global population — experienced at least 31 days of what is classed as extreme heat.

In total, 76 extreme heatwaves were registered in 90 different countries on every continent except Antarctica.

Five of the most affected nations were in Latin America.

The report said that without the influence of climate change, Suriname would have recorded an estimated 24 extreme heat days instead of 182; Ecuador 10 not 180; Guyana 33 not 174, El Salvador 15 not 163; and Panama 12 not 149.

“(Extreme heat) is known to have killed tens of thousands of people over the last 12 months but the real number is likely in the hundreds of thousands or even millions,” the Red Cross said in a statement.

“Flooding and hurricanes may capture the headlines but the impacts of extreme heat are equally deadly,” said Jagan Chapagain, secretary general of the International Federation of the Red Cross.

In this far-flung Arizona neighborhood, residents dream of the arrival of a gas station or grocery store

AZ Central – The Arizona Republic

In this far-flung Arizona neighborhood, residents dream of the arrival of a gas station or grocery store

Alexandra Hardle, Arizona Republic – May 28, 2024

Terrell Hannah and his family enjoy living in Tartesso, a master-planned community in northwest Buckeye. But when he needs to fill up his car or get a gallon of milk, he does wish that it came with basic city amenities.

Like a gas station or a grocery store. The nearest gas station is 15 minutes away; the nearest Walmart, 15 minutes away; the nearest Costco, 20 minutes away.

Hannah and his wife also have two young children and drive them about 25 minutes to school near downtown Buckeye. On top of that, Hannah has a 35- to 45-minute commute to Luke Air Force, where he works.

Hannah, who moved into the community in 2022, said he likes the residential feel.

“One of the attractive features of that neighborhood is that it’s away from all of the heavy industry that is really coming up at every corner in Phoenix,” Hannah said.

Realtor Martin Partida has been a Tartesso resident since 2020. He and his family moved from Phoenix because they wanted to live somewhere quieter, and Tartesso fit the bill. Partida said he also needs to drive about 15 minutes to get to the nearest grocery store or gas station.

A big frustration among Tartesso residents has been the pace of development. The community now has about 10,000 residents and 3,400 houses but so few amenities, they say.

Many residents feel Tartesso has been left out as other areas of the city develop more quickly.

“When we compare what we have to other communities that have been developed like Verrado, it just seems unbalanced. We’re not sure why it’s taking so long to get things moving out here,” Partida said.

Partida said he also hopes for a high school to be built. Currently, Tartesso’s schools only go to the fifth grade. It also would be nice to have a recreational center in Tartesso, Partida said.

Residents also hope for coffee shops, jobs

Cameron James has lived in Tartesso since 2009. At this point, James said he and other residents are used to commuting for work and stopping at places like Costco on the way home.

“You get used to it after about a year. I mean, we feel spoiled now because we have food trucks,” James said.

James said he understands why the community needs more rooftops before commercial development follows.

Paige Stein, who works in the hospitality industry in Goodyear, has lived in Tartesso for about four years after moving from from Festival Foothills neighborhood, also in Buckeye. Stein said she and her family always have preferred to live in places that are more isolated.

Southwest Valley: Buckeye panel pitches almost $300M in bonds for public safety, roads and parks

Stein said the most important thing to her is that more jobs come to Tartesso for the people who live there, particularly young people still at home with their parents who don’t have the option to move. Stein currently commutes about 30 minutes to her job in Goodyear.

“I don’t see that as something that someone just getting out of school should have to do,” Stein said.

After a gas station, she would like Tartesso to get a coffee shop.

“Something where the students that get out of school can go hang out, so they don’t have to go straight home or hang out in the heat,” Stein said.

Stein said she currently spends a lot of her free time in Tempe to go to new shops and favorite places.

Residents hope for less industrial development

Chris Barr, principal of Buckeye Tartesso LLC, said he hears the complaints. A controversial new rezoning of land to industrial from residential is part of a potential solution, he said. The change axed some 6,000 planned homes.

While some residents are skeptical and hope the plan shifts away from industrial zoning, adding jobs is necessary for creating both rooftops and the commercial and retail development Tartesso residents are asking for, Barr said.

Accelerating economic growth will in turn accelerate the growth of community amenities, including grocery stores and gas stations, he said.

Tartesso, along the southwestern part of the Sun Valley Parkway, is projected to have about 100,000 residents at build-out.

Hundreds of thousands of residents eventually will live along Sun Valley Parkway, Barr said. It once was known as the “Road to Nowhere,” with not much around it. But communities are slowly growing, including Festival Ranch along the northern part of the parkway.

A vast majority of Buckeye’s residents commute east for work. Barr hopes to change that by adding more employment opportunities along the parkway.

The Tartesso community development borders the desert in Buckeye. It's one of the last noticeable developments on the way out of the Phoenix area.
The Tartesso community development borders the desert in Buckeye. It’s one of the last noticeable developments on the way out of the Phoenix area.

Obtaining the necessary certificates for industrial development is easier than getting approval for residential from a water standpoint. But Barr said that’s not the reason the land was rezoned.

“We just wanted to create some employment opportunities and really good-paying jobs for people in that region that don’t want to hop on the freeway and potentially have to leave the city of Buckeye to drive to and from their job every day,” Barr said.

Tartesso LLC bought the development in 2016. When Barr came in, the community was still recovering from the Great Recession, which had greatly slowed down growth, Barr said. Right now, Barr said the focus is on housing, which will later bring in retail amenities.

While some land is zoned for commercial use and was purchased years ago, Barr said many projects were halted by the recession.

“They had a lot of rooftop projections that took a long time to materialize because the market got effectively shut down for a couple of years,” Barr said.

Ultimately, it is up to the purchasers of the land to decide what to do with it and when. Additional amenities like a recreation center also would come with additional HOA fees, and not everyone would be happy to pay those.

“The demand is, we need affordable housing in the Valley. And we’ve got a big problem staring us down if we don’t come to some solutions that allow for building on Sun Valley Parkway, which is going to be a great place for affordable housing,” Barr said.

In a statement to The Arizona Republic, a Buckeye spokesperson said the city’s development teams were actively collaborating with brokers, developers and service providers to attract growth in Buckeye, including in Tartesso and Festival Ranch.

“While commercial development is currently thriving in the eastern parts of Buckeye, our growth trajectory is set to extend westward along Sun Valley Parkway. This will foster expansion and development in those areas,” the city statement said. “This growth trajectory is already attracting new investment, including a recent commitment from QT (QuikTrip) to develop a new location south of Tartesso.”

What’s still to come at Tartesso?

The QuikTrip announcement means Tartesso residents’ wishes for a gas station soon will come true, although a timeline for the opening was not set.

The gas station will be located about a mile from the community’s main entrance. The nearest gas station is currently a Love’s Travel Shop located nearly 10 miles away from Tartesso on Miller Road.

As for what’s next aside from industrial development, Barr said Tartesso currently has applications for certificates of assured water supply pending with the Department of Water Resources for about 5,700 homes.

Those certificates are necessary for the next phase of construction to begin.

Barr said Tartesso has begun discussions with major builders for those homes. Once the development figures out its water certificates, Barr said the launch would be relatively quick.

And those homes, combined with new jobs to the area, should make way for the amenities that Tartesso residents have been asking for, such as grocery stores, more gas stations, movie theaters and hospitals, most of which look to have a certain number of rooftops within a certain radius.

“I don’t think we’re quite there,” Barr said. “But I believe activity breeds more activity.”

Temperatures in Pakistan cross 52 degrees Celsius — that’s more than 125°F

CNN

Temperatures in Pakistan cross 52 degrees Celsius — that’s more than 125°F

Reuters – May 28, 2024

Temperatures rose above 52 degrees Celsius (125.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in Pakistan’s southern province of Sindh, the highest reading of the summer and close to the country’s record high amid an ongoing heat wave, the met office said on Monday.

Extreme temperatures throughout Asia over the past month were made worse most likely as a result of human-driven climate change, a team of international scientists have said.

In Mohenjo Daro, a town in Sindh known for archaeological sites that date back to the Indus Valley Civilization built in 2500 BC, temperatures rose as high as 52.2 C (126 F) over the last 24 hours, a senior official of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Shahid Abbas told Reuters.

The reading is the highest of the summer so far, and approached the town’s and country’s record highs of 53.5 C (128.3 F) and 54 C (129.2 F) respectively.

Mohenjo Daro is a small town that experiences extremely hot summers and mild winters, and low rainfall, but its limited markets, including bakeries, tea shops, mechanics, electronic repair shops, and fruit and vegetable sellers, are usually bustling with customers.

But with the current heat wave, shops are seeing almost no footfall.

A vendor selling ice, slices a piece from an ice block for a customer at his shop on a hot summer noon in in Karachi on May 27, 2024. - Rizwan Tabassum/AFP/Getty Images
A vendor selling ice, slices a piece from an ice block for a customer at his shop on a hot summer noon in in Karachi on May 27, 2024. – Rizwan Tabassum/AFP/Getty Images

“The customers are not coming to the restaurant because of extreme heat. I sit idle at the restaurant with these tables and chairs and without any customers,” Wajid Ali, 32, who owns a tea stall in the town.

“I take baths several times a day which gives me a little relief. Also there is no power. The heat has made us very uneasy.”

Close to Ali’s shop is an electronic repairs shop run by Abdul Khaliq, 30, who was sat working with the shop’s shutter half down to shield him from the sun. Khaliq also complained about the heat affecting business.

Local doctor Mushtaq Ahmed added that the locals have adjusted to living in the extreme weather conditions and prefer staying indoors or near water.

“Pakistan is the fifth most vulnerable country to the impact of climate change. We have witnessed above normal rains, floods,” Rubina Khursheed Alam, the prime minister’s coordinator on climate, said at a news conference on Friday adding that the government is running awareness campaigns due to the heat waves.

The highest temperature recorded in Pakistan was in 2017 when temperatures rose to 54 C (129.2 F) in the city of Turbat, located in the Southwestern province of Balochistan. This was the second hottest in Asia and fourth highest in the world, said Sardar Sarfaraz, Chief Meteorologist at the Pakistan Meteorological Department

The heat wave will subside in Mohenjo Daro and surrounding areas, but another spell is expected to hit other areas in Sindh, including the capital, Karachi — Pakistan’s largest city.

Real estate agents are fleeing the field. Is that good for homebuyers?

The Washington Post

Real estate agents are fleeing the field. Is that good for homebuyers?

Aaron Gregg – May 28, 2024

New home concept portrayed by a female holding front door keys in front of a newly built house. (malamus-UK via Getty Images)

When real estate broker April Strickland looks at her local housing market in Gainesville, Fla., she sees a mismatch. Industry data show that only a few hundred homes are sold each month, she said, yet there are more than 1,500 local Realtors.

Strickland has seen the ups and downs of the housing market since 1995, when she started managing her parents’ rental properties as a teenager. But she says the business environment of the past two years is the most challenging she can remember – slower even than the years following the 2008 financial crisis.

“Quite frankly, Realtors are running out of money,” Strickland said.

An industry that swelled with newcomers in 2020 and 2021 has recently experienced a harsh slowdown – leaving the field no choice but to downsize, experts say. One widely cited analysis predicts as many as 80 percent of the country’s real estate agents could find a new line of work.

“Many industry leaders think there are way too many agents and would like to reduce the number so the professionals can service more clients, thus allowing a reduction in commission levels in order to maintain current incomes,” said Steve Brobeck, a senior fellow at the Consumer Federation of America.

By some measures, the exodus has already begun.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded 440,000 full-time real estate agents and brokers in 2023, about 72,000 less than the year before.

As of mid-April, the National Association of Realtors had about 1.5 million agents registered. That’s down more than 100,000 from 2022, according to Nick Gerli of the real estate data firm Reventure Consulting.

The Realtor group, which recently stopped publishing its membership figures, declined to comment for this story. But earlier this year, Gerli, citing monthly reports that were published by the trade association, said NAR anticipates declines in Realtor membership for the next 24 months.

With interest rates remaining relatively high, deals have become so scarce that many Realtors now sell only a few homes a year. A survey of about 2,000 real estate agents conducted by the Consumer Federation of America found that 49 percent of them sold fewer than two homes in 2023. And Realtors will soon face new rules that could result in sweeping changes to how they do business and how they get paid.

Under the new rules starting in August, real estate databases no longer will include offers of compensation for buyers’ agents. That means those agents can no longer count on a cut of the seller’s windfall. Investment bank Keefe Bruyette & Woods has estimated that as much as 30 percent of the total U.S. commissions revenue might be lost as a result.

The rules are the result of a court settlement between the NAR and groups of home sellers who said the commissions structure violated antitrust laws. A federal court temporarily approved the settlement and will consider making the approval permanent in November. And the pressure on the industry could continue  an April court decision cleared the Justice Department to reopen an earlier antitrust probe into the NAR and its rules for commissions.

Economists who study the real estate sector have long believed that a “decoupling” of buyer and seller commissions will convince a significant number of Realtors to abandon the field, though estimates vary as to how many.

The forecast by Keefe Bruyette & Woods projected that changes to the commission structure could cause 60 to 80 percent of U.S. Realtors to leave the profession.

CUNY Baruch College’s Sonia Gilbukh and Yale School of Management’s Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham estimated that about 56 percent of agents would exit the market if one side’s commission remained at 3 percent while the other became competitive, Gilbukh said in an email describing the study. A 2015 paper in the Rand Journal of Economics by Panle Jia Barwick and Parag Pathak predicted that a 50 percent reduction in commissions would result in 40 percent fewer agents.

Experts see a silver lining in a potential exodus of Realtors: Those who remain might be more experienced and competent. “This will be good for consumers because agents on average will be better at their job and will charge more competitive commissions,” Gilbukh said.

A “Realtor glut” has persisted since the industry’s pandemic high point, said Brobeck, who also sees a departure of real estate agents as probably a good thing for home buyers.

Another Bureau of Labor Statistics measure that includes part-timers shows 1.8 million people working in the real estate sector as of April 2024, up slightly from last year. But with so many of them doing relatively little business and holding other full-time jobs, selling homes at this point is “clearly a part-time industry,” Brobeck wrote in a recent report .

Under the rules coming in August, agents will feel more pressure to justify their compensation, Brobeck said, because buyers will be more likely to press for a lower commission. That should also create space for discount brokers serving first-time buyers, he said.

“As this occurs, residential real estate markets will become more diverse and competitive,” Brobeck said.

Gilbukh, the CUNY researcher, believes that only the most experienced agents will be able to keep charging high commissions.

Agents that survive the upcoming transition are likely to be better connected within their industry, having deeper relationships with professionals such as contractors, electricians, plumbers and appraisers, and “overall better poised to advise their clients,” Gilbukh said.

Contracts under the proposed new rules should bring more clarity to the relationship between buyers and their agents, several analysts said. That could cut down on “ghosting” incidents, in which prospective home buyers will talk to an agent while searching for a home, only to finalize the deal with a different agent, or put their housing search on hold.

“Previously there was no real sense of accountability, where Realtors didn’t really have to explain what they do,” Strickland said.

The proposed NAR deal was met with fear throughout the industry when it was announced in MarchStrickland said. But the panic has given way to a “wait-and-see” attitude, she said.

She characterized the NAR deal as a positive thing overall:

“It will eliminate people who quite frankly aren’t up to snuff, who can’t do the work, who don’t want to educate themselves and learn new ways or working. … This will be a good pivot for our industry.”

– – –

Lauren Kaori Gurley contributed to this report.

La Niña could mean an active hurricane season. Here’s what it means for Texas this summer

Austin American Statesman

La Niña could mean an active hurricane season. Here’s what it means for Texas this summer

Marley Malenfant , Austin American-Statesman – May 27, 2024

Summer is coming, and so is La Niña.

According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 49% chance of La Niña developing between June and August this year, and forecasters say it will create conditions for an ‘above-normal’ hurricane season in Texas.

What is La Niña?

La Niña, which means “little girl” in Spanish, is a climate phenomenon characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña and its opposite, El Niño, as well as a neutral phase, are part of a larger climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The tropical Pacific can be in either one of those three states.

According to scientists, El Niño years tend to bring cold, wet winters to California and the southern U.S. but warm, dry conditions to the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley. La Niña tends to bring the opposite: dry conditions for the whole southern half of the country but colder, wetter weather for the Pacific Northwest.

La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern.
La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern.
How does La Niña affect Texas weather?

La Niña has a notable impact on Texas weather, primarily influencing temperature and precipitation patterns. Here’s how La Niña typically affects Texas, according to NOAA:

  1. Temperature: La Niña often brings warmer-than-average temperatures to Texas during the winter months. The warmer conditions are a result of the jet stream shifting northward, reducing the frequency of cold air masses moving into the region. Summers during La Niña years can also be hotter than normal, with higher heatwaves and increasing demand for water and energy.
  2. Precipitation: La Niña is usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions across Texas, particularly in the fall and winter months. The northward shift of the jet stream tends to divert storm systems away from the state, reducing the overall rainfall. The reduced precipitation can lead to an increased risk of drought. Texas may experience significant water shortages, affecting agriculture and water supply and increasing the likelihood of wildfires.
  3. Severe weather: Due to warmer temperatures during La Niña winters, the likelihood of severe weather, such as snow and ice storms, is generally lower. However, La Niña can increase severe weather events like tornadoes in Texas due to enhanced instability and favorable atmospheric conditions.
  4. Hurricane season: La Niña can contribute to a more active Atlantic hurricane season. This means Texas might face a higher risk of hurricanes and tropical storms making landfall, bringing heavy rainfall and potential flooding. The NOAA predicts between 17 and 25 named storms this season, with 4 to 7 becoming major hurricanes classified as category 3, 4, or 5.

Texas weather: NOAA predicts ‘above-normal’ 2024 hurricane season in new outlook

When to expect La Niña

The NOAA predicts a 49% chance of La Niña developing between June and August and a 69% chance between July and September.

The Start of La Niña
The Start of La Niña

Extreme heat hits Texas and Florida early in the season

NBC News

Extreme heat hits Texas and Florida early in the season

Denise Chow – May 22, 2024

Jason Fochtman

Scorching heat and humidity have descended over parts of Texas, the Gulf Coast and South Florida this week — a bout of early-season extreme heat that has experts bracing for what’s to come.

A full month before the official start of summer, Miami is already in the midst of its hottest May on record, according to experts.

The city’s heat index — a measure of what conditions feel like when humidity and air temperatures are combined — hit 112 degrees Fahrenheit over the weekend, smashing the previous daily record by 11 degrees, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami. The weekend heat index also beat Miami’s monthly record by 5 degrees, he wrote in a post on X.

Last summer was the hottest on record for Miami — and the entire planet. Forecasters say the coming season could match or surpass the temperatures seen in 2023.

Miami’s recent 112-degree heat index reading was recorded both Saturday and Sunday, marking only the second time in the city’s recorded history that there have been back-to-back days of heat index values at or above that level, according to McNoldy. The other instance was Aug. 8 and 9, 2023.

“But it’s only mid-May!” he wrote. “To anyone who was hoping 2023 was a freak anomaly: nope.”

Miami has already expanded the time period it considers to be the official heat season to span from May 1 to Oct. 31 annually — a response to earlier onsets of high heat and humidity.

Meanwhile, a heat advisory is in effect across much of south Texas. Temperatures up to 113 degrees can be expected in some places, particularly along the Rio Grande, according to the National Weather Service.

The agency said heat index values between 110 degrees and 120 degrees are expected this week, with still more dangerous heat lingering into the weekend.

“As a result, major to extreme risks of heat-related impacts are expected across South Texas,” the weather service said in its advisory. “Be sure to stay cool, drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks if you are spending time outside!”

High heat and humidity, including heat indexes around 100 degrees, are also expected in Houston in the coming days. The city is still reeling from last week’s deadly storms, with tens of thousands of residents still without power.

Studies have shown that climate change is making early-season heat more likely, in addition to fueling more frequent, intense and longer-lasting heat waves.

The consequences can be deadly. Heat kills more people each year in the United States than any other weather disaster, according to the weather service.

It’s the hottest May ever in Miami. Heat index ‘completely off the charts’

Miami Herald

It’s the hottest May ever in Miami. Heat index ‘completely off the charts’

Ashley Miznazi – May 21, 2024

It’s already the hottest May in Miami, ever — at least judging by the heat index, a “feels like” measure that combines temperature and humidity.

Last weekend’s record temps jacked up the average heat index into a record for May, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science.

“The type of heat and humidity we had this weekend would’ve been exceptional even in another three months,” said McNoldy. “These temperatures in May are completely off the charts.”

McNoldy created an online chart that updates daily with the cumulative amount of time the heat index spent above various heat index thresholds. The reading in 2024 already rivals or tops nearly all end-of-summer 108°+ and 110°+ marks.

Brian McNoldy: Aside from crazy-2023, the heat index has ALREADY spent more time above the 108°F threshold (and tied for the most at 110°+) in #Miami than in *any other entire year*. And it’s not even June yet

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Usually, the hottest time of the year is the first and second weeks of August but this weekend temperatures peaked at 112 degrees heat index— that’s a stunning six degrees hotter than any previous May heat index recorded.

Early-season heat events have some of the highest rates of heat illness and heat-related deaths because people are not prepared for it. Nearly 1,200 people die from heat every year, according to NOAA, and record-breaking heat waves fueled by climate change add to that threat.

Margaret Pianelli, a tourist from New York, visits the Hollywood Beach Broadwalk as temperatures soar into the 90s on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, in Hollywood, Fla.
Margaret Pianelli, a tourist from New York, visits the Hollywood Beach Broadwalk as temperatures soar into the 90s on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, in Hollywood, Fla.

READ MORE: When is it too hot to be outside? A new online tool will help you plan your week

Climate change makes things like these record highs more likely. But over the weekend McNoldy said there was also the “perfect combination” of a high pressure ridge (where air sinks and warms), fewer clouds and moist air coming in from the southwest.

Other records were broken over the weekend too. Sunday’s nighttime temperatures averaged (the average of the high and low temperature) to 89 degrees. That is a tie for the third-highest daily nighttime average temperature ever recorded in Miami, and that’s never happened as soon as May.

As of Monday, there had also been four new high daily average temperature records and record-high humidity levels in the past five days.

The National Weather Service is predicting that the record-breaking heat will ease in the coming week, thanks in part to the increasing relief of rain. But it also signals the potential for another scorching summer ahead. Summer 2023 was the hottest on record in Miami.

“What this looks like for June, July, August? Who knows,” McNoldy said. “But it’s not off to a promising start.”

Ashley Miznazi is a climate change reporter for the Miami Herald funded by the Lynn and Louis Wolfson II Family Foundation in partnership with Journalism Funding Partners.

Cities look for new ways to keep people safe — and alive — as extreme summer heat looms

NBC News

Cities look for new ways to keep people safe — and alive — as extreme summer heat looms

Denise Chow –  May 16, 2024

More than five weeks remain before summer’s official start, but preparations for extreme heat have been underway for many months in parts of the country hit hard by last year’s sweltering conditions.

“We prepare for heat year-round in Phoenix,” Mayor Kate Gallego said. “It’s something that we know is coming, so we have to think about it even on the coldest day of the year.”

But last summer was especially severe — Phoenix, for example, endured 31 consecutive days of high temperatures at or above 110 degrees Fahrenheit, the city breaking a previous record of 18 days set in 1974. At least 645 people in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, died from heat-related causes in 2023, a 52% increase over the previous year, according to the county’s Health Department.

The 2023 heat waves revealed how challenging it can be to cope with extreme temperatures for weeks on end, even in places where residents are accustomed to warm weather. And the months ahead are expected to be just as hot — if not hotter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that based on global temperatures so far, 2024 will rank among the five warmest years in recorded history and has a 61% chance of being the hottest on record.

That has prompted cities across the South and the Southwest to re-evaluate how best to keep people safe — and alive — this summer. Some have launched new initiatives aimed at increasing shade in public spaces, strengthening health care systems to deal with victims of heat waves and doing outreach with outdoor workers, homeless populations and other vulnerable communities.

Gallego said Phoenix has been creating “cool corridors” by planting trees and resurfacing the pavement with more reflective coatings to reduce urban heat. A primary focus right now is mitigating high overnight temperatures, which plagued the city last summer.

“We were getting low temperatures that were setting records for how hot they were,” she said. “That’s really pushing us to focus on how we design the city — what materials we use and how we protect open spaces, which tend to dissipate heat at night.”

extreme heat help water hot weather (Matt York / AP file)
extreme heat help water hot weather (Matt York / AP file)

In Florida’s Miami-Dade County, chief heat officer Jane Gilbert said a key priority is channeling resources to protect residents who are most vulnerable to temperature spikes.

“It’s people who can’t stay cool at home affordably, it’s people who have to work outside, it’s the elderly, it’s people who have to take a bus on a route where they might have to wait at an unsheltered stop for over an hour in that heat,” she said.

To that end, the county’s Transportation Department installed 150 new bus shelters last year and is expected to add 150 more this year, according to Gilbert. With a $10 million grant from the Inflation Reduction Act, the office is also planting trees along roads maintained by the county and the state to increase shade.

Gilbert’s team has focused on raising awareness among renters and homeowners about affordable ways to cool their spaces. Her office also tries to educate employers about the importance of protecting their workers and holds training programs for health care practitioners, homeless outreach workers and summer camp providers.

Nationally, heat kills more people than any other extreme weather event; it’s often referred to as a “silent killer” because heat’s impact on the human body is not always obvious.

“When a hurricane hits or a wildfire comes through, there’s no doubt about what just happened, but heat is more difficult because, for the most part, we don’t have those same context clues in our environment until it gets so extreme,” said Ashley Ward, director of the Heat Policy Innovation Hub at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability.

Ward and her colleagues specialize in “heat governance,” helping local and state governments prepare for extreme heat events. The work includes finding ways to mitigate heat and develop emergency responses for major heat waves.

heatwave heat profile water break keep cool (Mario Tama / Getty Images file)
heatwave heat profile water break keep cool (Mario Tama / Getty Images file)

In North Carolina, for example, Ward and her colleagues have helped counties craft heat action plans to identify their most vulnerable populations.

She said government officials should treat onslaughts of high heat and humidity similar to hurricanes, tornadoes and other disasters.

“People in emergency management and public health have a lot of structures in place already for all kinds of other extreme weather events, but not so much for heat,” Ward said.

Last summer was a wake-up call, she added.

“That was our category 5 heat event,” Ward said. “The extreme nature of what we saw last summer was enough to focus attention on this topic.”

Climate change is increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves around the world, studies show. Last year was the planet’s hottest on record, and the warming trend continues. April was the 11th consecutive month with record-breaking global temperatures, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

In much of the U.S., temperatures over the next three months are expected to be above average, according to NOAA.

Ward said that it’s heartening to see cities take extreme heat seriously but emphasized that major challenges lie ahead. For one, preparing early for extreme heat requires funding, which is a major challenge, especially for rural communities.

Even trickier will be addressing the underlying social issues that get magnified during heat waves, such as homelessness, rising energy costs and economic inequality.

Ward is optimistic, though, that last summer’s experience has catalyzed some local governments to act.

“What I hope we see going forward is more emphasis on what we can do to reduce those exposures to begin with,” she said, “so that we’re not constantly in response mode.”

Report: Trump may face a $100 million-plus tax bill if he loses IRS audit fight over Chicago tower

Associated Press

Report: Trump may face a $100 million-plus tax bill if he loses IRS audit fight over Chicago tower

Josh Boaks – May 11, 2024

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on Wednesday, May 1, 2024, at the Waukesha County Expo Center in Waukesha, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump may face an IRS bill in excess of $100 million after a government audit indicates he double-dipped on tax losses tied to a Chicago skyscraper, according to a report by The New York Times and ProPublica that drew on a yearslong audit and public filings.

The report’s findings could put renewed focus on Trump’s business career as the presumptive Republican nominee tries to regain the White House after losing in 2020.

Trump used his cachet as a real estate developer and TV star to build a political movement, yet he has refused to release his tax filings as past presidential candidates have. The tax filings that the public does know about have come from past reporting by the Times and a public release of records by Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee in 2022.

Trump’s presidential campaign provided a statement in son Eric Trump‘s name saying the IRS inquiry “was settled years ago, only to be brought back to life once my father ran for office. We are confident in our position.”

The tax records cited by the report indicate that Trump twice deducted losses on the Trump International Hotel and Tower, which opened in 2009 near the banks of the Chicago River that cuts through that city’s downtown.

The report said Trump initially reported losses of $658 million in his 2008 filings under the premise that the property fit the IRS definition of being “worthless” because condominium sales were disappointing and retail space went unfilled amid a deep U.S. recession.

But in 2010, the published report said, Trump transferred the ownership of the property to a different holding company that he also controlled, using the move to save money on taxes by reporting an additional $168 million in losses over the next decade on the same property.

The report did not have any updates on the status of the IRS inquiry since December 2022, but said Trump could owe more than $100 million, including penalties, if he were to lose the audit battle.

Trump, meanwhile, is appealing a New York judge’s ruling from February after a civil trial that Trump, his company and top executives lied about his wealth on financial statements, conning bankers and insurers who did business with him. In early April, Trump posted a $175 million bond, halting collection of the more than $454 million he owes from the judgment and preventing the state from seizing his assets to satisfy the debt while he appeals.

Democrat President Joe Biden has said that Trump largely owes his fortune to an inheritance from his father, rather than through his own financial acumen. Biden has gone after Trump for not wanting to pay taxes, while his administration has increased IRS funding in order to increase audits of the ultra-wealthy and improve compliance with the federal tax code.

The Trump campaign opposes the additional funding that Biden and Democrats provided to the IRS. At campaign rallies, Trump has said the United States would be destroyed as a country unless his 2017 tax cuts that are largely set to expire after 2025 are extended.