Russia pounds Ukraine, targeting supply of Western arms

Air Force Times

Russia pounds Ukraine, targeting supply of Western arms

Jon Gambrell, Cara Anna, The Associated Press – May 4, 2022

LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces pounded targets across Ukraine, taking aim at supply lines for foreign weapons in the west and intensifying an offensive in the east, as the European Union moved Wednesday to further punish Moscow for the war with a proposed ban on oil imports.

The Russian military said Wednesday it used sea- and air-launched precision guided missiles to destroy electric power facilities at five railway stations across Ukraine, while artillery and aircraft also struck troop strongholds and fuel and ammunition depots.

The defense minister repeated that Russian forces have blocked off a steel mill in Mariupol from which scores of civilians were evacuated over the weekend. Another official denied they were storming the plant, as its defenders said a day earlier.

Ukrainian authorities, meanwhile, said attacks in the eastern Donbas region left 21 civilians dead.

The flurry of attacks over the past day comes as Russia prepares to celebrate Victory Day on May 9, marking the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany. This year the world is watching for whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will use the occasion to declare a limited victory — or expand what he calls a “special military operation” to a wider war.

A declaration of all-out war would allow Putin to introduce martial law and mobilize reservists to replace what Western officials say have been significant troop losses.

This satellite image taken by Planet Labs PBC shows smoke rising at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, Ukraine, Wednesday, May 4, 2022. Russian forces began storming the bombed-out steel mill in Mariupol on Tuesday, May 3, 2022. The renewed push to take the mill came after scores of civilians were evacuated from the plant's underground tunnels after enduring weeks of shelling. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
This satellite image taken by Planet Labs PBC shows smoke rising at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, Ukraine, Wednesday, May 4, 2022. Russian forces began storming the bombed-out steel mill in Mariupol on Tuesday, May 3, 2022. The renewed push to take the mill came after scores of civilians were evacuated from the plant’s underground tunnels after enduring weeks of shelling. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday dismissed the speculation as “untrue” and “nonsense.”

As areas across Ukraine came under renewed attack, Belarus, which Russia used as a staging ground for its invasion, announced military drills. The Defense Ministry in Minsk said the exercises that began Wednesday don’t threaten any neighbors but a top Ukrainian official the country will be ready to act if Belarus joins the fighting.

While the Russian attacks were across a wide swath of Ukraine, some were concentrated in and around Lviv, the western city close to the Polish border that has been a gateway for NATO-supplied weapons.

Explosions were heard late Tuesday in the city, which has seen only sporadic attacks during the war and has become a haven for civilians fleeing the fighting elsewhere. The mayor said the strikes damaged three power substations, knocking out electricity in parts of the city and disrupting the water supply. Two people were wounded.

The attacks on rail infrastructure were meant to disrupt the delivery of Western weapons, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said, while his boss, Minister Sergei Shoigu, told top military brass that the West was “stuffing Ukraine with weapons.”

Western weaponry pouring into Ukraine helped its forces blunt Russia’s initial offensive and seems certain to play a central role in the battle for the Donbas, which Moscow now says is its focus following its failure to take Kyiv in the early weeks of the war.

Ukraine has urged the West to ramp up the supply of weapons ahead of that potentially decisive battle. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, which had been slow at first to help arm Ukraine, said Wednesday his government is considering supplying Ukraine with howitzers, in addition to Gepard anti-aircraft guns and other equipment it has already agreed to send.

A Ukrainian army soldier stands guard at the war-damaged Irpinsky Lipky residential complex following the visit of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on April 28, 2022, in Irpin, Ukraine. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)
A Ukrainian army soldier stands guard at the war-damaged Irpinsky Lipky residential complex following the visit of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on April 28, 2022, in Irpin, Ukraine. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

The governor of the eastern Donetsk region, which lies in the Donbas, said Russian attacks left 21 dead on Tuesday, the highest number of known fatalities since April 8, when a missile attack on the railway station in Kramatorsk killed at least 59 people.

Russia has deployed a significant number of troops in the region and appears to be trying to advance in the north, as they try to cut Ukrainian forces off, according to an assessment from the British Defense Ministry. However, Moscow’s push has been slow as Ukrainian fighters dig in and use long-range weapons to target the Russians.

In addition to supplying weapons to Ukraine, Europe and the United States have sought to punish Moscow with sanctions. The EU’s top official called on the 27-nation bloc on Wednesday to ban Russian oil imports.

“We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimizes the impact on global markets,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

The proposals need unanimous approval from EU countries and are likely to be the subject of fierce debate. Hungary and Slovakia have already said they won’t take part in any oil sanctions, but von der Leyen didn’t elaborate on whether they would receive an exemption, which appears likely.

Von der Leyen also proposed that Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, and two other major banks be disconnected from the SWIFT international banking payment system.

On Tuesday, in one of the most crucial battles of the war, Ukrainian fighters said Russian forces began storming the bombed-out steel mill in Mariupol, the last pocket of resistance in the city. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday that was not true.

“There is no assault. We see that there are cases of escalation due to the fact that the militants take up the firing positions. These attempts are being suppressed very quickly,” Peskov said.

Shoigu, the defense minister, said that fighters at the Azovstal mill have been “securely blocked” inside, while Russian forces continue to demand their surrender — something they have repeatedly refused to do.

Over the weekend, however, scores of civilians were successfully evacuated from the plant’s underground tunnels after enduring weeks of shelling.

It is unclear how many Ukrainian fighters are still inside, but the Russians put the number at about 2,000 in recent weeks, and 500 were reported to be wounded. A few hundred civilians also remained there, said Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.

Officials have expressed hope more people could yet be evacuated. No new rescues from the plant have been announced, but Vereshchuk said Wednesday authorities plan to continue efforts to evacuate civilians from Mariupol and nearby areas if the security situation allows it.

Thanks to the evacuation effort over the weekend, 101 people — including women, the elderly, and 17 children, the youngest 6 months old — emerged from the bunkers under the steelworks to “see the daylight after two months,” said Osnat Lubrani, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Ukraine.

One evacuee said she went to sleep at the plant every night afraid she wouldn’t wake up.

“You can’t imagine how scary it is when you sit in the bomb shelter, in a damp and wet basement, and it is bouncing and shaking,” 54-year-old Elina Tsybulchenko said upon arriving in the Ukrainian-controlled city of Zaporizhzhia, about 140 miles (230 kilometers) northwest of Mariupol.

Mariupol — and the plant in particular — has come to symbolize the human misery inflicted by the war. The Russians’ two-month siege of the strategic port has trapped civilians with little or no food, water, medicine or heat, as Moscow’s forces pounded the city into rubble.

The city’s fall would deprive Ukraine of a vital port, allow Russia to establish a land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized from Ukraine in 2014, and free up troops for fighting elsewhere in the Donbas.

‘They Deceived Us at Every Step’: Troops Say Russia’s War Is in Shambles

Daily Beast

‘They Deceived Us at Every Step’: Troops Say Russia’s War Is in Shambles

Allison Quinn – May 4, 2022

Troops sent into Ukraine to back up Russian forces say they had no choice but to leave because Russian military was in shambles and “they deceived us at every step.”

Soldiers from the breakaway state of South Ossetia—speaking to South Ossetian leader Anatoly Bibilov at a meeting publicized by the independent news outlet MediaZona—rattled off a list of complaints about faulty equipment, lack of leadership and intel, and brainless tactics.

South Ossetia, which relies heavily on military and financial aid from Russia, sent troops to Ukraine in late March to “defend Russia.” Ukrainian military officials said at the time that some 150 South Ossetian troops were joining forces with Russia, but Tskhinvali never gave any official figures.

Many of the soldiers are said to be part of Russian military units based in South Ossetia; Moscow and Tskhinvali struck a deal in 2017 to partially incorporate their armed forces.

But reports soon surfaced of many of them refusing to take part in the fight, vowing not to become “cannon fodder.”

“Nobody got scared here, it’s just that they deceived us at every step,” one of the soldiers told Bibilov of their decision to abandon the fight.

“Of the 11 days [that we were there,] I wouldn’t even wish on an enemy what happened there. All the equipment didn’t work, I’m telling you straight… There was no command staff,” another soldier told the South Ossetian leader.

Out of 10 tanks, the first soldier said, only three fired. “The artillery mortar for the mortar-gunners didn’t work, the legs were all crooked,” he said.

Watch: Ukrainian Military Says It Is Striking Russian-Held Positions Near Izyum

Ukrainian Military Says It Is Striking Russian-Held Positions Near Izyum

Drone footage released by the Ukrainian military on May 3 shows explosions and smoldering vehicles, which it said was the aftermath of artillery attacks on Russian positions near frontlines close to Izyum.While Russian forces have been unable to capture the city of Kharkiv, they have punched south and east. Russian forces control Izyum, and have fought to expand control in nearby Donbas and Luhansk Oblasts. Frontlines in the area are close to Izyum, in Kharkiv Oblast, and Rubizhne, in Luhansk Oblast, according to a May 2 assessment published by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

This video, published by the Ukrainian military on May 3, shows the aftermath of what it said were artillery attacks on Russian positions. Storyful confirmed that the drone footage was taken above the town of Oleksandrivka, located just inside Donetsk Oblast, roughly 15 miles (24.1 km) from Izyum. The exact date of filming has not been confirmed. Credit: Ukrainian Military via Storyful

“There was no command. And if the officers didn’t know what to do, what is the sergeant doing there?” another soldier was quoted saying.

He said “99 percent of the equipment” in another unit didn’t even work, but when the troops warned the senior in command that their vehicles didn’t work and their guns “did not fire,” he shrugged it off and said to just “go like that.”

In another case, troops complained of their commander “disappearing” every time fighting started.

“He was afraid of his own men. He made himself a security team out of a few of the guys. The commander refused to come out and talk to his own guys and was saying that he’d be beaten,” one soldier said.

Eventually, “some guys from spetsnaz [special forces]” really did beat him and left his “face all bloody,” he said.

They said the Russian troops never had backup plans, or escape routes. Another soldier said one of his wounded comrades in Russian-occupied Donetsk was getting no medical care.

“He says that the first day they bandaged him, but there’s still shrapnel inside him. He says his hand is very swollen, and nobody is doing anything, the doctors aren’t even coming to see him. He’s been there for five days, and the doctors are only asking him for money,” he said.

After hearing the soldiers paint a picture of such utter dysfunction, Bibilov asked the men directly if they believe Russia will lose the war.

One soldier spoke up: “Yes, we believe they will lose.”

Does Vladimir Putin have an endgame in Ukraine? The next few weeks are crucial.

USA Today

Does Vladimir Putin have an endgame in Ukraine? The next few weeks are crucial.

Maureen Groppe and Tom Vanden Brook, USA Today – May 4, 2022

As the United States and its allies rush more cannons, tanks and ammunition to Ukraine, Russia’s diminished military is looking for victories to justify the huge cost of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

Putin hopes to gain in eastern Ukraine and parts of the Black Sea coastline. If successful, he could claim he met an initial objective of securing the Donbas area contested by Ukrainians and Russian-backed separatists since 2014.

If Russia exhausts Ukrainian defenses there, Putin might force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, giving Russia time to rebuild its military for a renewed push on the rest of the country.

Through $1.6 billion in military aid announced last month and visits to Ukraine last week by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the United States is trying to help block that option.

Calling the next few weeks pivotal, a senior Defense Department official said Russia will “have some real decisions to make” if its new offensive doesn’t succeed.

What happens in the next month, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, could determine security conditions in Europe for a generation.

Even if Putin continues to be thwarted in his attempt to take over Ukraine, the war could settle into a long-term, low-level conflict as Russian troops remain in parts of the country. Their presence would be a destabilizing force as Russia prepares for a new opportunity.

That’s something the United States hopes to head off.

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” Austin said last week when asked how he would define success in Ukraine.

President Joe Biden asked Congress on Thursday to approve an additional $33 billion in military, economic, humanitarian and other assistance to Ukraine. That would more than triple the amount the United States has committed to the cause.

The funding is intended to meet the needs of the Ukrainian military “during the crucial weeks and months ahead,” Biden said, as well as begin a transition to longer-term security assistance to help Ukraine deter and defend against Russian aggression.

Watch: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin says Ukraine can win war with Russia

Tracking the invasion: See where Russian forces are moving

Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 7, 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 7, 2022.
Could Putin turn Ukraine into another ‘frozen conflict’?

Dmitri Alperovitch, the Russian-born American chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a public policy nonprofit, said the focus in Ukraine’s south and east is the last major offensive Russia’s military can undertake for a while.

This phase of the war, Alperovitch said in an online salon organized by the Defense Priorities think tank, is likely to end “one way or another” in the next four to five weeks.

If Russia’s military can enlarge its holdings in Donbas and connect the area to Crimea, creating a strategic corridor between the Crimean Peninsula and Russian positions in eastern Ukraine, that could allow Putin to claim a victory he can sell to the Russian public, said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University.

“The death and destruction that’s taken place in Ukraine, the atrocities, the dislocation of millions of families, all of this makes it less and less likely that this war will end with a formal settlement,” he said. “It’s hard for me to imagine that Zelenskyy’s room for a political maneuver and Putin’s room for political maneuver overlap.”

“It simply does not exist anymore”: The devastation of Mariupol

US military aid to Ukraine: Breaking down the more than $3 billion assistance

A man carrying a little girl arrives with other families to board a train as they flee the eastern city of Kramatorsk in the Donbas region of Ukraine on April 4.
A man carrying a little girl arrives with other families to board a train as they flee the eastern city of Kramatorsk in the Donbas region of Ukraine on April 4.

The result might be a years-long territorial dispute with low-level military conflict, as has happened in other areas of interest to Russia.

“Historically speaking, these wars in the Russian periphery end with frozen conflicts,” Kupchan said. “Russian troops have a tendency to show up and not go home.”

After fighting a war with Georgia in 2008, Russia recognized the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent. It maintains a military presence there and provides financial support.

Similarly, Russian troops have been stationed for decades as “peacekeepers” in Transnistria, a pro-Russia breakaway region of Moldova.

Learn more: Transnistria, a sliver of land between Moldova and Ukraine, is becoming a focus of war

Putin uses frozen conflicts in former Soviet republics to upset their development and prevent them from aligning with the West, according to experts.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February – aiming to topple the capital of Kyiv – Russian and proxy forces held about 35% of the territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas of Donbas, according to Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and a William Perry Fellow at Stanford University.

Taking over all of Donbas might be Putin’s new endgame, Pifer said, but Russia’s ability to do so is debatable.

“There’s still a significant portion of the Ukrainian military in that territory,” he said.

Russian sanctions: While Putin’s Russian family was targeted, a larger shadow family may remain

A port city, a steel cage, a palace: The steps that made Putin ‘the richest man in the world’

Ukrainian soldiers are set to defend the city of Severodonetsk in the Donbas region from Russian invaders April 7.
Ukrainian soldiers are set to defend the city of Severodonetsk in the Donbas region from Russian invaders April 7.
‘You can’t reform an army in a matter of a couple of weeks’

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis April 18 that Russian forces may gain ground in the east through the heavy concentration of firepower and the size of their forces. Russia is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than major offensives around Kyiv, according to the analysis, because the military probably hasn’t fixed its underlying problems – poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations and low morale.

“You can’t reform an army in a matter of a couple of weeks,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, said last week on ABC’s “This Week With George Stephanopoulos.”

The United States increased its military assistance to include the type of weapons needed to fight back in eastern Ukraine, where artillery and armored vehicles are likely to play a central role.

The Ukrainians’ greatest need is for long-range guns and rockets that can reach deep into Russian lines. The terrain in eastern Ukraine is more open than that of the north where forests helped defenders ambush and thrash Russian convoys.

“The open flatlands provide some advantage to the Russian army,” said Garret Martin, an expert on trans-Atlantic relations at American University, “but it exposes them as well.”

The increased stakes are part of what’s driving the urgent mission to supply the Ukrainian army with long-range artillery weapons, according to a senior Defense Department official.

Biden announced on April 21 an $800 million military aid package that includes 72 howitzer artillery cannons. That came days after a separate $800 million batch of weapons included 18 howitzers.

With 90 cannons, the Ukrainian army can outfit about five artillery battalions.

U.S. troops have begun training Ukrainians on how to fire them, a process that takes about a week, according to a second senior defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

From Potemkin to Putin: What a centuries-old myth reveals about Russia’s war against Ukraine

Opinion: As Mariupol is destroyed, NATO must make it clear to Putin that he will not win.

A Ukrainian multiple rocket launcher BM-21 "Grad" shells Russian troops' position, near Lugansk, in the Donbas region, on April 10, 2022.
A Ukrainian multiple rocket launcher BM-21 “Grad” shells Russian troops’ position, near Lugansk, in the Donbas region, on April 10, 2022.

The howitzers have a range of about 15 miles or longer, depending on the type of shell they fire. The aid package included 144,000 rounds of artillery ammunition.

By extending the amount of training for Ukrainians, the administration signals that the war may go on for weeks or months, according to an assessment by Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Russians have a great deal of combat power inside Ukraine despite losing about 25% of those forces since the invasion began Feb. 24, according to the Pentagon.

Is Putin interested in an off-ramp to the war in Ukraine?

The Russian military learned from its mistakes around Kyiv and appears to have focused on supplying its troops in the east with the fuel and ammunition they need to fight, according to a senior defense official.

As both sides refocused their firepower, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met last month with Putin in Moscow and Zelenskyy in Kyiv. While Guterres was in Ukraine Thursday, a Russian missile struck Kyiv, an attack Zelenskyy said was an attempt to “humiliate” the United Nations.

Putin doesn’t appear to be looking for a way out of the conflict despite his major miscalculation on how events would unfold, experts said.

“I don’t see an off-ramp. I don’t think Putin is interested in an off-ramp,” said Angela Stent, a senior adviser to the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies and author of “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest.”

Rather than a way out, Putin is “desperately looking for a big victory so Russia can dictate the terms of the negotiations,” said Zia Haque, director of the Baker Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies and assistant professor of peace and conflict studies at Juniata College.

“Putin feels like this is going to be his survival,” Haque said. “He strongly feels that he cannot lose the war. He cannot afford to lose it.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last week that the only way to end the war is a full withdrawal of Russian troops.

“I think that this war should be finished,” Shmyhal said on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” “when we clean our territories from Russian occupants.”

Contributing: Kim Hjelmgaard

Grave by grave, police and war crimes investigators comb a Ukrainian forest

Los Angeles Times

Grave by grave, police and war crimes investigators comb a Ukrainian forest

Laura King – May 4, 2022

EDITORS NOTE: Graphic content / A dead body lies on the ground in a street in Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, as Ukraine says Russian forces are making a "rapid retreat" from northern areas around Kyiv and the city of Chernigiv, on April 2, 2022. - The bodies of at least 20 men in civilian clothes were found lying in a single street Saturday after Ukrainian forces retook the town of Bucha near Kyiv from Russian troops, AFP journalists said. Russian forces withdrew from several towns near Kyiv in recent days after Moscow's bid to encircle the capital failed, with Ukraine declaring that Bucha had been "liberated". (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP) (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)
One of at least 20 bodies reportedly found Saturday on a street in Bucha, near Kyiv, weeks after the Ukrainian army retook it from Russian forces. (Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP/Getty Images)

The Russian troops left weeks ago. But the little forest that lies between this Ukrainian village and a neighboring hamlet keeps yielding bodies, one by one.

The latest was a man with holes in his socks.

On a spring day of fitfully alternating clouds and sunshine, tattered red-and-white police tape marked off the shallow depression into which the body had been dumped and covered with a thin layer of dirt.

A villager stumbled onto it late Tuesday, and by the next morning, after de-miners had swept the area for explosives, black-clad police in white gloves were crouched at the graveside, brushing aside clumps of soil.

In this patch of woods, less than a 40-minute drive from the capital, Kyiv, five bodies have been unearthed in recent weeks, scattered amid what were once Russian fortifications. All were shot. Some bore obvious signs of torture.

For a tiny farming community such as this one, each such discovery is a fresh wound — but at the same time a potential source of relief.

A weathered-looking woman named Alyona, whose brother went missing March 4, was summoned by police to this grove of trees a few dozen feet from the side of a narrow road. They inquired, gently, if this body might be his.

It was not.

“I have to go and do this quite often,” she said quietly. “Every time they find another one.”

When the Russians first arrived, Alyona recounted, her brother and a friend got in the car, intending to go and talk to them about how villagers would be treated. At the time it didn’t seem like a foolhardy thing to do.

She hasn’t seen her brother since.

Before hurrying away without giving her last name, she explained his thinking: “He was under the impression that in the 21st century, these soldiers wouldn’t touch civilians.”

Very quickly, villagers learned otherwise.

Their district, Bucha, with a main city by the same name, is now a bleak watchword for suspected atrocities against civilians in Russian-occupied areas: torture, rape, execution-style killings.

Much of the evidence was unearthed — literally — weeks after the fact, as bodies were discovered in cellars and shallow graves once the occupiers had departed. Other corpses were left in the open, scattered willy-nilly in streets and gardens.

International forensic specialists have joined local police in investigating more than 9,000 potential war crimes, Ukraine’s prosecutor-general, Iryna Venediktova, said this week. Since early April, when the Russians abandoned their threatened attack on Kyiv, at least 1,200 civilian deaths have been confirmed in the capital region from the occupation.

Like ripples radiating from a stone tossed in a pond, the killings were concentrated in the more densely populated areas, but also occurred in outlying hamlets such as Vysehrad, little more than a cluster of simple wood or brick structures and farm fields.

The body of a civilian lies in an apartment as Russian bombardments continue
The body of a civilian lies in an apartment as Russian bombardments continue in a village recently retaken by Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on April 30. (Felipe Dana / Associated Press)

Police knew nothing yet of the man whose remains they were unearthing on Wednesday, save that he was thought to be a “local citizen,” said Oleksandr Omelyanenko, the Bucha district police chief.

A few feet away, the newly uncovered corpse lay on its back. The arms were outstretched in a V-shape, a ruched-up black sweater covering the head and part of the torso. Dark trousers bore red racing stripes on the sides. The feet were shoeless, with socks in need of darning.

One black-clad officer crouched near the head of the grave, delicately prising a green-tinted hand free from the dirt, while a colleague stood by, holding a clipboard, making careful notes.

This day was only the beginning of what would be a lengthy and involved forensic process, during which a cause of death would be formally determined. Authorities were hoping that friends or relatives of missing people, who regularly check the district’s morgue, would be able to provide identification.

In this scatter of towns and villages less than an hour’s drive from the capital, cleanup and reconstruction are already proceeding briskly. Well-marked detours route traffic around smashed bridges. Rubble is neatly swept into piles.

In Makariv, the township that encompasses Vysehrad, police set up shop in an outbuilding attached to a small market, after their headquarters across the street were blackened and hollowed by a missile strike.

People stand looking over bodies on the ground
The bodies of six people in a mass grave and three others a few yards away were uncovered in the town of Borodyanka on April 20. Ukrainian criminal police investigators documented the evidence of war crimes before putting the bodies into body bags. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

The damage to communities, though, is not only physical. In the Bucha area, police are investigating about a dozen cases of suspected collaboration, responding to reports that some locals provided aid and assistance to those same Russians who were harming and killing their neighbors.

Meanwhile, the task of exhumation, at once brutal and banal, will probably continue for weeks, months, even years. Omelyanenko said his officers’ daily work would help determine how these civilians died, but do little to answer the more enduring question of why.

“That I don’t know,” he said, glancing toward that day’s forest grave. “How can I answer this?”

Ukraine is asking Biden admin for anti-ship missiles, drones and rocket launchers, says congressman

NBC News

Ukraine is asking Biden admin for anti-ship missiles, drones and rocket launchers, says congressman

Dan De Luce – May 4, 2022

Ukraine is asking the Biden administration for anti-ship missiles to secure ports that have been blocked by Russia’s navy, as well as more capable drones and multiple rocket launcher systems that can strike Russian forces at a longer distance, according to Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conveyed the request to Crow and other lawmakers who visited Kyiv over the weekend, who then relayed the wish list to President Joe Biden directly, Crow told NBC News.

Ukraine said it needed U.S.-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles or similar weapons to free up the use of the Black Sea port of Odesa and other ports for the export of millions of tons of grain and food. The ports are under a de facto naval blockade by Russian forces off the coast, Crow said.

“They need ground-based anti-ship missiles, the Harpoon or something like it, because one of the biggest challenges they face right now is getting their food exported,” Crow said. “They’re sitting on 12 million tons of foodstuff, wheat grains, sunflower oil, and this food needs to get out both for the Ukrainian economy but also to prevent famine and starvation in Africa and the Middle East, in particular. If it doesn’t get out in the next couple months, it will go bad. We’ll see hunger spike throughout the world.”

Ukraine has mined the waters off its ports to prevent a Russian amphibious invasion, but anti-ship missiles could allow government forces to open a corridor to move ships out of the ports, he said.

Crow later made similar comments to a group of reporters.

Ukraine is also appealing to the U.S. for longer-range drones that can be flown repeatedly in addition to the smaller, one-off “kamikaze” drones that Washington has provided so far, Crow said.

“They need long-range drones that could have much longer ranges and that are re-armable, so not just the kamikaze drones, but things like we have in our U.S. inventory that can go out, strike very long distances and come back to be re-armed with precision munitions,” he said.

Nancy Pelosi Meets In Kyiv With Ukrainian President Zelensky (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office / Getty Images)
Nancy Pelosi Meets In Kyiv With Ukrainian President Zelensky (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office / Getty Images)

In addition, Crow said, Zelenskyy told the congressional delegation his government is asking for multiple-launch rocket systems, particularly the U.S.-made system known as HIMARS. With ranges of more than 100 kilometers, the rocket systems would be “decisive,” as they would enable the Ukrainian military to strike at Russian forces at a longer distance than artillery, a capability urgently needed for fighting in the flat, open terrain in the country’s east and south.

“They need things that can reach out 100-plus kilometers. Artillery can’t go that far. Artillery can go half that distance at best or a third of that. The rocket launches can reach much further and be devastating to enemy units,” Crow said.

Asked if the administration was ready to provide the weapons requested, a State Department spokesperson said, “We have no details to share on this report, but as demonstrated in recent weeks, we are committed to helping Ukraine to defend itself, strengthen Ukraine’s hands on the battlefield and at the negotiating table and bring an end to this war with military assistance, humanitarian aid, and economic support. “

The United States has announced $3.7 billion in military aid for Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion in February.

“Deliveries of our security assistance are occurring daily and at incredible speed. We are the world’s leading provider of security assistance to Ukraine in its hour of need, and we are encouraging allies and partners worldwide to do the same,” the spokesperson added.

Crow said U.S. artillery officers told him Ukrainian forces could be trained quickly in the rocket systems outside the country, with about two weeks of instruction.

The Biden administration has previously said the Harpoon anti-ship missiles are not a good fit for the Ukrainian navy and that Ukrainian ships would not be able to accommodate the Harpoons. But Crow said they could be based on land, and he added that Ukraine has proved capable of handling advanced weapons and fighting with ingenuity.

“I mean these are people fighting for their survival, and every day counts. So why would they ask for something that they’re not going to be able to use?” Crow said.

”I think it’s also fair to say the world has consistently underestimated the Ukrainians and their ability to be innovative, creative, and to make things happen. So I take them at their word when they say they need something that they need it, and we should get it there,” he said.

The U.K. has already announced it will provide Ukraine with anti-ship missiles.

Crow, who serves on the Armed Services and Intelligence committees, said the delegation spent four hours with Zelenskyy and that he had a detailed conversation with Zelenskyy about the military situation and the weapons Kyiv needs.

“I personally talked to him for a very long time about what equipment they need, where the equipment is going, the state of their military units, where the offenses are going to be, how they’re going to handle it.” Crow said.

Shocking video shows Ukrainian drone destroying 2 Russian patrol boats

Business Insider

Shocking video shows Ukrainian drone destroying 2 Russian patrol boats

Julie Coleman – May 4, 2022

A B model of Bayraktar AKINCI TİHA (Assault Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) in the sky on March 2, 2022 in Corlu, Turkey.
A B model of Bayraktar AKINCI TİHA (Assault Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) in the sky on March 2, 2022 in Corlu, Turkey.Baykar Press Office/dia images via Getty Images
  • The 17-second video shows the moment drones hit two Russian Raptor fast-attack craft.
  • The Russian patrol boats were destroyed in the Black Sea near Snake Island, a strategic and symbolic location for Ukraine.
  • The drone used to sink the Russian ships is known as Bayraktar TB2, built by Turkey.

Ukraine said on Monday its drones sank two Russian ships in the Black Sea near Snake Island, which the Russians had captured the day the war broke out on February 24.

“Two Russian Raptor boats were destroyed at daybreak today near Snake Island,” Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi wrote on social media platforms.

“#bayraktar is doing its job,” he continued, referring to the Turkish unmanned combat aerial vehicle known as the Bayraktar TB2, that reportedly helped sink the two Russian Raptor fast-attack craft. Along with the message, Zaluzhnyi posted a 17-second video that allegedly shows the moment the drones hit the Russian raptors at 4:51 am local time.

Russia made no comment on Ukraine’s claim, the Wall Street Journal reported, but said it destroyed three Bayraktar drones without providing any evidence.

Raptor-class boats are 55-foot-long vessels armed with machine guns that are used for patrol missions, with a crew of three and space to ferry up to 20 troops.

Although it is small – only 42 acres – Snake Island is strategically important because it sits at the edge of Ukraine’s territorial waters in the Black Sea. A report last year from non-partisan think tank the Atlantic Council called Snake Island the “key to Ukraine’s maritime territorial claims” in the Black Sea.

Snake Island has also become a legendary symbol of resistance for Ukraine, as military defending the island refused to surrender to Russian forces on February 24, radioing “Russian warship go screw yourself,” when the Russian flagship cruiser Moskva approached.

The patrol boat losses add to the mounting toll for the Russian Navy. In April, the Moskva sank after being hit with at least one Neptune anti-sink missile, the Pentagon confirmed.

Russia’s Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover

Oil Price.com

Russia’s Oil Output Is Plummeting, And It May Never Recover

Editor OilPrice.com – May 4, 2022

Russian oil production is falling. In March, it shed half a million bpd, which by the end of April reached a full 1 million bpd, according to BP’s CEO, Bernard Looney. And this may well grow to 2 million bpd this month. These barrels may not be returning to the market any time soon.

As the European Union targeted a barrage of sanctions on Moscow, oil was excluded as a direct target but financial and maritime sanctions affected the industry. Now, the EU is proposing a full oil embargo, save for a handful of member states too dependent on Russian oil to comply, and this will mean a further loss of barrels at a time when the global oil market is already stretched thin.

“We could potentially see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports, resulting from current and future sanctions or other voluntary actions,” the secretary-general of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, told the European Union last month.

This does not appear to have made any lasting impression on the decision-makers in Brussels, who are moving full steam ahead with the oil embargo. Meanwhile, alternative suppliers would struggle to fill the void left by Russian oil.

Russia expects it could lose some 17% of its pre-war oil production this year, Reuters reported last month, citing a document from the country’s economy ministry. The report noted this would be the biggest production drop since the 1990s—a tumultuous time for Russia following the breakup of the Soviet Union.

That would be close to 2 million bpd—a figure similar to Looney’s forecast and also to a forecast made by Rystad Energy about lost Russian oil production between 2021 and 2030. If the Rystad projections are right, the fallout from the EU oil embargo would be limited and most Russian production will simply be redirected as it already is. If, however, production declines more, this could see international prices spike much higher.

When European buyers started refusing to accept Russian oil cargoes, those cargoes had to return home to be stored somewhere. According to local reports, however, storage space is limited, and this has probably forced the idling of some wells, which if idled, can see their ability to produce in the future affected.

Related: Upstream Oil Industry To See Highest Profits Ever In 2022

But there is also danger ahead for Russia’s future production. This may also not materialize as previously planned because of the exit of Big Oil majors from the country, Dan Dicker, host of The Energy Word, told Yahoo Finance earlier this week. Their exit, combined with financial sanctions on Russian banks, will make developing new resources in eastern Siberia more challenging.

Meanwhile, OPEC is producing less, rather than more, oil, and U.S. producers are under fire from legislators for alleged profiteering from the oil price rally and struggling with shortages of materials, equipment, and workforce.

U.S. oil production will rise by only 800,000 bpd this year, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. That’s not good news for America’s European partners. It’s not good news for Americans, either, because it means prices will likely remain high.

Except for OPEC and the United States, there are few producers large enough to spare oil for Europe, if any. Brazil is expanding its oil production but its total stands at around 3 million bpd, which is what the EU was importing from Russia before the war in Ukraine began. That leaves the Central Asian producers, who are parties to the OPEC+ agreement and firmly within the Russian sphere of influence, too.

What all this means is that with the loss of 2 million bpd of Russian production, a lot of the world is in for prolonged oil price pain, which means all-price pain as well. The beneficiaries are China and India, who are buying Russian crude at a discount, with no logical reason for them to stop, despite threats from Washington. But Russia’s oil production could still fall by more than 2 million bpd.

“Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has been a deliberate and decades-long and mutually beneficial relationship. In this early phase of sanctions and embargoes, Russia will benefit as higher prices mean tax revenues are significantly higher than in recent years,” said Daria Melnik, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

“Pivoting exports to Asia will take time and massive infrastructure investments that in the medium term will see Russia’s production and revenues drop precipitously,” she added.

With most producers constrained in their capacity to boost production fast, should this scenario play out, oil could become a lot more expensive with little in the way of downside pressure, including electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are about to experience a shortage of batteries and still higher prices. There are some really interesting times ahead.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Mariupol evacuee fears for families still trapped under steel works

Reuters

Mariupol evacuee fears for families still trapped under steel works

Alessandra Prentice and Joseph Campbell – May 4, 2022

  • Tetyana Trotsak walks with her dog in front a hotel used as temporary shelter in ZaporizhzhiaTetyana Trotsak walks with her dog in front a hotel used as temporary shelter in Zaporizhzhia

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (Reuters) – After two months in a bunker, Mariupol evacuee Tetyana Trotsak is feeling the sun on her face and staring up at the bright blue sky on her first day of freedom.

But she can’t forget the 42 people she believes are still stuck in a shelter they shared under Ukraine’s besieged Azovstal steel works.

The 25-year-old, her husband and parents were among the dozens of civilians who reached the Ukraine-controlled town of Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday after being evacuated from the plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol where other civilians and the city’s last defenders remain under siege.

Holding her lapdog Daisy to her chest, Trotsak looked around at the quiet street with wonder.

“To escape and be beneath the peaceful sky, look at it – blue and the bright sun. I think we’re all getting badly sunburnt because we got so little vitamin D,” she said on Wednesday after her first night above ground since early March.

“But I’m terribly worried about the civilians and wounded soldiers that are still there.”

Of the 56 people, including children, in their bunker, Trotsak knows of only 14 who were able to evacuate so far.

City authorities say around 200 civilians and more than 30 children are still trapped at the steel plant, whose vast network of underground bunkers has suffered repeated bombardment from encircling Russian troops.

LIFE UNDERGROUND

Trotsak, who works at a local power company, said her family decided to take refuge at Azovstal after a shell landed near their home, blew open the doors, and “made everything shake like jelly.”

They grabbed a few belongings and some bedding and moved into one of the plant’s shelters, pooling food with other families and making makeshift beds out of bits of wood. The cold, damp conditions made everything mouldy, she said.

As the weeks went by in March and sounds of fighting and explosions appeared to come closer, the group started losing hope they would soon be able to return to their homes.

“When the heavy shelling started and powerful strikes started landing near our shelter, we could feel the shaking just by sitting on the bed,” Trotsak said, recalling frantic efforts to find a way to light the pitch-black bunker after the attacks cut off power supplies.

Talking about their ordeal, she remained calm, tearing up only when she described how her family had to ask a Ukrainian soldier to kill their older dog Jerry, who was blind and suffering in the cramped shelter.

The soldier took the dog away and came back crying, Trotsak said.

A radio was their only connection to the outside world and in April they heard reports of international efforts to help trapped civilians in Mariupol. “This gave us more strength, it felt as if … we might get out and it would all be over,” she said.

But when the evacuation day arrived, there were not enough spaces for everyone. Trotsak’s family were encouraged to go in the first wave because her mother has asthma, she said.

“Go ahead, get to Zaporizhzhia and grab a table at a cafe and … we’ll join you for a pizza,” she recalled one of the people saying who remained behind.

“Of course it was terribly uncomfortable for us that we went first.”

The group picked their way through the rubble around the plant, escorted by three Ukrainian soldiers. There was so much debris that the walk to the waiting buses, which should have taken 15 minutes, took two and half hours.

“Walking past the plant the day before yesterday, we saw that everything was ablaze in black smoke,” she said. “God forbid more shells hit near the bunkers where the civilians are.”

The port city, which before the war had 400,000 inhabitants, has seen the heaviest fighting so far of the conflict, which Moscow calls a “special military operation” to disarm Ukraine and defend its Russian-speaking population from fascists.

Kyiv and its Western supporters say Moscow’s fascism claim is a baseless pretext for an unprovoked war of aggression that has driven more than five million Ukrainians to flee abroad.

Trotsak and her family are staying at a hotel that has been commandeered to house evacuees, but Trotsak does not want to stay long and take up space for the many Mariupol evacuees she hopes will soon arrive in the relative safety of Zaporizhzhia.

“It’s peaceful, no sounds of explosions thank god. And I hope there never will be here any kind of booms here, just fireworks and thunder.”

(Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

Two women killed by Russian bombs as massive assault on Azovstal continues

Ukrayinska Pravda

Two women killed by Russian bombs as massive assault on Azovstal continues

Valentyna Romanenko, Iryna Balachuk – May 3, 2022

ukrpravda@gmail.com (Ukrayinska Pravda) – May 3, 2022

Two women were killed and around ten people were injured in a massive aerial bombardment of the Azovstal steelworks by Russian occupation forces. As of 4:15 pm, the fierce assault on the plant continues. Source: Azov Regiment Details: In a video released on 3 May by the plant’s defenders, a man describes the effects of the Russian bombardment and says that the bodies of two women have been recovered from under the rubble.

The Azov Regiment has promised to help with excavations, as there may be more people under the rubble. Quote: “We are urgently calling for the swift imposition of a ceasefire and an extension of the evacuation of civilians to safe Ukrainian-controlled territories.” At 4:15 pm, Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment Sviatoslav “Kalyna” Palamar reported that the assault on the plant was continuing and the defenders were doing everything they could to repel it.

Quote from Palamar: “As of this minute, a massive assault on the Azovstal plant is underway, supported by armoured vehicles and tanks, with attempts to land using boats and a large number of infantry. We will do all we can to repel this assault, but we are calling for immediate action to evacuate civilians.”

Background: On the afternoon of 3 May, Russian invaders launched an assault on the Azovstal steelworks, which is being defended by the Ukrainian Defence Forces in besieged Mariupol.

U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia

Reuters

U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia

Steve Holland, Trevor Hunnicutt and David Brunnstrom

May 3, 2022

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Two months after warning that Beijing appeared poised to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine, senior U.S. officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support, a welcome development in the tense U.S.-China relationship.

U.S. officials told Reuters in recent days they remain wary about China’s long-standing support for Russia in general, but that the military and economic support that they worried about has not come to pass, at least for now. The relief comes at a pivotal time.

President Joe Biden is preparing for a trip to Asia later this month dominated by how to deal with the rise of China and his administration is soon to release his first national security strategy about the emergence of China as a great power.

“We have not seen the PRC provide direct military support to Russia’s war on Ukraine or engage in systematic efforts to help Russia evade our sanctions,” a Biden administration official told Reuters, referring to the People’s Republic of China.

“We continue to monitor for the PRC and any other country that might provide support to Russia or otherwise evade U.S. and partner sanctions.”

As well as steering clear of directly backing Russia’s war effort, China has avoided entering new contracts between its state oil refiners and Russia, despite steep discounts. In March its state-run Sinopec Group suspended talks about a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia.

Last month, the U.S. envoy to the United Nations hailed China’s abstentions on U.N. votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “win,” underscoring how Beijing’s enforced balancing act between Russia and the West may be the best outcome for Washington.

Still, China has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and has criticized the sweeping Western sanctions on Moscow.

Trade volume between Russia and China also jumped in the first quarter, and the two declared a “no limits” partnership in February.

On Monday, Beijing’s Washington embassy issued a 30-page newsletter accusing the United States of spreading “falsehoods” to discredit China over Ukraine, including through a March press leak saying Russia had sought Chinese military help. The embassy noted that U.S. officials had since said they had seen no evidence of China providing such support.

Biden himself has not spoken of China helping Russia since telling reporters in Brussels March 24 that in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he “made sure he understood the consequences.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week China is dealing with the “significant reputational risk” of being Russia’s ally and that “for now we’re not seeing significant support from China for Russia’s military actions.”

Biden is to visit Tokyo and Seoul in what will be his first trip to Asia as president – one that won’t include a stop in China. He’ll meet with Indian and Australian leaders too, during a ‘Quad’ meeting in Tokyo.

China has made Russia a key part of its foreign policy strategy to counter the West. Biden aides were worried Xi was planning to provide direct support to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his campaign in Ukraine faced fierce setbacks, one U.S. official said.

They were heartened this has not happened so far, but Washington and its allies are continuing to closely monitor the level of assistance, the official said.

Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said stark warnings by the U.S. and European Union have paid off so far.

“There has been consistent messaging that if China does so it will face severe consequences. It appears that so far, the Chinese have not. It is feasible that the Chinese planned to provide military assistance and changed their minds,” she said.

However U.S. officials remain concerned about China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and what they say is its continued parroting of Russian disinformation.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on April 21 that Beijing had “repeatedly drawn false equivalencies between Russia’s war of aggression and Ukraine’s self-defensive actions.”

She added: “Let’s be clear, China’s already doing things that do not help this situation.”

(Reporting By Steve Holland, David Brunnstrom and Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Heather Timmons, Richard Pullin, William Maclean)