The Tarbabys Blog

Ukrayinska Pravda

Zelenskyy: Ukraine’s defense will be as powerful as Israel’s

Roman Petrenko – June 23, 2022

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine insists that after winning the war Ukraine will work towards becoming a truly European state – more liberal than before in many respects, but with a powerful security and defence system akin to Israel’s.

Source: Zelenskyy during a meeting with the Israeli university community

Details: Zelenskyy noted that many Ukrainians have already learned how to repulse an aggressor. In the future, Ukraine will work to widen the participation of Ukrainian citizens in the country’s defence.

Quote from Zelenskyy: “This concerns not only the security of our borders, but also internal security. With neighbours like ours, we can expect bombardments, cruise missiles and who knows what else at any moment. So the air defence system of our country has to be improved.

We will build a European country, which will be a member of the European Union. But with a defence system as powerful as that of Israel.”

Earlier: Oleksii Reznikov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, announced that the first shipment of HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, a light multiple rocket launcher supplied to Ukraine by the US – ed.] systems has arrived in Ukraine.

Business Insider

Boris Johnson says the Russian army might soon run out of soldiers and weapons and lose its ‘forward momentum’ in Ukraine

Cheryl Teh – June 23, 2022

• Boris Johnson told European media outlets that Russia might soon run out of weapons and soldiers.
• British intelligence on the Ukraine war suggests Russia may lose its “forward momentum,” per Johnson.
• Johnson said he intends to ask the G7 to aid Ukraine in a counter-offensive with more equipment.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said this week that he believes Russia will soon lose momentum in its war with Ukraine.

Speaking to the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Johnson said that he thought Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army was suffering heavy losses of soldiers and equipment just to gain ground in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Citing intelligence reports from the British defense forces, Johnson told the outlet that he believed the Russian onslaught in Ukraine would likely lose steam in the coming few months.

“Our defense intelligence service believes, however, that in the next few months, Russia could come to a point at which there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he said, per Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

“Then we must help the Ukrainians to reverse the dynamic. I will argue for this at the Group of Seven summit,” he said, per the outlet.

Johnson also told Sueddeutsche Zeitung that he thought it was important for the Ukrainian army to be supported in launching a counter-offensive if it is able to do so.

“This is their crisis. They are the victims of Putin’s aggression, they must decide what they want to do. But it is absolutely clear if you go to Ukraine, if you talk to the Ukrainians, and if you talk to [Ukrainian President Volodymr] Zelenskyy. you will come away with the overwhelming view that the Ukrainians will not concede their territory,” he said, per the outlet.

Johnson added that he thought a win for Ukraine would include Russian forces being repelled from the areas they invaded and for Ukraine to “regain the status quo” before the invasion on February 24, per Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

“Ukraine must win, we agree on that. The unity of the West is far more conspicuous than the divisions,” Johnson told the outlet.

Intelligence from the UK has suggested that Russia may soon struggle to produce enough military equipment to fuel a prolonged conflict in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s forces are currently engaged in a critical fight in the Donbas. In June, Ukraine estimated that Russia had 10 to 15 times more artillery than its forces, appealing to the West to send more weapons. Reports have also cited a growing number of deserters among Ukrainian forces.

Earlier this month, a senior US official also told The Washington Post that Russia would likely gain control of eastern Ukraine within weeks after doubling down on its military efforts in the Donbas.

Los Angeles Times

War for eastern Ukraine reaches ‘fearful climax’ as European Union approves Ukraine candidacy

Nabih Bulos, Jaweed Kaleem, Tracy Wilkinson – June 23, 2022

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers appeared to be all but encircled as Russian troops advanced Thursday around two strategically important cities in eastern Ukraine in what a senior Ukrainian official called a “fearful climax” of the battle for the Donbas, signaling that the fall of a significant part of the region was imminent.

The comment, from Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych, highlighted the stark contrast between the battlefield and growing international diplomacy in support of Ukraine as the war approaches its fourth month.

Millions of people are displaced, cities are in ruin and air-raid sirens have become a terrifying part of everyday life across wide swaths of the nation even as Western support for it grows. Meeting Thursday in Brussels, European Union representatives acting with unusual speed granted Ukraine status as an EU candidate. The idea that once faced significant hurdles in the bloc gained greater appeal amid the protracted war and economic sanctions against Russia.

The decision does not guarantee admission to the EU, and the candidacy process could take years. Ukraine will need to fulfill economic and political requirements and gain unanimous approval from the EU’s 27 members. Still, giving Ukraine a candidacy position — which the EU also granted tiny Moldova, another former Soviet republic that borders Ukraine — is a boost to Kyiv’s aspirations to be part of the West and a snub to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This is “a good day for Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Brussels.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded via Twitter: “Ukraine’s future is within the EU.”

Zelensky, who had called the EU meeting a “crucial moment” for his nation, said in an overnight address that the war was reaching a tipping point and repeated pleas for more help from Western powers.

“We must free our land and achieve victory, but more quickly, a lot more quickly,” Zelensky said early Thursday as he asked for bigger and faster armaments.

The U.S. and other Western countries have increased shipments of heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Washington announced another $450-million package Thursday that will include long- or medium-range rocket systems, tactical vehicles, grenade launchers, machine guns and aquatic patrol boats, the latest in approximately $6 billion in U.S. equipment supplied to Ukraine since the Russian invasion.

Still, Zelensky and Kyiv’s military officials say Moscow’s military superiority is hard to match in what has become a sustained artillery battle in the east, where Putin’s forces are backed by separatists. Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Oleksandr Motuzianyk estimated this week that Russian fire often outnumbers Ukrainian fire 6 to 1.

“There were massive air and artillery strikes in Donbas. The occupier’s goal here is unchanged. They want to destroy the entire Donbas step by step,” Zelensky said in his overnight video address.

The president said, “Russian troops aim to turn any city into Mariupol,” the major port city that Moscow overtook last month after relentless pounding.

Zelensky is scheduled to appear virtually at summits this and next week of the Group of 7 major economies and, separately, of NATO’s 30 countries. Major points on both summits’ agendas will be Ukraine and ways to continue to arm it and ease its humanitarian crisis.

The Russian advance around the sister cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk underscored the do-or-die strategy the Ukrainians have adopted for their defense.

Ukrainians have slowed Moscow’s push and Russians have incurred losses as they gain ground in the Donbas. But the cost has been devastating and has often left Ukrainian defenders with no path of escape.

In Lysychansk, Ukrainian personnel said Thursday that the Russian army had made gains along the Seversky Donets River with apparent aims to surround Lysychansk from the north and the south. That would leave leave thousands of Ukrainian soldiers trapped. The river separates Lysychansk from Severodonetsk.

It was not clear Thursday if the Russian encirclement around the cities had fully closed. One aid worker who was delivering assistance to Lysychansk said that he could still make it from the west into the city but that the Russians were pressing closer to cut off access. He said Russians had already overrun suburbs south of Lysychansk.

Alexander, a special forces police instructor in Lysychansk, acknowledged the situation was bad. “It’s hard, we understand,” he said Thursday. “But we stand.”

The war, now largely concentrated in the east, has also continued elsewhere in the Donbas in addition to other regions.

Shelling reported overnight in the second-largest city, Kharkiv, and towns around it left 10 people dead, said regional governor Oleh Sinegubov. The Ukrainian army — whose counteroffensives in the south have reportedly made gains around the Russian-held city of Kherson — said Thursday that three cruise missiles hit nearby Mykolaiv. The army also said two missiles were shot down near the coastal city of Odesa.

In the west, Lviv has remained among the major cities least affected. The city is a key route for refugees and international workers on their way to Poland, and Lviv’s shops were open and its streets were bustling. At a crossing at the Ukraine-Poland border, the commercial shipping truck lane was crowded while regular travelers came in quickly.

Once through the border, Ukrainian soldiers on their way to training made their way to a bus where an army officer checked off names from a list. The Polish end of the crossing was lined with hundreds of cars waiting to enter Ukraine that formed a miles-long queue.

It was a stark contrast to Ukraine’s east, where blacked-out ghost towns and the disquieting silence after air-raid sirens are most of what can be seen.

Bulos reported from Lviv and Kaleem from London. Wilkinson reported from Washington.

Daily Beast

Distracted Putin Is About to Tumble Into a New Bloodbath, Officials Warn

Kristina Jovanovski – June 22, 2022

ISTANBUL—Russia’s distraction over the war in Ukraine has forced its military presence to decrease in areas that may soon face a Turkish offensive, Syrian opposition officials told The Daily Beast this week.

The officials, including in the opposition Syrian National Army (SNA), said Moscow has withdrawn from several areas in northwestern Syria near the Turkish border, including Tal Rifaat, where Ankara has said it would carry out a military operation to combat the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers a terrorist group.

The SNA, a coalition of rebel groups backed by Turkey, would take part in the possible operation, according to Yusuf Hammoud, an officer and former spokesperson for the SNA.

Hammoud, who is based in northwestern Afrin, Syria, said Russia has decreased its presence in areas around Aleppo and Tal Rifaat.

“It will make it easier for Turkey to win this war,” Hammoud told The Daily Beast.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that his country will carry out a military operation in the northwestern cities of Tal Rifaat and Manbij near the Turkish border to create a “safe zone” where 1 million Syrian refugees could return.

‘Pain in the Neck’: The Most Cursed Member of NATO Revealed

Tensions between Syrian refugees and locals in Turkey have been rising, putting domestic pressure on Erdogan, whose popularity has declined amid an economic crisis a year before national elections are due.

If there is an attempt to take these areas, it risks a direct confrontation between NATO member Turkey and groups allied with Russia.

Beyond engaging in conflict with possibly several armed groups, an incursion could also have a heavy humanitarian toll, leading to the death or displacement of people who have gone through 11 years of Syria’s civil war.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that Turkey’s 2019 offensive against Kurdish forces in the northeast led to the displacement of more than 150,000.

Erdogan has not said when the offensive will begin.

“Like I always say, we’ll come down on them suddenly one night. And we must,” the Turkish president stated at the end of May, according to the Associated Press.

Ankara insists the YPG, which has cooperated with the U.S. in its fight against ISIS, is an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long insurgency in Turkey, leading to tens of thousands of deaths.

Turkey, the U.S., and the EU consider the PKK a terrorist organization. Ankara has carried out four previous incursions into Syria, including against the YPG.

Turkey’s presence in Syria has put Ankara at odds both with its NATO allies and powerful competitors, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, who backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

While Erdogan has continued support for opposition rebel groups, he has had to placate the competing interests of Russia, a nearby nuclear power with a permanent UN security council seat and a crucial source of energy and tourism to Turkey.

After Moscow put economic sanctions on Turkey for downing a fighter jet in 2015 that Ankara said had violated its airspace, Russia said Erdogan had apologized for the incident.

If the Kremlin now tacitly accepts a Turkish incursion into areas it or its allies controlled, it could be seen as a sign of how the invasion of Ukraine has overstretched the Russian military and it can no longer enforce its interests or its allies, even against a country with less geopolitical weight and military power.

The Turkish government did not respond to The Daily Beast’s request for comment on the possible operation.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price has expressed concern over the possible operation, stating it would undermine regional stability, and put U.S. troops and the fight against ISIS at risk.

Moscow’s Syria envoy stated that Russia has tried to convince Turkey not to go ahead with the military operation, Russia’s state news agency Tass reported.

Still, Moscow-based analyst Kerim Has, who specializes in Turkish-Russian relations, said that Russia could give Turkey a green light to launch an offensive, despite its public comments.

Has stated that if Turkey, or groups it backs, take control over Tal Rifaat, that could lead to an attempt to take nearby Aleppo, controlled by Russia’s ally, Assad.

Has believes Russia’s war in Ukraine has made Moscow more dependent on Ankara, a NATO member that has not imposed sanctions on Russia and which could serve the Kremlin’s interests by delaying NATO membership for Sweden and Finland.

“Mr. Edrdgan’s hands are stronger now in regards to Russia compared to four months ago,” Has said.

He added that since Russia would want Erdogan to win the upcoming election, Moscow could allow the incursion to boost the Turkish president’s popularity among his nationalist base.

Hammoud, with the SNA, said that Iranian forces were taking over some of the areas the Russians have retreated from.

Ahmad Misto, a civil leader in northwestern Syria with a brigade in the SNA, stated that Iranian forces have taken control of areas around Aleppo and Idlib province in the northwest where Russia has withdrawn.

“The Russians still have political power over the [Syrian] regime but the Iranians have it military-wise on the frontlines,” Misto said.

He added that the pullback of Russian forces happened about one to one-and-a-half months after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Mohammad Ismail, a senior leader of the Kurdish National Council, based in Qamishli, northeastern Syria, said the increased presence of forces from Iran would provide more motivation for Turkey to go on the offensive.

“Some [areas] have noticed a Russian withdrawal and it was filled by Iranian forces instead. If Iran is increasing their influence, then also Turkey has to get in,” he said.

Turkey and Iran are long-time rivals, battling for influence in the region and taking opposing sides in Syria where Tehran backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The Ghosts of Putin’s Bloody Past Are Back With a Vengeance

Ismail added there was a noticeable decrease in Russia’s presence a month ago, specifically in areas around Tal Rifaat, going towards the west of the Euphrates river.

Soon after, Erdogan announced on June 1 that the military operation would be carried out in Tal Rifaat, along with Manbij.

Ismail believes Kurdish forces would hand over territory to the Syrian regime for protection against a Turkish offensive.

The Syrian Democratic Forces said earlier this month that it may cooperate with Damascus if Ankara carries out an incursion.

That would be another motivation for an operation by Ankara as the increased regime presence could push civilians fearful of Assad towards the border, potentially leading to more refugees in Turkey.

But civilians in Syria also fear Turkey and its allies, said Ismail.

In 2020, a UN war crimes expert stated that the SNA may have committed torture and looting in northern Syria.

“There’s no clean war,” Ismail stated. “International forces [are] going to decide everything on the ground.”

Business Insider

The Russian air force’s struggles in Ukraine are surprising because they’re fighting ‘their own systems,’ top US Air Force general says

Christopher Woody – June 22, 2022

• Russia’s inability to achieve air superiority is one of the biggest surprises of the war in Ukraine.
• Russia’s air force has been unable to ground Ukrainian aircraft or overcome Ukrainian air defenses.
• That’s surprising because they use some of the same equipment, Gen. Charles Brown Jr. said Wednesday.

The Russian air force’s failure to gain control of the air over Ukraine and its struggles to operate effectively against Ukrainian air defenses are among the biggest surprises in the four-month war.

Russia’s failure to ground Ukraine’s aircraft and to overcome Ukrainian anti-aircraft weapons contributed to the faltering of Moscow’s initial ground offensive — an unusual outcome because the Russians themselves use many of the same weapons, according to Gen. Charles Brown Jr., the chief of staff of the US Air Force.

“I think for me it’s surprising for the Russians because the systems they’re going against are their own systems. They should know them fairly well and how to defeat them,” Brown said Wednesday at the Hudson Institute, a think tank in Washington DC.

“It kind of begs a real question for me: How come they don’t understand their own systems and how they might defeat their own systems?” Brown added.

Like other former Soviet republics, Ukraine still uses Soviet-origin military hardware. Among its fixed-wing fleet are Su-24 and Su-25 attack aircraft and MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets.

The Russian military operates upgraded versions of those jets as well as more advanced fighter and attack jets, many of which were deployed near Ukraine’s borders prior to Russia’s attack on February 24.

Ukraine also operates Soviet- or Russian-origin air-defense systems and missiles, some of which were donated by neighboring countries. It has also shot down Russian aircraft with the Soviet-designed S-300 air-defense system, the vulnerabilities of which should be well known to Russian mission planners and pilots. Ukrainians have also captured Russian anti-aircraft weapons.

Like the Soviet-made aircraft operated by some NATO member militaries, Ukraine’s jets and helicopters are aging and finding spare parts and expertise to keep them in operation has grown harder as time passes and tensions have risen.

Ukrainians have repeatedly asked the US and others to provide advanced Western-made fighter jets, but those countries have declined due to concerns about escalation with Russia and doubts about Ukraine’s ability to use them effectively.

The absence of large-scale Russian air operations in Ukraine perplexed observers and led analysts to conclude that Russia’s air force was not as capable as believed. Russian failure to suppress and destroy Ukrainian air defenses is also seen as a major shortcoming that has reduced Russian ground forces’ ability to seize territory rapidly.

In his remarks Wednesday, Brown contrasted Russia’s performance in Ukraine with the US military’s emphasis on achieving air superiority, pointing to US air operations against Iraq during the first Gulf War of 1991.

“We were able to take out many of the surface-to-air defense systems to clear areas so then we could provide air superiority over the areas where the ground forces were operating,” Brown said. “That’s not the way the Russians have operated. They really haven’t looked at suppressing air defense.

Russian air power has moved closer to where Russian troops have superiority on the ground, Brown added. “They kind of stuck to where they were overhead of where their ground forces were [and] wouldn’t venture very far because of what the Ukrainians were able to do with their air defenses.”

Brown credited the Ukrainians for being “fairly dynamic” with their air-defense systems, which have been bolstered by thousands of portable weapons, including US-made Stinger missiles, supplied by NATO countries.

Being dynamic has “made it more difficult” for the Russians, Brown said. “If you can’t do dynamic targeting very well, you’re going to have a hard time hitting moving targets. That’s something I think we do fairly well and it’s something we’re going to continue to work on.”

While losses on both sides are unclear, Ukraine said in mid-May that it had destroyed 200 Russian aircraft.

Russia appears to have reduced its ambitions in Ukraine in recent weeks, focusing on operations in eastern Ukraine and using bombardment by long-range artillery and other weapons to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.

Eastern Ukraine’s geography is less hospitable to Ukrainian aircraft and air defenses and will likely allow Russia to gain some local air superiority, but shortages of weapons and equipment for close air support and a lack of training for that complicated mission will limit Russia’s ability to exploit that advantage, according to Justin Bronk, an expert on air warfare at British defense think tank RUSI.

Business Insider

Telecom workers in occupied parts of Ukraine destroyed software to avoid Russian control over data and communications

Britney Nguyen – June 22, 2022

• Ukrainian telecom employees destroyed equipment in Russian-occupied areas to avoid Russian control.
• Ukrtelecom is the largest fixed-line operator in Ukraine, its CEO, Yuriy Kurmaz, told Bloomberg.
• Some of the company’s facilities have been destroyed or damaged during Russia’s war in Ukraine.

In Ukraine’s occupied territories, workers at one of the country’s leading telecommunications providers destroyed equipment to avoid Russian control of internet and phone services.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Ukrtelecom’s chief executive officer, Yuriy Kurmaz, said employees at the company have experienced threats and some have been imprisoned by Russian forces throughout occupied territories in southern and eastern Ukraine.

As Russian forces try to take over parts of Ukraine, Kurmaz told Bloomberg they’ve tried taking over parts of Ukrtelecom’s network through hacking and cyberattacks, which the company has endured since March.

But instead of letting Russian forces take control of the network, employees at Ukrtelecom facilities in the occupied territories “decided to delete crucial files from computers,” Kurmaz told Bloomberg.

“They put pressure on our employees to obtain the technical details of our network infrastructure,” Kurmaz said about Russian personnel in the area. “But they failed.”

Kurmaz told Bloomberg that his employees “completely destroyed the software,” so the Russians couldn’t connect their own equipment to Ukrainian networks.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, Russian forces have refocused their efforts to the eastern part of Ukraine since it failed to capture the capital city of Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been asking the West for more weapons, while his senior adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, told the BBC that the country was losing 100 to 200 soldiers each day.

Ukrtelecom is Ukraine’s largest fixed line operator, according to Kurmaz, and is used by the public, the Ukrainian military, and some Ukrainian government agencies.

The telecom provider is owned by Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov.

During Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kurmaz told Bloomberg that more than 30 of Ukrtelecom’s facilities have been destroyed, and about 100 others have been damaged. But, Kurmaz said the company’s been able to continue serving customers in over 80% of localities where it operates.

In an interview with Ukrinform, a state information and news agency in Ukraine, Kurmaz said Ukrtelecom was able to restore its landline phone network in over 1,200 settlements, and more than 350,000 households have communication services.

Due to the war, Ukrinform reported that telecom service is not available in the Luhansk and Kherson regions of Ukraine.

Bloomberg reported that some smaller internet providers in occupied parts of Ukraine are operating under Russian control, but Ukrtelecom disconnected its networks in those parts of the country.

“Our strong position is we will never collaborate,” Kurmaz told Bloomberg.