How Ukraine’s mud became a secret weapon in its defense against Russia

CNBC News

How Ukraine’s mud became a secret weapon in its defense against Russia

Holly Ellyatt – April 21, 2022

  • When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, its military commanders were widely seen to have discounted one very unconventional but effective weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal.
  • The timing of Russia’s invasion, which began on Feb. 24, coincided with what is known locally as the “muddy road season,” or “Rasputitsa” in Russian.
  • Mud can make Ukraine’s terrain and unpaved roads virtually unpassable.
A member of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces stands on a damaged Russian tank on the outskirts of Nova Basan village in Ukraine on April 01, 2022.

A member of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces stands on a damaged Russian tank on the outskirts of Nova Basan village in Ukraine on April 01, 2022. Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24 coincided with what’s known locally as the “muddy road season,” or “Rasputitsa” in Russian.Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, its military commanders were widely seen to have discounted one very unconventional but effective “weapon” in Ukraine’s arsenal: its infamous muddy season.

The timing of Russia’s invasion, which began on Feb. 24, coincided with what is known locally as the “muddy road season,” or “Rasputitsa” in Russian. It’s a phenomenon that takes place twice a year, first in spring — when the winter freeze subsides and the country’s terrain and unpaved roads become virtually unpassable as they turn to mud — and then in the fall, when there can be heavy rain.

The mud is seen by military experts to have helped to slow Russia’s advance in parts of the country, particularly the north. Images and video circulating online have shown Russian tanks, trucks and other armored vehicles stuck and abandoned on muddy roads or fields in Ukraine.

That’s prompted some disbelief among Russia analysts and military experts, who said Russia’s military commanders should have been better prepared for conditions on the ground, and able to avoid the quagmire caused by Ukraine’s muddy spring terrain.

It’s a phenomenon familiar in the history books: Napoleon Bonaparte’s invasion of Russia in 1812 was famously slowed by the mud, as were Hitler’s armies, which invaded the then-Soviet Union in 1941 and encountered the same logistical problems posed by the mud and inhospitable terrain that Russian troops have faced in the last few weeks.

A photo taken in the spring of 1942 of German army vehicles on muddy terrain in Ukraine, then a part of the Soviet Union.

A photo taken in the spring of 1942 of German army vehicles on muddy terrain in Ukraine, then a part of the Soviet Union.Ullstein Bild | Ullstein Bild | Getty Images

Russia’s military should’ve known better what conditions their forces would face, experts said.

“Ukrainian mud and what is known in Russian as ‘rasputitsa’ is the period after the winter where you get impassable roads … this has been known about for hundreds of years, literally Napoleon had this problem. So yes, it is a tactical feature that is advantageous for the Ukrainians and it was particularly important in the north where it is a lot more wooded,” Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC.

It was initially believed that Russia would achieve a quick victory in Ukraine. But the country faced strong resistance from Ukrainian forces, which Western allies have helped to equip with weaponry.

Prior to the invasion, Russia had amassed over 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine and had carried out military drills with its ally Belarus, which lies to the north of Ukraine. But Moscow had insisted repeatedly that it had no plans to invade.

Russian and Belarusian armed forces conduct joint military drills on Feb. 12, 2022.

Russian and Belarusian armed forces conduct joint military drills on Feb. 12, 2022. Despite such military exercises ahead of the invasion, military analysts have said the first phase of the war showed a lack of planning, preparedness and tactical skill among Russia’s military command and soldiers, many of whom are conscripts.Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Despite the military exercises ahead of the invasion, military analysts have said the first phase of the war — which has seen Russia gain ground in the south and east of the country but fail to make strides in the north, with its forces now pulled back and concentrating on eastern Ukraine — showed a lack of planning, preparedness and tactical skill among its military command and soldiers, many of whom are conscripts.

Hess said just Russia’s inability to deal with Ukraine’s muddy season “shows real issues with the professionalism of the military.”

“It raises real questions for me … the Russians have been doing these [military] drills and practicing this foreign invasion for almost a decade now and they still didn’t think, or didn’t have enough coordination, to put the right units in the right places, and to move in the right way to best deal with something [the mud] that has literally been known to be a problem for 300 years.”

U.S. intelligence suggested that Russia had wished to invade Ukraine earlier in the year but had postponed its offensive at the behest of China so it would not overshadow the Beijing Winter Olympics that ended on Feb. 20.

A Russian tank seized inside of the woodland is examined by Ukrainian soldiers in Irpin, Ukraine on April 01, 2022.

Ukrainian soldiers examine a seized Russian tank at a woodland in Irpin, Ukraine, on April 01, 2022.Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Sam Cranny-Evans, a research analyst at the U.K. defense think tank RUSI, told CNBC that most of Russia’s military vehicles would have been able to cope with the mud in Ukraine, but problems had arisen from multiple vehicles using the same tracks, a foreseeable problem for any military commander with a basic understanding of “terramechanics” — or “the interaction of soil with off road vehicles.”

“A lot of their vehicles would be fine moving through mud, providing that they didn’t repeatedly drive through the same track,” he said.

“But I would argue that other things have limited their maneuver more in terms of their reliance on railheads and roads for their logistics,” he said, adding that the size of Ukraine also posed an extra challenge to Russia’s war machine, particularly for units farther away from Russia, such as those in northern Ukraine.

Many of these units have since beaten a tactical retreat to focus on eastern and southern regions, where the second phase of the war is currently playing out in the Donbas and along the Black Sea.

Another Russian army tank recaptured by the Ukrainian army Borodyanka city near Kyiv, Ukraine, in early April.

Another Russian army tank recaptured by the Ukrainian army Borodyanka city near Kyiv, Ukraine, in early April.Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

He Was a Penniless Donor to the Far Right. He Was Also a Russian Spy.

The New York Times

He Was a Penniless Donor to the Far Right. He Was Also a Russian Spy.

Andrew Higgins – April 21, 2022

The center of Kosice, Slovakia, where an investigation exposed how Russian clandestine operations are trying to sow discord in Europe, seen here on April 9, 2022. (Brendan Hoffman/The New York Times)
The center of Kosice, Slovakia, where an investigation exposed how Russian clandestine operations are trying to sow discord in Europe, seen here on April 9, 2022. (Brendan Hoffman/The New York Times)

KOSICE, Slovakia — He lived with his sick mother and never had a regular job. He had no obvious source of income and, according to his uncle, even signed up for welfare benefits as a caregiver deserving of state support.

But Bohus Garbar, down on his luck and in his early 50s, still managed to donate thousands of euros to Kremlin-friendly, far-right political parties in Slovakia. He also worked for free as a contributor to an anti-establishment website notorious for recycling Russian propaganda.

Family and friends are mystified.

“He definitely wasn’t in a state where he could support any political party,” said Garbar’s uncle, Bohuslav Garbar, a retired computer programmer in the family’s hometown of Kosice, 50 miles from Slovakia’s eastern border with Ukraine.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-10-1/html/r-sf-flx.html

A Slovak security service surveillance video, made public in early March, provides at least the start of an explanation: It shows his nephew receiving instructions and two 500-euro bills, a small part of what officials say were tens of thousands of euros in payments, from a Russian military intelligence officer masquerading as a diplomat at Moscow’s embassy in Bratislava, the Slovak capital.

“I told Moscow that you are such a good boy,” the Russian spy, Sergei Solomasov, can be heard telling his Slovak recruit before explaining that Moscow would like Bohus Garbar to act as a “hunter” on the prowl for people of influence willing to cooperate with Russia.

For years, European intelligence agencies have sounded the alarm over the clandestine activities of Russian spies, while regarding with suspicion those who cheerlead for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. Moscow routinely dismissed this as paranoid “Russophobia,” its catchall response to nearly all foreign criticism.

The invasion of Ukraine, accompanied by a barrage of transparent lies, however, has vindicated the darkest Western suspicions and accelerated efforts to uproot hidden networks of spies and their recruits.

Slovakia, a small Slavic nation with a strongly pro-Western government but also large reserves of genuine, homegrown sympathy for Russia, shows in microcosm how the Kremlin has sought to win influence and sow discord on Europe’s formerly communist eastern fringe by leveraging spies, paid helpers, far-right nationalists and disinformation-spouting media.

“We always suspected this was happening, but now we have a smoking gun,” said Daniel Milo, director of a Slovakian Interior Ministry unit responsible for monitoring and countering disinformation. “This is a clear example of how the Russians operate.”

Garbar, he added, “is just the tip of the iceberg. We don’t know yet how many other Garbars are out there running around.”

The video of Garbar’s rendezvous with Solomasov, the Russian spy, was recorded last year by Slovakia’s military intelligence agency as part of a long investigation. Solomasov was expelled early last month, among more than 30 Russian diplomats recently sent home from Bratislava, as well as scores more from other European capitals.

Garbar, arrested and charged with espionage and bribe-taking, has been released from detention pending his trial. The former vice-rector of Slovakia’s military academy was also charged with betraying his country to Russia for money.

Officials say both have confessed and are now cooperating with investigators.

“They are talking and talking and talking, and this has to make the Russian network in Slovakia very nervous,” Slovakian Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said.

Russia has not commented on Garbar’s liaison with Russian military intelligence, but it called the expulsion of Solomasov “groundless.”

Russia’s push for influence, officials say, kicked into high gear after its 2014 annexation of Crimea and initial invasion of eastern Ukraine, generating a flood of Russian disinformation in Slovakia and across the region. Friendly outlets routinely portray Russia as a champion of peace and lodestar of Christian values, while casting NATO as a warmongering menace.

Helping this push in Slovakia and neighboring countries was Alexander Usovsky, a freelance Russian nationalist agitator who received funding from Konstantin Malofeev, a wealthy private businessman in Moscow whom the U.S. Treasury on Wednesday named as the leader of a “malign influence network” working to undermine sanctions.

Usovsky set up the East European Cultural Initiative in Bratislava and various websites across East and Central Europe to rally support for Russia and its seizure of Crimea. His privately funded ventures, unlike Garbar’s operations, gave the Russian state plausible deniability but fizzled when money from Malofeev ran out.

In a survey released last year by Globsec, a Bratislava research group, more than half of those surveyed in Slovakia said they viewed Putin positively, compared with 12% in neighboring Poland and 13% in Lithuania.

If an unlikely enabler, Garber proved a valuable conduit who donated large sums of money to nationalist parties enamored with Moscow. One beneficiary was ultranationalist politician Marian Kotleba, who was given a six-month suspended jail sentence this month and stripped of his seat in Parliament for using Nazi-themed symbols.

After winning election as a regional governor in 2013, Kotleba put up a banner outside his office: “Yankees go home! STOP NATO!”

Official records show that Garbar donated 10,000 euros (about $10,850) to Kotleba’s xenophobic party before parliamentary elections in 2016, making him its second biggest donor. Kotleba’s campaign slogans for that election included “For Slavic brotherhood, against a war with Russia!” In 2018, Garbar donated a further 4,500 euros (about $4,880) to one of Kotleba’s pro-Russian partner parties.

Investigators have also examined Garbar’s work as an unpaid contributor and translator for Hlavne Spravy, or Main News. Slovak authorities shut down the website, which calls itself a “conservative daily,” in early March for unspecified “harmful activity,” shortly after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It still operates, in a reduced form, on Facebook, which Victor Breiner, an adviser to the Slovak defense minister, described as “the main arena now for Kremlin propaganda.”

In the weeks before Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Main News often echoed Kremlin talking points, mocking U.S. warnings of a coming attack on Ukraine as “hysteria without end” and instead blaming NATO for rising tensions.

Robert Sopko, founder and editor of Main News, which he runs from his apartment in Kosice, scorned the security service video — first published by a rival and liberal-leaning media outlet, Dennik N — as a “spy parody” and said he knew nothing of his unpaid helper’s paid work for Russian military intelligence. “We were all very surprised by it, everybody who knows him,” he said.

Sopko said he set up Main News after attending an anti-abortion protest in 2012 that mainstream media outlets all ignored. Without alternative news sources, he decided, “our opinions, the Christian-conservative view, will be pushed out from the public space completely.” Russia, he added, “is more normal” than the liberal West.

He denied taking money himself from Russia other than what he said were payments of around 600 euros (about $650) to cover the cost of ads that the Russian Embassy had placed on his site.

Sopko contended that Main News was not overly pro-Russian, although he conceded that “maybe we rooted a little bit more for Russia” to counter what he called “American propaganda” published elsewhere. He also acknowledged that his staff had for four years included Yevgeny Palcev, a Russian resident of Slovakia with ties to state media in Moscow, who wrote fiercely pro-Kremlin articles for the website under a pseudonym.

They parted ways in 2018. “We liked Russia but not like that. Not that much,” Sopko recalled.

He said he had known Garbar for 30 years and insisted that his old friend only wrote occasional articles about China. Officials say otherwise. “He was very much involved in writing about lots of things other than China” and spreading “classic Russia propaganda narratives,” said Nad, Slovakia’s defense minister.

Miroslava Sawiris, an expert on disinformation and adviser to the Slovak government’s Security Council, said the Main News website was “quite sophisticated and did not just spew nonsense.” She said “openly pro-Kremlin” stories accounted for around 20% of the content but achieved unusual reach and influence because of the site’s popularity.

In recent years, as the far right surged in Europe, Main News became what Matej Kandrik, director of the Strategic Policy Institute, a Slovak research group, described as “the hegemon” in the “media family of alternative news and conspiracy theories.”

It was particularly influential, for example, in stoking fierce opposition early this year to a proposed defense pact between Slovakia and the United States. The pact, which was finally approved by the Slovak Parliament shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “activated all the pro-Russian players” in a “massive anti-America reaction,” said Michal Trnka, the chief executive of Gerulata Technologies, a Bratislava company focused on data analysis.

Like many other Russia-friendly media outlets, Main News was thrown off balance by Putin’s onslaught against Ukraine and struggled for several days to explain it. Sopko said he and his staff had decided that Russia should be criticized just as “we criticized America’s imperialist wars,” but by then their site was shut down.

In the video of his meeting with the Russian spy, Garbar explains that finding useful people to work for Moscow could be difficult because those who support Russia tend to be marginal types with no real influence or access to information.

“There are many people who are pro-Russian, but they are irrelevant,” Garbar warned Solomasov. “They’d give you nothing.”

Garbar’s uncle said he was mystified that his nephew, who was always fascinated by American culture, particularly heavy metal bands like Metallica, would ever get entangled with Russia. “This whole Russian thing is very strange. He must have gotten into some sort of environment where something happened,” he said.

Sawiris, the government expert on disinformation, said she did not know what had happened to Garbar but worries that “there is no limit to the impact propaganda can have on the human mind, as we now see in Russia.” Since Russia invaded Ukraine, she added, “the curtain has fallen and lots of things have become obvious.”

Russian general says Moscow aims to control all of southern Ukraine

Reuters

Russian general says Moscow aims to control all of southern Ukraine

Pavel Polityuk – April 21, 2022

KYIV/MARIUPOL (Reuters) -Moscow wants to take full control over southern Ukraine, a Russian general said on Friday, a statement Ukraine said gave the lie to Russia’s previous assertions that it had no territorial ambitions.

Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia’s central military district, was quoted by Russian state news agencies as saying full control over southern Ukraine would give it access to a breakaway, Russian-occupied part of Moldova in the west.

That would cut off Ukraine’s entire coastline and mean pushing hundreds of miles west beyond current lines, past the major Ukrainian cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa.

Moscow says it is conducting a “special military operation” to demilitarise Ukraine and liberate its population from people it calls dangerous nationalists. Ukraine and its Western allies call Russia’s invasion an unjustified war of aggression.

“They stopped hiding it,” Ukraine’s defence ministry said on Twitter. Russia had “acknowledged that the goal of the ‘second phase’ of the war is not victory over the mythical Nazis, but simply the occupation of eastern and southern Ukraine. Imperialism as it is.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment when asked if Russia had expanded the goals of its operation and how Moscow saw the political future of southern Ukraine.

A senior EU official said the next couple of weeks were likely to be decisive.

“This is not a fairy tale with an imminent happy ending. I think we are likely to see a very significant increase in the intensity of Russian military attacks in the east, I think we are likely to see an intensification of Russian military attacks along the coast,” the official told reporters.

Ukraine’s general staff said Russian forces had increased attacks all along the frontline in the east and were trying to mount an offensive in the Kharkiv region, north of their main target, the Donbas.

Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had captured a large arms depot in the Kharkiv region. It also reported hitting dozens of targets in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions on Friday.

In Kharkiv city, Russian shellfire hit the main Barabashovo market. Ambulance services said there had been casualties but no details were available yet. A wedding hall and a residential building were also struck.

WAR CRIMES

In Geneva, the United Nations human rights office said there was growing evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine, including indiscriminate shelling and summary executions. It said Ukraine also appeared to have used weapons with indiscriminate effects.

Russia denies targeting civilians and says, without evidence, that signs of atrocities committed by its soldiers were faked. Ukraine has previously said it will punish any soldiers found to have committed war crimes. The government did not respond immediately to the U.N. human rights office remarks.

Russia said on Thursday it had won the war’s biggest fight – the battle for Mariupol, the main port of the Donbas, after a nearly two-month siege.

President Vladimir Putin said the army would not try to root out thousands of Ukrainian troops still holed up in a huge steel works there but would barricade them inside. On Friday Russia’s defence ministry said they remained “securely blockaded”.

Washington dismissed Russia’s announcement.

“We still assess that Mariupol is contested, that it hasn’t been taken by the Russians and that there’s still an active Ukrainian resistance,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told CNN.

In a Russian-held section of the city, the guns had largely fallen silent and dazed-looking residents ventured out into streets on Thursday to a background of charred apartment blocks and wrecked cars. Some carried suitcases.

Volunteers in white hazmat suits and masks roved the ruins, collecting bodies from inside apartments and loading them on to a truck marked with the letter “Z”, symbol of Russia’s invasion.

Maxar, a commercial satellite company, said images from space showed freshly dug mass graves on the city’s outskirts.

Ukraine estimates tens of thousands of civilians have died in the city during Russia’s bombardment and siege and says 100,000 civilians are still there and need full evacuation.

Relatives of Mariupol residents feared the worst. Sofia Telehina said her grandmother had cried constantly when they last spoke by phone and said everything was bombed to pieces. “Since then I’ve not been able to reach her.”

‘DEMOLISHING EVERYTHING’

In Zaporizhzhia, where 79 Mariupol residents arrived in the first convoy of buses permitted by Russia to leave for other parts of Ukraine, Valentyna Andrushenko held back tears as she recalled the ordeal under siege.

“They (Russians) were bombing us from day one. They are demolishing everything,” she said of the city.

Moscow says it has taken 140,000 Mariupol residents to Russia. Kyiv says many of these were forcibly deported in what would be a war crime.

In a late-night address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia was doing all it could “to talk about at least some victories” after failing to capture the capital Kyiv.

“They can only postpone the inevitable – the time when the invaders will have to leave our territory, including from Mariupol, a city that continues to resist Russia regardless of what the occupiers say,” Zelenskiy said.

Minnekayev, the Russian general, said Russian speakers were oppressed in Transdnistria, a Russian-occupied breakaway part of Moldova on Ukraine’s southwestern border. Moldova and Western leaders say that is untrue.

Moscow gave the same justification for its 2014 annexation of Crimea and backing of separatists in Donbas. Ukraine says it fears Moscow might try to organise fake independence votes in southern areas as it did in the east and Crimea.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will visit Moscow on Tuesday to discuss urgently bringing peace to Ukraine, a spokesperson said, adding that Guterres might also visit Kyiv.

(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk in Kyiv, Reuters journalists in Mariupol, Issam Abdallah in Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandr Lapshyn in KharkivWriting by Peter Graff and Philippa Fletcher; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Gareth Jones)

Putin calls off plan to storm Mariupol plant, opts for blockade instead

Reuters

Putin calls off plan to storm Mariupol plant, opts for blockade instead

April 21, 2022

Smoke rises above a plant of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works company in Mariupol
Smoke rises above a plant of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works company in Mariupol
A view shows a plant of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works company in Mariupol
A view shows a plant of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works company in Mariupol
FILE PHOTO: A view shows damaged buildings in Mariupol
 A view shows damaged buildings in Mariupol
FILE PHOTO: Smoke rises above Azovstal steelworks, in Mariupol
Smoke rises above Azovstal steelworks, in Mariupol
A view shows damaged buildings in Mariupol
A view shows damaged buildings in Mariupol

(Reuters) -President Vladimir Putin called off plans for the Russian military to storm the sprawling Azovstal steel plant in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol and said on Thursday he wanted Ukrainian forces there to be hermetically sealed in instead.

The full capture of Mariupol, which has been besieged by Russian forces for weeks, is a central part of Moscow’s plans to cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov and forge a land bridge connecting Russian-annexed Crimea to Russia.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechnya region whose forces have been fighting in Mariupol, had suggested that the vast Azovstal facility, which covers more than 11 square kilometres (4.25 square miles), would be stormed after Ukrainian forces holed up inside ignored Russian offers to surrender.

But Putin, in a Kremlin meeting with Sergei Shoigu, his defense minister, gave the order to call off the plan to storm it, saying it was better to save the lives of Russian soldiers and officers and to sit back and wait while Ukrainian forces ran out of supplies.

“I consider the proposed storming of the industrial zone unnecessary,” Putin told Shoigu in a televised meeting at the Kremlin. “I order you to cancel it.

There is no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground through these industrial facilities,” he told Shoigu.

“Block off this industrial area so that a fly cannot not pass through.”

Putin called on the remaining Ukrainian fighters in Azovstal to lay down their arms, saying Russia would treat them with respect and provide medical assistance to those injured.

Shoigu had earlier told Putin that more than 2,000 Ukrainian fighters were still holed up in the plant and that it might take three or four days to take control of the facility.

Shoigu told Putin that Mariupol had symbolic importance for Russia because it was what he called the de facto headquarters of the far-right nationalist Azov battalion which Moscow has promised to destroy.

The Azovstal iron and steel works, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants, lies in an industrial area that looks out to the Sea of Azov. It houses a multitude of buildings, blast furnaces and rail tracks and has extensive underground facilities too.

‘THEY ARE HEROES’

Putin congratulated his defence minister for what he called the successful military operation to “liberate Mariupol” and asked him to pass on his thanks to Russian troops.

“I want them all to know: in our minds, in the minds of all of Russia, they are heroes,” Putin said.

Russia is due to celebrate its annual victory day holiday on May 9, when it commemorates the World War Two Soviet victory over Nazi Germany and is likely to hold up the full capture of Mariupol when it happens as proof that it is making gains in Ukraine despite heavy losses.

Shoigu told Putin that Russia had killed more than 4,000 Ukrainian troops in its campaign to take Mariupol and that 1,478 had given themselves up. He said Russia had evacuated 142,711 civilians from the city too.

Putin asked Shoigu for his ministry to come up with new proposals on supporting Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

“We need to think about additional support measures, and in some cases, about perpetuating the memory of our comrades who showed heroism and sacrificed their lives for the peaceful life of our people in Donbas (eastern Ukraine) and to ensure the peaceful life and existence of Russia itself, the peaceful existence of our country,” Putin said.

Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it called a special military operation to degrade its southern neighbour’s military capabilities and root out people it called dangerous nationalists.

Ukrainian forces have mounted stiff resistance and the West has imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow in an effort to force it to withdraw its forces.

(Reporting by Reuters)

Ukrainian commander of Mariupol’s last stronghold tells Insider that his forces ‘won’t lay down our weapons’ in face of Russian siege

Business Insider

Ukrainian commander of Mariupol’s last stronghold tells Insider that his forces ‘won’t lay down our weapons’ in face of Russian siege

Mattathias Schwartz and Michael Fedynsky – April 21, 2022

Azovstal Iron and Steel Works Mariupol
Smoke rises above the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works, where Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are under siege by Russian forces.Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

The commander of the last Ukrainian forces defending the port city of Mariupol, speaking early this morning from the steel plant under siege by Russian troops, told Insider that he and his soldiers will not surrender.

“We’re not even considering that possibility,” Major Serhiy Volyna said in an interview conducted via WhatsApp, speaking in calm, measured tones with the voices of his troops audible in the background. “We won’t lay down our weapons.”

Hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin called off an assault on the Azovstal steel plant, where hundreds of Ukrainian troops have taken refuge in a network of underground bunkers built by the Soviet Union, saying such a move was “impractical.” In a televised meeting, Putin called on the Ukrainians inside the plant to lay down their arms, insisting that Russia would guarantee them “their lives and dignified treatment.”

But Volyna, citing Ukrainian soldiers who were killed by Russian-backed forces in 2014 while waving the white flag in the town of Illovaisk, said he did not believe Putin’s assurances. In fact, he told Insider, Russian forces continued to bombard the steel plant even after Putin declared that he had “canceled” the assault.

Selfie of Major Serhiy Volyna
Major Serhiy Volyna, commander of the last Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol, sent Insider this selfie early Thursday morning.Serhiy Volyna via Michael Fedynsky

“The shelling has lessened a bit, but it continues,” Volyna said. “We’re fighting to our last strength. The enemy has an advantage in equipment, supplies, personnel, weapons, the ability to maneuver, artillery, sea and air — literally everything.”

Volyna, who has fought in Mariupol since Russia’s invasion in February, told Insider that “hundreds” of civilians are huddled with his forces inside the plant, including women and children. Many, he said, are wounded and need medical attention. With Russia now blockading the plant, those inside are being forced to choose between starvation and surrender to forces that have already engaged in the documented killing of unarmed civilians. Russia has made numerous failed attempts to capture the fortified plant, using troops, artillery, and air strikes.

There are talks between Russia and Ukraine to coordinate the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol, but similar plans elsewhere have failed. Volyna said the civilians inside the steel plant are skeptical of the plan, having seen Russian forces attack residential buildings and a maternity ward.

“They don’t trust the Russians and don’t trust the green corridors,” he said, referring to pathways established for evacuations. What is needed, Volyna said, was an extraction supervised by the international community.

“It is possible to give life to the soldiers and civilians who have been under full siege for 56 days,” he said. “We are waiting for help, and so we are forced to turn to the world.”

Mattathias Schwartz is a senior correspondent at Insider.

Michael Fedynsky is a former Fulbright student in Kyiv who now works in international development. He is based in Washington D.C.

After 20,000 Dead Troops Putin Suddenly Claims to Care About Their Lives

Daily Beast

After 20,000 Dead Troops Putin Suddenly Claims to Care About Their Lives

Allison Quinn – April 21, 2022

via Twitter
via Twitter

For the first time since Russia launched its all-out war against Ukraine on Feb. 24, Vladimir Putin on Thursday publicly flaunted his role as commander-in-chief, ordering his defense minister to halt plans to storm the last bastion of Ukrainian military resistance in Mariupol.

“I consider the proposed storming of the industrial zone unnecessary. I order you to cancel it,” he told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in a televised meeting, referring to Russian troops’ bid to storm the Azovstal plant where the last remaining Ukrainian troops in the city have been fending off a full Russian invasion for weeks. Ukraine has warned that many civilians remain trapped inside the plant as well.

In remarks bound to raise eyebrows after Moscow has spent nearly two months trying to cover up its own devastating losses in Ukraine—during which time they lost some 20,000 troops, according to Ukrainian estimates—Putin went on to claim his decision stemmed from a desire to protect human lives.

“This is an instance when we must think… I mean we must always think, but in the given situation even more so… about the preservation of the lives and health of our soldiers and officers,” he said.

“There’s no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground through these industrial facilities,” he said. “Block off this industrial area so that not even a fly can get through.”

His remarks come after a Ukrainian commander holed up in the plant issued a desperate appeal to the international community earlier this week, warning that “hundreds of civilians” were trapped there and there were “only a few days, or even hours” left for them amid heavy bombardment by Russian troops. On the eve of Putin’s announcement, the Ukrainian presidential administration had also called for negotiations in the city “without any conditions” to “save” Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.

Bizarrely, Putin went on to congratulate Shoigu on what he described as the successful “liberation” of Mariupol, despite the fact that the city has essentially been wiped off the face of the Earth after nearly two months of Russian attacks. (A 91-year-old Jewish survivor of the Nazi occupation of Mariupol in 1941 was among those killed during Russia’s siege, making Putin’s claims of the Kremlin acting to “de-Nazify” Ukraine all the more laughable.)

For many Russia observers, the unexpected announcement was seen as a veiled admission that the Kremlin is becoming aware of its need to save face in light of mounting reports of disillusionment among Russian troops, major losses, and perhaps even the sinking of the country’s most powerful battleship, the Moskva, which sparked outrage even among some of Putin’s most loyal propaganda figures. (Moscow’s repeated claim that all of the 500 or so sailors on board were rescued, and that the ship was not downed by Ukrainian missiles, has been torn to shreds by family members of those on board who disputed those claims in interviews with independent media outlets.)

And even as Putin lauded what he described as a successful operation to take control of Mariupol on Thursday, the city’s mayor said there was new evidence of Russian troops going to great lengths to mask civilian deaths and possibly their own military losses.

“The locals have told us that near Manhush [outside Mariupol] they have dug a 30-meter mass grave and are transporting bodies there in trucks that they are trying to hide,” Vadym Boychenko said in televised comments.

Ukrainian authorities have said that up to 22,000 civilians have been killed in the city since Russia’s takeover on March 1.

Why the battle for Mariupol’s steel mill matters

Associated Press

EXPLAINER: Why the battle for Mariupol’s steel mill matters

The Associated Press – April 21, 2022

FILE - Servicemen of the militia from the Donetsk People's Republic walk past damaged apartment buildings near the Illich Iron & Steel Works Metallurgical Plant, the second-largest metallurgical enterprise in Ukraine, in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, Saturday, April 16, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov)
Servicemen of the militia from the Donetsk People’s Republic walk past damaged apartment buildings near the Illich Iron & Steel Works Metallurgical Plant, the second-largest metallurgical enterprise in Ukraine, in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, Saturday, April 16, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov)
FILE - A man walks in front of harbor cranes at the port in Mariupol, Ukraine, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits, File)
A man walks in front of harbor cranes at the port in Mariupol, Ukraine, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits, File)
FILE - This satellite image from Maxar Technologies on Saturday, March 19, 2022, shows the aftermath of the airstrike on the Mariupol Drama Theater in Mariupol, Ukraine, and the area around it. Since March 1, the Russian military has pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. Among the buildings hit was the theater that was being used as a shelter. (Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies via AP, File)
This satellite image from Maxar Technologies on Saturday, March 19, 2022, shows the aftermath of the airstrike on the Mariupol Drama Theater in Mariupol, Ukraine, and the area around it. Since March 1, the Russian military has pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. Among the buildings hit was the theater that was being used as a shelter. (Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies via AP, File)
FILE - A view inside the Mariupol Drama Theater that was damaged during fighting in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 4, 2022. Since March 1, the Russian military has relentlessly pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. The theater was being used as a shelter when it was hit. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov, File)
A view inside the Mariupol Drama Theater that was damaged during fighting in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 4, 2022. Since March 1, the Russian military has relentlessly pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. The theater was being used as a shelter when it was hit. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov, File)
FILE - A Russian military convoy moves on a highway in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces near Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 16, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov, File)
A Russian military convoy moves on a highway in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces near Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 16, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov, File)
FILE - Serhii, father of Iliya, cries over his teenage son's lifeless body on a stretcher at a maternity hospital converted into a medical ward during the war with Russia in Mariupol, Ukraine, March 2, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
 Serhii, father of Iliya, cries over his teenage son’s lifeless body on a stretcher at a maternity hospital converted into a medical ward during the war with Russia in Mariupol, Ukraine, March 2, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
FILE - People look at a burning apartment building in a yard after shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine, Sunday, March 13, 2022. Since March 1, the Russian military has pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
People look at a burning apartment building in a yard after shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine, Sunday, March 13, 2022. Since March 1, the Russian military has pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
FILE - A woman reacts as she stands with her daughter as she waits for her husband to flee a burning apartment in Mariupol, Ukraine, March 13, 2022. Since March 1, the Russian military has pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
A woman reacts as she stands with her daughter as she waits for her husband to flee a burning apartment in Mariupol, Ukraine, March 13, 2022. Since March 1, the Russian military has pummeled Mariupol with fierce artillery barrages and air raids that have flattened most of what once was a bustling seaside city. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

Russian President Vladimir Putin is claiming control over Ukraine’s port city of Mariupo l even as its defenders are still holding out at a giant seaside steel mill.

His statement reflected the importance of the city on the Sea of Azov and appeared to be an attempt to declare victory without storming the last pocket of Ukrainian resistance there: the massive Azovstal plant.

WHY IS MARIUPOL IMPORTANT?

Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key Russian objective since the Feb. 24 invasion began. Capturing the city would allow the establishment of a land corridor from Russia’s border to Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014. It also would deprive Ukraine of a major port and prized industrial assets.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-10-1/html/r-sf-flx.html

The seven-week siege has tied up significant numbers of Russian forces, which are badly needed for an offensive elsewhere in the Donbas. The region is where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian government forces since 2014, after the Crimea annexation.

HOW HAS THE RUSSIAN SIEGE GONE?

Since it began March 1, the Russian military has pummeled Mariupol relentlessly with artillery barrages and air raids, flattening most of the once-bustling city. The indiscriminate bombardment has hit homes, hospitals and other public buildings, killing thousands. That includes about 300 people killed in an airstrike on the Mariupol Drama Theater that was being used as a shelter, with officials inscribing the Russian word for “CHILDREN” in huge white letters on the pavement outside.

Mayor Vadym Boychenko told The Associated Press that at least 21,000 people were killed in Mariupol, with bodies “carpeted through the streets.” He said Russia deployed mobile cremation equipment to methodically dispose of the remains in order to destroy evidence of the massacre and prevent international organizations from documenting “the horror the Russian army is responsible for.” He alleged bodies also were dumped into mass graves outside the city.

He estimated that 120,000 people remain in Mariupol out of a prewar population of about 450,000.

HOW HAS UKRAINE RESPONDED?

Ukraine sent some of its best troops to defend Mariupol. They included the 36th Marine Brigade, Interior Ministry troops, border guards and the national guard’s Azov Regiment. The regiment is a seasoned volunteer force that is widely considered one of Ukraine’s most capable units and has been singled out by Russia as a particular villain because of its far-right ideology.

Moscow has deployed fighters from Chechnya, known for their ferocity, to wage street battles in Mariupol. Chechnya’s Moscow-backed leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, has repeatedly boasted on social media about defeating Ukrainians in Mariupol, but the fight has continued.

After weeks of house-to-house battles in which Russia has incurred massive losses, including several senior officers, Mariupol’s defenders holed up at the last remaining pocket of resistance — the mammoth Azovstal plant that employed 10,000 workers before the war.

WHY HAS THE BATTLE FOR THE STEEL MILL TAKEN SO LONG?

A few thousand Ukrainian troops, by Moscow’s estimate, remained in the plant, which covers an area of nearly 11 square kilometers (over 4.2 square miles). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said about 1,000 civilians were also trapped in the plant.

Azovstal has a 24-kilometer (15-mile) labyrinth of underground tunnels and passages, which allowed its defenders to maneuver freely to repel the Russian attacks.

Before the war, Ukrainian authorities prepared for the Russian offensive by building up stockpiles of food and water at Azovstal.

“The plant covers a huge area, and the Ukrainians can move through underground tunnels to quickly change location,” said Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov.

“Azovstal is very hard to storm, and the Russians risk losing many troops, resources and, most importantly, time there,” Zhdanov said. “It’s a city within a city, and fighting there could take months.”

He added that “as long as Mariupol holds, the Russians can’t redeploy 10-12 of their elite units to other areas in eastern Ukraine.”

The city “keeps distracting the Russian army forces and thwarting the Kremlin plans for an offensive in the Donbas.”

HOW IS PUTIN PORTRAYING THE BATTLE FOR MARIUPOL?

Putin met Thursday with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said the entire city except Azovstal is now under Russian control. It would take three to four days to flush the Ukrainian troops out of the steel mill, he added.

In a tightly choreographed televised meeting, Putin congratulated the military, saying that “putting such an important center in the south as Mariupol under control is a success.”

At the same time, he ordered Shoigu not to send troops into Azovstal to finish off the resistance, so as to avoid losses. Instead, the plant would be sealed tightly “so that not even a fly comes through.”

The remarks appeared to reflect Putin’s attempt to claim victory without a bloody, all-out assault of the plant in hopes that its defenders will surrender after running out of food and ammunition. Putin said nothing about halting a bombardment of the plant, which will probably continue.

HOW IS UKRAINE RESPONDING?

Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, mocked Putin’s claim of victory, saying it reflects the fact the Russian military “cannot physically capture Azovstal.”

Retired British Rear Adm. Chris Parry described Putin’s remarks as a sign of a shift in approach, observing that “the Russian agenda now is not to capture these really difficult places where the Ukrainians can hold out in the urban centers, but to try and capture territory and also to encircle the Ukrainian forces and declare a huge victory.”

Parry likened the Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol to the battle of Stalingrad, in which the Red Army routed the Nazis blockading the city in a key turning point in World War II.

“I think there’s a great totemic value in the Ukrainians holding on to Mariupol,” Parry said. “If the Ukrainians can hang on to it … elevated to the level of Stalingrad, then I think it’s going to be a major lever for them both in the propaganda war, but also on the ground campaign as well.”

Commanders of Ukrainian units at the plant made a series of desperate video appeals in recent days, saying they are clinging by a thread and begging for help.

Maj. Serhiy Volynskyy of the 36th Marine Brigade said in a video Wednesday that “we are probably facing our last days, if not hours,” adding that “the enemy outnumbers us 10-1.”

“We appeal and plead to all world leaders to help us,” he said, asking world leaders to help safely evacuate the plant’s defenders and civilians holed up there.

Zelenskyy said about 1,000 civilians could be taking shelter in the plant and that “we are open to different formats of exchange of our people for Russian people, Russian military that they have left behind.”

But he added that Russia has stonewalled Ukraine’s attempts for a negotiated exit.

Yuras Karmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, and Danica Kirka in London contributed.

Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine? Economists have a plan for Russia to foot what could be a $1 trillion bill

Fortune

Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine? Economists have a plan for Russia to foot what could be a $1 trillion bill

Vivienne Walt – April 21, 2022

  • Yuriy GorodnichenkoEconomist (University of California-Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute of Labor Economics (IZA))

Even as Russian artillery pummels eastern Ukraine and reduces the southern port of Mariupol to rubble, economists are already calculating how much it will cost to rebuild the country.

The short answer: dizzying amounts of money, and rising all the time.

“Every day of war makes the costs higher and higher,” Yuriy Gorodnichenko, a Ukrainian economist and professor at the University of California Berkeley, told a Zoom meeting of experts this week, on rebuilding the country; he and other economists in the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine drafted a blueprint for Ukraine’s reconstruction, published this month by the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London.

“In the fog of war it’s hard to have any precise estimates,” Gorodnichenko told the meeting. “But we’re talking about hundreds and hundreds of billions of euros.” By comparison, the U.S. spent about $12.5 billion (about $450 billion in today’s dollars) on the Marshall Plan in the 1940s, to help rebuild Europe after the Second World War—which lasted six years. In Ukraine, between €500 billion and €1 trillion (about $545 billion and $1.08 trillion) of capital stock has been destroyed, after just eight weeks of combat.

Tapping frozen Russian assets

The question is, who will pay to rebuild Ukraine?

The economists suggest suing the Russian government for damages, and then using Russian assets that were seized or frozen by the U.S. and European Union after President Vladimir Putin sent his military into Ukraine on Feb. 24. Revenues from Russian oil imports could also be levied with reparations fees—much the same way that Iraq’s oil revenues were used for nearly 30 years to pay reparations to Kuwait, which it invaded in 1990.

Added together, Ukraine could cover much of its losses.

“The gross foreign assets if we include the oligarchs would be roughly around $1 trillion,” says Simon Johnson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “If you damage somebody’s property, if you run someone over with your car, you pay compensations. That’s exactly the legal position you find yourself in.”

The footage of shattered buildings and devastated cities has stunned the world. But economists say there that is not the costliest impact of the war. More serious is the huge loss to Ukraine’s industry, especially in cities that have seen heavy bombardment, like Kharkiv.

“We have lost half of all Ukraine’s metals industry,” Andrii Dligach, founder of the Center for Economic Recovery and an advisor to the Ukraine government, told Fortune on Thursday from Kyiv. “We were one of the top 10 metals producers in the world before the war,” he said, adding that logistics is one of the biggest problems facing the economy.

“There is no sea route anymore because Russia has blocked the ports,” he said. “That was our main direction for exports.”

Half the industrial machinery too

In addition, about half the industrial machinery in the country has been lost, Dligach says. And more than 10% of Ukraine’s businesses have relocated to EU countries since the war broke out. “They probably will not come back in the near future,” he said. “It is a major loss for Ukraine’s GDP.”

About one-quarter of Ukraine’s harvest has also been lost, since Russia has bombed food warehouses, and some agricultural areas are in the combat zones; Ukraine supplies about 9% of the world’s wheat, some of which now have no way to be exported. “About 5 million tons of wheat is held up in Ukraine, and about 10 to 16 tons of corn is still in Ukraine from the previous harvest,” Tymofiy Mylovanov, head of the Kyiv School of Economics, told the Zoom meeting on reconstruction.

The World Bank predicted this month that Ukraine’s GDP could shrink about 45% this year, and that Russia’s economy could contract more than 11%. The bank loaned Ukraine about $723 million during the first weeks of the war to cover emergencies such as paying hospital salaries and pensions.

Economists say Ukraine should use the devastating war as an opportunity to modernize its economy, spending the money not on replacing what was there, but improving on it.

“Ukraine’s industry and infrastructure were built more than 30 years ago,” Dligach, the economic advisor to Ukraine’s government, told Fortune. “We need to use these dramatic days to build a new, modern infrastructure.”

Even as the country fights for its survival.

Ukraine war recasts ‘Navalny’ as a prequel to Putin’s aims

Associated Press

Ukraine war recasts ‘Navalny’ as a prequel to Putin’s aims

Jake Coyle – April 19, 2022

Film Review Navalny
Alexei Navalny appears in a scene from the documentary "Navalny." (Warner Bros. Pictures via AP)
Alexei Navalny appears in a scene from the documentary “Navalny.” (Warner Bros. Pictures via AP)
FILE - Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny looks at photographers standing in the Babuskinsky District Court in Moscow, Russia, Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021. A documentary film, "Navalny," about one of Vladimir Putin's fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)
FILE – Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny looks at photographers standing in the Babuskinsky District Court in Moscow, Russia, Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021. A documentary film, “Navalny,” about one of Vladimir Putin’s fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)
FILE - Opposition leader Alexei Navalny speaks during a rally to protest against alleged vote rigging in Russia's parliamentary elections in Moscow, Russia, on Dec. 24, 2011. A documentary film, "Navalny," about one of Vladimir Putin's fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze, File)
FILE – Opposition leader Alexei Navalny speaks during a rally to protest against alleged vote rigging in Russia’s parliamentary elections in Moscow, Russia, on Dec. 24, 2011. A documentary film, “Navalny,” about one of Vladimir Putin’s fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze, File)
FILE - Police officers detain Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, center, in Moscow, Russia on July 10, 2013. A documentary film, "Navalny," about one of Vladimir Putin's fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Evgeny Feldman, File)
FILE – Police officers detain Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, center, in Moscow, Russia on July 10, 2013. A documentary film, “Navalny,” about one of Vladimir Putin’s fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Evgeny Feldman, File)
FILE - Russian anti-corruption campaigner and Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny poses in his office in Moscow, Russia on March 17, 2010. A documentary film, "Navalny," about one of Vladimir Putin's fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)
FILE – Russian anti-corruption campaigner and Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny poses in his office in Moscow, Russia on March 17, 2010. A documentary film, “Navalny,” about one of Vladimir Putin’s fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)
FILe - In this image made from video provided by the Babuskinsky District Court, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny stands in a cage during a hearing on his charges for defamation, in Moscow, Russia, on Feb. 5, 2021. A documentary film, "Navalny," about one of Vladimir Putin's fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (Babuskinsky District Court via AP)
FILe – In this image made from video provided by the Babuskinsky District Court, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny stands in a cage during a hearing on his charges for defamation, in Moscow, Russia, on Feb. 5, 2021. A documentary film, “Navalny,” about one of Vladimir Putin’s fiercest and most vocal political foes, premieres on CNN and CNN+ on Sunday. (Babuskinsky District Court via AP)
Local civilians walk past a tank destroyed during heavy fighting in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 19, 2022. Taking Mariupol would deprive Ukraine of a vital port and complete a land bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, seized from Ukraine from 2014. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov)
Local civilians walk past a tank destroyed during heavy fighting in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 19, 2022. Taking Mariupol would deprive Ukraine of a vital port and complete a land bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, seized from Ukraine from 2014. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov)
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on economic issues via videoconference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Monday, April 18, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on economic issues via videoconference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Monday, April 18, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

NEW YORK (AP) — When Christo Grozev, executive director of the investigative collective Bellingcat, recently re-watched the new documentary “Navalny,” about the imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, he was struck by how much the film affected him differently since Vladimir Putin launched Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“Navalny,” directed by Daniel Roher, is a gripping portrait of the Russian dissident beginning with the 2020 poisoning that nearly killed him, and which Grozev traced directly to the Kremlin. Grozev uncovered that Navalny had been attacked with the nerve agent Novichok and that the alleged assassination attempt was the work of a Kremlin spy unit. (The Kremlin has denied it.) At the time, Grozev wondered if it would seem too far fetched that Putin would go to such Bond villain extremes.

“When we did the investigation in 2020, I struggled with: How am I going to convince Russian audiences and the world that what I’m saying is true — that the president of a large country that wants to be a moral leader in the world has been assassinating people?” Grozev said in a recent interview. “Now, it doesn’t seem like it’s such a big leap of faith.”

The war in Ukraine has rapidly recast “Navalny,” which premieres 9 p.m. Sunday on CNN and CNN+ after a brief few days in theaters. Since Roher’s film premiered in January at a virtual Sundance Film Festival — where it won both the documentary audience award and the festival favorite award — the geopolitics that “Navalny” documents bracingly in real time have exploded in the open. The Ukraine war, which U.S. President Joe Biden has said constitutes genocide, exposed the grim horror of Putin’s politics to much of the world.

“Navalny” now plays like a prequel to Maria Pevchikh, head of the investigative unit for Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation and an executive producer on the film. “It gives so much context to what’s happening now in Ukraine.

“The world could have and should have understood earlier. Putin could have been stopped in many points in history: after Crimea, after using chemical weapons, after running this assassination squad,” she said. “There have been so many awfully wrong things that we didn’t react strongly enough to.

“Navalny,” which will stream on HBO Max at a later date, was intimately filmed with the Russian opposition leader as he recuperated from the Novichok attack in Germany with his family, and resolved to return to Moscow despite the clear risks. In between, Navalny makes his case for an alternative to Putin while often comically sifting through the details of his near death. In one unbelievable scene — perhaps the first to ever fuse John le Carré and the Jerky Boys — Navalny calls Kremlin agents behind the attack while posing as a Russian bureaucrat filing a report, getting one to divulge plenty of details. With Roher’s fly-on-the-wall cameras, a real-life political thriller unspools starring a very charismatic Putin foe.

“Getting this film out in the world will help the world understand that Vladimir Putin is not Russia and Russia is not Vladimir Putin,” says Roher, the Canadian filmmaker of “Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band.” “What Alexei Navalny is an alternate vision of what the country could be.”

When Navalny landed in Moscow in early 2021, he was greeted by throngs of supporters — and quickly detained. After a year in jail, he was sentenced last month to nine more years for fraud in a case that the State Department condemned as a “sham ruling.” On Twitter, Navalny was characteristically undeterred.

“9 years. Well, as the characters of my favorite TV series ‘The Wire’ used to say: ‘You only do two days. That’s the day you go in and the day you come out.'”

As the war in Ukraine has dragged on and war crimes have been widely alleged against Russia, Navalny has spoken bluntly against the assault. On Tuesday, he claimed a distant relative of his, Ilya Ivanovich Navalny, had been killed in a Ukrainian village. Navalny suggested he had been targeted for his last name by Russia forces.

“It is now everyone’s duty to make at least some, even the smallest contribution to stop this war and remove Putin from power,” said Navalny on Twitter. “Protest wherever and however you can. Agitate however you can and whomever you can. Inaction is the worst possible thing. And now its consequence is death.”

With such stakes, the role of “Navalny” has only intensified, the filmmakers say.

“People are fighting. Navalny is fighting,” says Pevchikh. “We are convinced that it’s never too late to try to stop Putin. To stop him today would be better than stopping him tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.”

In a crackdown on opposition activists and independent journalists, Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation was last year labeled an extremist organization by the Kremlin. Now operating outside Russia, the group has continued running investigations into government corruption, even with its leader behind bars. (In March, its researchers linked a superyacht docked in Italy to Putin.)

Pevchikh hasn’t seen Navalny, himself, in more than a year. At every festival premiere and screening event, she happily stays to watch the documentary again.

“It’s nice to see Alexei out of prison, looking and behaving like he usually does,” says Pevchikh. “It’s always nice to spend an hour and half with your friend, even if it’s just in a movie.”

To help avoid potential sabotage from Russian operatives, the companies behind “Navalny” have kept release plans quiet until the last minute. The film was added to Sundance days before the festival began; its CNN broadcast was announced about a week beforehand. After the film first began screening Roher says he’s been depicted as CIA in Russian state media. He calls getting the film seen in Russia his number one prerogative.

“I wouldn’t want Russians to go on bit torrent sites and try to find it and download it and share it with their friends and families, and maybe set up screenings in their communities and their homes,” says Roher. “I would never suggest that.”

But as much has changed in the three months since “Navalny” first premiered, Roher says that Navalny’s unflinching confidence remains undimmed.

“When you work with Alexei and you spend enough time with the man, you can’t help but be optimistic,” says Roher. “This war that Putin is waging, the war crimes he’s committing, are perhaps the greatest political blunder ever. I would look to history. I would remind readers how quickly the Soviet Union fell. Things change overnight.”

Prominent Russian TV presenter says war ‘against Europe and the world’ is on the way following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine

Business Insider

Prominent Russian TV presenter says war ‘against Europe and the world’ is on the way following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine

Matthew Loh – April 21, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L), TV journalist and writer Vladimir Solovyov (C) and NTV Chief Alexei Zemsky (R) are seen during the reception honoring the 25th anniversary of Russian State Television and Broadcasting Company VGTRK on May 13, 2016 in Sochi, Russia. Russia is being forced to look for ways to neutralize threats to its national security due to deployment of the NATO anti-missile shield in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday after the alliance launched a missile defense site in Romania.
Russian TV journalist Vladimir Solovyov said Russia is already waging a “de facto” war against NATO.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
  • A prominent Russian TV presenter says Moscow’s war in Ukraine will extend to Europe and the world.
  • The Kremlin is already starting to wage a “de facto” war against NATO countries, he said.
  • “Ukrainians alone are no longer enough,” Vladimir Solovyov said, in a clip posted by The Daily Beast’s Julia Davis.

A prominent Russian TV presenter said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is approaching a “new stage” in which Moscow will find itself at war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — and by extension, the entire world.

“I believe the special military operation is entering a new stage. Ukrainians alone are no longer enough,” said Vladimir Solovyov, according to the translation of a video clip tweeted on Thursday by The Daily Beast’s Julia Davis.

In the widely shared clip, Solovyov noted that NATO countries have been supplying weapons to Ukraine. “We’ll see not only NATO weapons being drawn into this, but also their operators,” he warned while speaking on his show “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov.”

Solovyov, a prominent state media figure and supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has often repeated and amplified the Kremlin’s pro-war rhetoric on the state-owned channel Russia-1.

In the clip, he noted that Russia was “starting to wage war against NATO countries.”

We’ll be grinding up NATO’s war machine as well as citizens of NATO countries,” Solovyov said. “When this operation concludes, NATO will have to ask itself: ‘Do we have what we need to defend ourselves? Do we have the people to defend ourselves?’

“And there will be no mercy. There will be no mercy,” he added.

Echoing Putin’s call for the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine, Solovyov said: “Not only will Ukraine have to be denazified, the war against Europe and the world is developing a more specific outline, which means we’ll have to act differently, and to act much more harshly.”

His comments come as several NATO member states announced they would provide Ukrainian troops with advanced weapons and heavy artillery and training on how to use the equipment.

For instance, the US is now sending hundreds of tank-busting “Switchblade” drones designed to crash into targets and explode and dozens of long-range artillery systems called howitzers. The UK has also said it would provide 120 armored vehicles and anti-ship missile systems.

Solovyov’s recent statements on the war align with what some military analysts and Putin critics have predicted: That the Russian leader seeks control of regions beyond Ukraine, particularly Eastern Europe.

“We must understand that, in his head, Putin is at war not with Ukraine,” exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky told CNN on April 4. “He’s at war with the United States and NATO. He said this more than once.”